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Christmas Storm II

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Just for clarification on the 00z runs it looks to be:

NOGAPS

ECMWF

UKMET

(Possibly) NAM

GGEM

JMA

vs.

GFS

DGEX

Yeah, the JMA / GGEM / ECMWF / NOGAPS have a lot of similarities. The UKMet had been consistent with its southerly track, but this last run was much farther south with the upper low getting supressed south and sfc low tracking across central FL

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Yeah, the JMA / GGEM / ECMWF / NOGAPS have a lot of similarities. The UKMet had been consistent with its southerly track, but this last run was much farther south with the upper low getting supressed south and sfc low tracking across central FL

Exactly, but I still believe that's too extreme. I believe HPC is choosing to take the ECMWF at this point.

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Itunis

Itunis

Posted
Posted

FFC is still not buying it, which is understandable at this point. From the looks of it we have the Euro showing a decent snow, the GGEM somewhere in the middle with mostly backend snow for us, and the GFS flipping us the bird. FFC's going to want all of the major models honking on snow before pulling the trigger (or at least the Euro/GGEM staying consistent with their solutions).

I'm starting to become cautiously optimistic that at least part of the SE will see snow fly Christmas day though...NC north of 40 looks to be in a good spot right now.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

FFC is still not buying it, which is understandable at this point. From the looks of it we have the Euro showing a decent snow, the GGEM somewhere in the middle with mostly backend snow for us, and the GFS flipping us the bird. FFC's going to want all of the major models honking on snow before pulling the trigger (or at least the Euro/GGEM staying consistent with their solutions).

I'm starting to become cautiously optimistic that at least part of the SE will see snow fly Christmas day though...NC north of 40 looks to be in a good spot right now.

It all comes down to the phasing process as Matt said in his latest video. and the Euro is a little slower and hence makes the perfect setup.. the GGEM phases a little sooner.

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Weather Czar

Weather Czar

Posted
Posted

The 6z GFS is actually not that bad. If all the other models were north (of the GFS) we would be hopeing that they trend to it. It (6z) would bring light snow, to sleet, and then back to snow across the NC Piedmont of NC. Of course, I do want the eruo and company to win out.......

The 6z gfs ensemble mean is much farther south than the op.

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NegativeTilt

NegativeTilt

Posted
Posted

TAKING A LOOK BACK AT CHRISTMASES PAST... HERE ARE SOME DECEMBER

25TH SNOWFALL AND SNOW DEPTH STATISTICS FOR THE RALEIGH AND

GREENSBORO AREAS. THIS INFORMATION IS FOR THE AIRPORT LOCATIONS...

HOWEVER IT ALSO APPLIES FOR OTHER OBSERVATION SITES IN THE RALEIGH

AREA (STATISTICS DATE BACK TO 1887) AND GREENSBORO AREA (STATISTICS

DATE BACK TO 1903).

AT GSO (PIEDMONT TRIAD INTL AIRPORT) (RECORDS KEPT SINCE 1928):

SNOW HAS FALLEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY ON THREE OCCASIONS... THE LAST

HAVING OCCURRED IN 1947 (2.8 INCHES). MEASURABLE SNOW WAS REPORTED

ON THE GROUND AT 7 AM CHRISTMAS MORNING ON SEVEN OCCASIONS. THE MOST

RECENT OCCURRENCE WAS IN 1966 (2 INCHES ON THE GROUND)... ALTHOUGH

HIGHER TOTALS WERE REPORTED IN 1947 (3 INCHES) AND 1930 (4 INCHES).

AT RDU INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RECORDS KEPT SINCE 1944):

SNOW HAS FALLEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY ON JUST ONE DAY... 0.4 INCHES IN

1947. MEASURABLE SNOW WAS REPORTED ON THE GROUND AT 7 AM CHRISTMAS

MORNING ON JUST ONE OCCASION... 1 INCH IN 1966.

Lets hope this can be amended..

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EmersonGA

EmersonGA

Posted
Posted

I'm still catching up on reading and I don't know if it's been mentioned. The 06z GFS looks as cold as last January starting after Christmas. There are so many hours below freezing its amazing.

Also, I checked out the local news stations to see if anyone had the guts to mention anything. NBC did had the coldest Christmas temps and said that they would have to watch closely. All others had mid 40s and rain.

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msuwx

msuwx

Posted
Posted

Most of the foreign modeling continues to look good for snow fans for much of the region. In fact, I would imagine most snow lovers would take the 0z run of the GEM or Euro and run with it.

We really are attempting to thread the needle here. Two disturbances, their interaction, and the timing of that interaction are the key variables here. If they phase too quickly, you get the GFS....if they phase too slowly, you get the UKMET. If Goldilocks finds the porridge she likes, we get the 0z Euro or GEM.

I am still leaning my forecast in the direction of the GEM and Euro. Until I see a chink in their armor, I see no reason to change. But just remember we are walking the tight-rope here.

If have put up a full blog post and my morning video here on my site.

By the way, here is the data from my 7-day on-air today for the Triad.

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QC_Halo

QC_Halo

Posted
Posted

The forecast on Wunderground for CLT has pushed all in. Who puts the forecast up for them? Does it come directly from the local NWS?

nt_chancesnow.gifFriday Night

Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows around 30. Chance of snow 30 percent.

chancesnow.gifChristmas Day

Mostly cloudy. Snow likely...mainly in the afternoon. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent.

nt_chancesnow.gifSaturday Night

Mostly cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of snow. Cold with lows in the mid 20s.

chancesnow.gifSunday

Mostly sunny. A chance of snow in the morning. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of snow 30 percent.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

I know it is early for QPF numbers. but DAMN those are nice.

qpf:

ATL .50"(some fell before)

BHM .40"

JAN .45"

HSV .45"

BNA .45" (some fell before)

AVL .90" (some fell before)

CLT .60"

GSP .75"

AHN .60"

RDu .90"

ORF 1.30"

CAE .60

Yes. GSP did a great job with that discussion.

:thumbsup: GSP AFD which in my opinion is EXCELLENT:

AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...LOTS TO TALK ABOUT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS

INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE FA ON

CHRISTMAS DAY.

. THE BOTTOM

LINE OF ALL THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL

RATES WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE FA IS

INCREASING.

Great disco last night folks. Took me about 30 mins to read through it.

If this solution sicks, hoping the loop of the needle becomes BIGGER as to help with threading it some Friday....

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

Posted
Posted

The forecast on Wunderground for CLT has pushed all in. Who puts the forecast up for them? Does it come directly from the local NWS?

nt_chancesnow.gifFriday Night

Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows around 30. Chance of snow 30 percent.

chancesnow.gifChristmas Day

Mostly cloudy. Snow likely...mainly in the afternoon. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent.

nt_chancesnow.gifSaturday Night

Mostly cloudy in the evening...then becoming partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of snow. Cold with lows in the mid 20s.

chancesnow.gifSunday

Mostly sunny. A chance of snow in the morning. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of snow 30 percent.

From NWS GSP for my area:

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Christmas Day: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

So yeah I believe so.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

:)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

527 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2010

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WELCOME TO WINTER 2010...OFFICIALLY BEGINNING AT 538 PM CST.

WATCHING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR THIS

MORNING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.

THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY TODAY...SO IT WILL TAKE A LOT TO

GET PRECIPITATION TO THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT TO

CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH. COLD

FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING

LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH NOON.

DRYING OUT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST CHRISTMAS EVE

MORNING. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST GET TRICKY AND INTERESTING. IF

YOU TAKE THE GFS FOR FACE VALUES THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH

OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 BY SATURDAY

MORNING...AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ARE PHASED TOGETHER.

THIS SCENARIO COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THE FAR NORTHERN ROW

OF COUNTIES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES MIXED WITH RAIN SATURDAY

MORNING. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT PATTERN ALTHOUGH

IT HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER EACH RUN FOR THE PAST 36 HOURS...EVEN

THE NEWEST 06Z RUN IS SLOWER. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE WITH THE 00Z RUN

COMPARED TO THE MONDAY IS THAT THE GFS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A DOUBLE

BARREL LOW SETTING UP...WITH A LOW JUST OFF THE GULF COAST FRIDAY

NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS GONE WITH THE 06Z RUN. THIS WOULD TEND

TO SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM...WHICH MAY CAUSE THE MODEL TO TREND CLOSER

TO THE EURO OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS. SPEAKING OF THE EURO...THE 00Z

RUN AS WELL AS THE 12Z AND YESTERDAYS 00Z...HAVE BEEN INDICATING

THIS DOUBLE BARREL LOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH 12 HOURS SLOWER...AS THE

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS REMAIN UN-PHASED UNTIL THE STREAMS

REACH THE EAST COAST. AS HPC MENTIONED THIS MORNING THE EURO SEEMS

TO BE TAKING THE SCENIC ROUTE TO THE EAST COAST...WHILE THE GFS IS

ON AN EXPRESS TRACK. WHILE I DID NOT LIKE THIS SLOWER MODEL LAST

NIGHT...WITH NOW 36 HOURS OF CONSISTENCY...ALONG WITH SIGNS OF THE

GFS TRENDING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION...DECIDED LAST MINUTE TO HAVE THE

FORECAST START TRENDING TOWARD THE EURO AS WELL..BUT NOT AS SLOW.

WITH THE 06Z GFS RUN I MAY NOT HAVE SLOWED IT ENOUGH.

FOR NOW I HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET DOWN BY 6 HOURS AND GOING WITH MORE

OF A BLEND OF THE GFS AND EURO IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION. WENT

AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL THUNDERSTORM WORDING AS WE WOULD BE NORTH OF

THE MAIN LOW. WE ARE JUST NOT GOING TO GET THE RETURN FLOW NEEDED AT

THIS TIME WITH EITHER SCENARIO. WITH THIS BLENDING...WENT AHEAD AND

KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IF THE EURO

IS RIGHT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND ALONG WITH

STRONG CAA MOVING IN...HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE CONFINED TO THE FAR

SOUTH WHERE PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE

MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING.

RIGHT NOW HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/SATURDAY

MORNING...BUT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TIMING REMAINS AN

ISSUE. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW AND

STRENGTH. EURO IS HINTING AT A DEEPENING LOW AS IT PULLS AWAY. THIS

COULD CAUSE THE COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED THUS

RESULTING IN A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AT LEAST

FOR THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO

THROW SNOW INTO THE FORECAST ON CHRISTMAS BUT IT WILL BE INTERESTING

OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLE

SCENARIOS. NO MATTER WHAT PRECIPITATION TYPES OCCUR...IT WILL GET

COLD ONCE AGAIN AND AT LEAST FEEL LIKE AN ARCTIC CHRISTMAS IN THE

SOUTH. STAY TUNED FOR ANY CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Good read out of NWS-Bham AFD. They seem to be coming around. I would copy & paste but am at work. Can someone else handle this?

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rosie

rosie

Posted
Posted

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 32.

Christmas Day: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 35.

At least it in mentioned in the forecast!

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

Backing into a corner. Come tomorrow if the solution is on the table, he should change his mind.

FWIW-----Just another forecaster's thoughts here. Watched JB's big dog and he is just not buying the euro (It's known for dragging southern systems) it's to slow with it, He said it's possible BUT not likely. thus He is still showing OV MA NE snowstorm.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 32.

Christmas Day: A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 35.

At least it in mentioned in the forecast!

lol you have to love ffc. Their discussion is the worst of all the local offices and so is their forecast reasoning.

That said, I'm a little surprised to see some of the nws offices so bullish this early. The wording from gsp was particularly strong considering this is 4 to 5 days away. It's not something you see very often from them. We usually complain about them not being bullish enough but in this case I wonder if they are a little too bullish, especially for the upstate/ne ga. I know it's tempting with only the gfs saying no at this point but still..it's a long ways away still. Now watch me jinx us by saying as much :arrowhead:

FFC on the other hand is simply riding the gfs like a 2 dollar hooker as usual which is pure laziness and also not very sound. Nothing surprising from them.

You would think FFC would get tired of seeing gsp blow them out of the water all the time and making them look like amateurs on a near daily basis though.

Christmas Day...Mostly cloudy. Snow likely...mainly in the afternoon. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Near steady temperatures in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Wow. Just....wow.

lol like I said, that's awfully bullish for so far out from our friends at gsp.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

KCAE:

Friday Night: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Christmas Day: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

I feel for them though. Even though they are leaving the discussion dark and not even mentioning the other models other than GFS, I think I understand where they're coming from this far South on Christmas, lol.

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