Christmas Storm II

[Cold Rain]

Ok, since we've got a growing consensus of a SE Christmas snowstorm with today's 12Z models, and since the other thread is 40 pages, I'm launching Part II. Still guaranteed. I'm feelin' it. To quote Cad_Wedge_NC: If the models still show this by Wednesday, I'm not going to be worth a dime at work.

Let's stay out of this one till the other one gets to 50 pages or so, though.

[SBUWX23]

Gonna throw a bone out there for those confused at the RAH disco.. The 12z ECM ensemble shows low south of NC with a cold high nosing/ridging down into the piedmont. Sorta see a CAD'ish look on the isobars.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

just checking in down here on ya'll folks. man what a turn of events, i was saying days ago i feel sorry for the se crew rain on christmas. now you look to be in the sweet spot, awesome stuff folks good luck

PS

mother nature please bury widreman ok thankies by by

[strongwxnc]

We all get snow now. Midlo has posted here.

Just love to see that pic of Stormtracker in your sig

Thanks man!!!

[rduwx]

just checking in down here on ya'll folks. man what a turn of events, i was saying days ago i feel sorry for the se crew rain on christmas. now you look to be in the sweet spot, awesome stuff folks good luck

PS

mother nature please bury widreman ok thankies by by

Thanks Midlo for the good wishes. Hopefully things turn out good for y'all also. I'm also hoping Widre gets burried, of course I have ulterior motives.

[beanskip]

Thanks for checking in -- we're pretty low maintenance down here -- won't find anybody complaining about "only" getting 4-6! Don't worry about us -- you just keep focusing on keeping DT from melting down the board (and, as we say in the south, "bless his heart")

just checking in down here on ya'll folks. man what a turn of events, i was saying days ago i feel sorry for the se crew rain on christmas. now you look to be in the sweet spot, awesome stuff folks good luck

PS

mother nature please bury widreman ok thankies by by

[Rob]

A 4-6" snow would def be a pleaser for most down here.

[Carvers Gap]

Going to repost in this thread as it's probably time to move on to a new thread. Morristown is "keepin' things level." Really good weather office, but interesting comments for sure. But really, who wants to bust on calling for a white Christmas?

000

FXUS64 KMRX 202041

AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

319 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...FRONT ENTERING THE AREA TONIGHT

AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL

KEEP A DRY FORECAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE

FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY

MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ONLY VERY

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO

WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING FOR

TUESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID BY THE AFTERNOON

HOURS. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT...STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE

NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT. STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...TUESDAY NIGHT STARTS

ON THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AND LIMITED

MOISTURE BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY FINISHES UP. SHORT UPPER RIDGE AND

SURFACE HIGH SETTLE IN FOR THURSDAY FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIP. SOME

DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES AS TO TIMING OF

FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. WENT WITH GFS WHICH HOLDS SYSTEM BACK

AND INTENSIFIES THIS SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. HAVE OPTED TO USE CHANCE WORDING IN

FRIDAY-EARLY SUNDAY WITH DECREASE FROM WEST ON SUNDAY AS LOWS

POTENTIALLY DEEPENS AND SLOWS. PLUS...THIS IS MONDAY AND FRIDAY,

SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY ARE A LONG WAY OFF. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE

FOR A BRIEFLY WHITE CHRISTMAS IN THE MORNING BEFORE IT WARMS UP

ENOUGH TO TURN TO RAIN. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

THE SURFACE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND BOMBS OUT IN THE GFS AND HEADS UP

THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME LINGER RH BEHIND IN

THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. POPS RAPIDLY DROP

OFF THEN.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. STARTED WITH GFS TEMPS

AND THEN ADJUSTED FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP. MOSTLY JUST MASSAGES TO

PREVIOUS TEMPS.

ONE THING TO WATCH AND WILL PASS THIS ON TO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS IS THE

CHANCE FOR INCREASING WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MID-LATE

WEEK.

&&

[Rob]

Huntsville, AL

[CaryWx]

Nothing like a nice new clean thread. Even smells better in here.

4'-6" of snow around here Christmas woud be considered a festivus miracle. Nobody east of the Mtns in NC should whine about that.

[keithinala]

Going to repost in this thread as it's probably time to move on to a new thread. Morristown is "keepin' things level." Really good weather office, but interesting comments for sure. But really, who wants to bust on calling for a white Christmas?

000

FXUS64 KMRX 202041

AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

319 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...FRONT ENTERING THE AREA TONIGHT

AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL

KEEP A DRY FORECAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE

FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY

MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ONLY VERY

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO

WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING FOR

TUESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID BY THE AFTERNOON

HOURS. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT...STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE

NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT. STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...TUESDAY NIGHT STARTS

ON THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AND LIMITED

MOISTURE BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY FINISHES UP. SHORT UPPER RIDGE AND

SURFACE HIGH SETTLE IN FOR THURSDAY FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIP. SOME

DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES AS TO TIMING OF

FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. WENT WITH GFS WHICH HOLDS SYSTEM BACK

AND INTENSIFIES THIS SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. HAVE OPTED TO USE CHANCE WORDING IN

FRIDAY-EARLY SUNDAY WITH DECREASE FROM WEST ON SUNDAY AS LOWS

POTENTIALLY DEEPENS AND SLOWS. PLUS...THIS IS MONDAY AND FRIDAY,

SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY ARE A LONG WAY OFF. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE

FOR A BRIEFLY WHITE CHRISTMAS IN THE MORNING BEFORE IT WARMS UP

ENOUGH TO TURN TO RAIN. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

THE SURFACE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND BOMBS OUT IN THE GFS AND HEADS UP

THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME LINGER RH BEHIND IN

THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. POPS RAPIDLY DROP

OFF THEN.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. STARTED WITH GFS TEMPS

AND THEN ADJUSTED FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP. MOSTLY JUST MASSAGES TO

PREVIOUS TEMPS.

ONE THING TO WATCH AND WILL PASS THIS ON TO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS IS THE

CHANCE FOR INCREASING WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MID-LATE

WEEK.

&&

Really good office is not a majority opinion at all. Their own forecast doesn't equal that lame disco. Who are they kidding about changing back to rain?

[strongwxnc]

Fixed it for you.

Nothing like a nice new clean thread. Even smells better in here.

4'-6" of snow around here Christmas woud be considered a festivus miracle. Nobody east of the Mtns in NC should would whine about that.

[CaryWx]

Heck Rob, that looks like an Apps runner almost.

[keithinala]

Huntsville, AL

That's from this morning. They'll have to move it south tomorrow.

[tnweathernut]

Huntsville, AL

Always good to put out a map that runs the low from southwest to northeast when most guidance is due east or slightly south of east. HAHAHA

[Rob]

That's from this morning. They'll have to move it south tomorrow.

I thought I remember you saying that. I looked at the time posted on it.

[Jet Stream Rider]

WOW, interesting setup that the models are depicting. I really like the 1036ish high in the upper midwest. Maybe it could be a bit more east but still its there and its cold. The 1012ish slp could be a deeper. Here's to hoping that it bombs out somewhere along the gom coast or just offshore GA/SC line. And then crawls up the coast.

[BIG FROSTY]

Just got home WOW ! Of course been reading all day on my Black berry.

FWIW-------JB not biting on the southern track as of noon ?

I like the GFS midday run in that it has its usual feedback max escaping, and without that, the storm will be even farther west. Again, it will be interesting to see if being fooled by this system (though it's nice to see it at least sideswiping New England) pays off with making me hone in on what would be a major disruptive storm from the central Plains to the mid- and northern Atlantic states. A distance of 150 miles north/south of a line of I-70, looks to be a good approximation for the accumulating snow now, with southern areas getting the rain and ice and northern areas less because of it being drier. But this should have a nice 6- to 12-inch swath from Denver to Dulles, and I think the axis turns will northeast for New England, getting the big I-95 cities. Again, that 12z run looks feedbackish to me with it jumping a max out, but I think overall we are looking at a big winter event just before and during Christmas, and with any luck at all for most it will put the star on top of the Christmas tree of the white Christmas idea.

[ams30721us]

Going to repost in this thread as it's probably time to move on to a new thread. Morristown is "keepin' things level." Really good weather office, but interesting comments for sure. But really, who wants to bust on calling for a white Christmas?

000

FXUS64 KMRX 202041

AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

319 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...FRONT ENTERING THE AREA TONIGHT

AND TUESDAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL

KEEP A DRY FORECAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE

FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY

MORNING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ONLY VERY

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO

WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING FOR

TUESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID BY THE AFTERNOON

HOURS. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING TONIGHT...STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE

NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT. STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...TUESDAY NIGHT STARTS

ON THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AND LIMITED

MOISTURE BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY FINISHES UP. SHORT UPPER RIDGE AND

SURFACE HIGH SETTLE IN FOR THURSDAY FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIP. SOME

DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES AS TO TIMING OF

FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. WENT WITH GFS WHICH HOLDS SYSTEM BACK

AND INTENSIFIES THIS SYSTEM WITH FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. HAVE OPTED TO USE CHANCE WORDING IN

FRIDAY-EARLY SUNDAY WITH DECREASE FROM WEST ON SUNDAY AS LOWS

POTENTIALLY DEEPENS AND SLOWS. PLUS...THIS IS MONDAY AND FRIDAY,

SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY ARE A LONG WAY OFF. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE

FOR A BRIEFLY WHITE CHRISTMAS IN THE MORNING BEFORE IT WARMS UP

ENOUGH TO TURN TO RAIN. WE`LL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.

THE SURFACE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND BOMBS OUT IN THE GFS AND HEADS UP

THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME LINGER RH BEHIND IN

THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. POPS RAPIDLY DROP

OFF THEN.

TEMPS WERE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. STARTED WITH GFS TEMPS

AND THEN ADJUSTED FOR CLOUDS AND PRECIP. MOSTLY JUST MASSAGES TO

PREVIOUS TEMPS.

ONE THING TO WATCH AND WILL PASS THIS ON TO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS IS THE

CHANCE FOR INCREASING WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MID-LATE

WEEK.

&&

Not a good AFD at all.....Snow to Rain Saturday???? What shows that solution? I understand not wanting to go for a White Christmas and all but lets not just make up anything.

[CaryWx]

I always find those over simplified maps a bit entertaining. Really shows the public nothing. Flightaware tracking for the letter 'L'---Sesame Street like almost.

[Rob]

I always find those over simplified maps a bit entertaining. Really shows the public nothing. Flightaware tracking for the letter 'L'---Sesame Street like almost.

haha yup

[Shawn]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

315 PM EST MON DEC 20 2010

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

THE DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE INTO FRIDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE

FORECAST AREA AROUND CHRISTMAS. THERE WERE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH

THE ECMWF SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK.

USED THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES. EXPECT

DRYING BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

lol, I give up.

[keithinala]

I thought I remember you saying that. I looked at the time posted on it.

Wow, could have sworn they had that out this morning. Makes even less sense if they updated it then.

[HKY18]

good disco from gsp

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY

INTERESTING OVER THE MID-SOUTH FOR CHRISTMAS. ALL OF THE MEDIUM

RANGE MODELS BRING A STRONG SHORT WAVE TO THE CA COAST LATE WED. THE

WAVE THEN TRACKS ESE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...GRADUALLY BEING

PUSHED SOUTH BY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NERN CONUS.

THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE CUT-OFF WITH THE SHORT WAVE THAN THE

OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS. BEING SLOWER...IT ALSO PHASES THE SRN

STREAM WAVE WITH MORE NRN STREAM ENERGY WHICH DROPS INTO THE LOWER

MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A STRONGER SFC LOW THAT

CROSSES SOUTH OF THE FA ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SHIELD OF PCPN...MUCH

OF WHICH WOULD FALL AS SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY. WHAT/S INTERESTING IS

THAT THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN NEARLY IDENTICAL IN

THIS REGARD.

THE GFS/S SHORT WAVE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MORE OPEN...AND THE NRN

STREAM ENERGY TENDS TO FLATTEN THE WAVE RATHER THAN AMPLIFY IT. IT/S

ALSO THE WARMER SOLUTION. HOWEVER...IT STILL GENERATES SNOW OVER THE

MTNS AND A MIX OUT INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS. THE CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE

IN THE MIDDLE...THOUGH IT TOO WOULD IMPLY MORE OF A SNOW THREAT

ACROSS A GOOD BIT OF THE FA.

THIS EVENT IS STILL A LONG WAYS OUT. THE WAVE THAT GENERATES THE

PCPN WON/T EVEN BE ON THE WEST COAST UNTIL MID-WEEK. IT/S SIMPLY NOT

POSSIBLE TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER DETAILS OF THE

FORECAST YET. THE DEVELOPING MODEL CONSENSUS IN A MORE SLY SOLUTION

CERTAINLY IMPLIES GREATER CHANCES OF WINTER WX OVER PARTS OF THE

FA...BUT IT WILL STILL BE A WHILE UNTIL WE HAVE A HANDLE ON PCPN

TYPE AND AMOUNTS.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ACCUMULATING NW

FLOW SNOW IS A GOOD BET SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT OVER THE NC

MTNS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THE

SAT-MON PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion --

[RevDodd]

I always find those over simplified maps a bit entertaining. Really shows the public nothing. Flightaware tracking for the letter 'L'---Sesame Street like almost.

Where do you want me to put this? Over the Apps? Off of Wilmington?

[griteater]

lol, I give up.

If all models were showing 12 inches of snow in Columbia, they wouldn't mention it until the day before.

[Hugo]

ILM only hints

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRI WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES EAST. WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY SFC LOW/COLD FRONT LATE SAT. WORTH NOTING THAT THE 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN PASS THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT AND NEVER BRING THE WARM FRONT THROUGH. BOTH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND THE ALTERNATE SOLUTION RESULT IN PRECIP DEVELOPING SAT MORNING AND LASTING INTO SAT NIGHT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WOULD BE THE NATURE OF THE PRECIP...STRATIFORM VS CONVECTIVE. NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS STARTS TO BUILD IN SUN WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVING SUN NIGHT OR MON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion --

[buckeyefan1]

lol, I give up.

I gave up on CAE quite awhile ago.....lol

My daughter is headed here from Spartanburg for Christmas...I will lol if it's snowing at her house while she's here under 33 and rain I hope someone in the SE gets a good snow for Christmas

[Shawn]

If all models were showing 12 inches of snow in Columbia, they wouldn't mention it until the day before.

They put snow in our forecast for the last storm like super far in advance when it was obvious it wasn't going to happen. I don't get KCAE sometimes. I really don't.

[eyewall]

First call: RDU - 4 inches SOP - Cold Rain .