strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS is rolling and is out to 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 First call: RDU - 24 inches SOP - 2 Cold Rain drops, followed by 24 hrs of heavy snow. . Fixed that for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Gonna throw a bone out there for those confused at the RAH disco.. The 12z ECM ensemble shows low south of NC with a cold high nosing/ridging down into the piedmont. Sorta see a CAD'ish look on the isobars. That doesn't look cold at all. The 540 line is a gazillion miles to the north. What's the scoop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That doesn't look cold at all. The 540 line is a gazillion miles to the north. What's the scoop? it's an ensemble mean, don't get worked up over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That doesn't look cold at all. The 540 line is a gazillion miles to the north. What's the scoop? Those are heights, not thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I don't think the 18z GFS is going to come around to the Euro -- probably not until Wednesday .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 But seriously, some of these local NWS discussions are a bit bland for a reason. I don't think any of us(if in their shoes) would be throwing the "white Christmas" wording around until say Wednesday AM at the earliest. Man, it's one thing to bust on here...it's quite another to bust in front of the whole community. HPC does see the threat in their afternoon discussion. It would, however, be nice to know what the local professionals are thinking - even if it is just an option. Morristown has been pretty good here in NE TN this year for the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That doesn't look cold at all. The 540 line is a gazillion miles to the north. What's the scoop? The scoop is those are heights and not thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Those are heights, not thicknesses. Wasn't NCSU simply pointing out the CAD potential with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 But seriously, some of these local NWS discussions are a bit bland for a reason. I don't think any of us(if in their shoes) would be throwing the "white Christmas" wording around until say Wednesday AM at the earliest. Man, it's one thing to bust on here...it's quite another to bust in front of the whole community. HPC does see the threat in their afternoon discussion. It would, however, be nice to know what the local professionals are thinking - even if it is just an option. Morristown has been pretty good here in NE TN this year for the record. People will remember a Christmas bust for years and years then they will ask why tax money is going to people that are making bad predictions even if they are right 80% of the time. Nothing wrong with being conservative this far out, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah, y'all know a lot better than me, but those ensemble means seem pretty worthless, especially when there is a big spread between the different members. it's an ensemble mean, don't get worked up over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 at 48 hour, coming ashore LAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wasn't NCSU simply pointing out the CAD potential with it? Yes he was and he is right based on that isobar signature (which will be more coarse on a global model as it is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 KGSP had a great AFD....imo People will remember a Christmas bust for years and years then they will ask why tax money is going to people that are making bad predictions even if they are right 80% of the time. Nothing wrong with being conservative this far out, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Actually a little faster than the 12z run. at 48 hour, coming ashore LAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 KGSP had a great AFD....imo That they did. Simply laying the facts out on the table with the science. That's why they're so good usually. I remember last year the nailed the December storm for us in CLT when everyone else was saying a big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It doesn't look as robust on the 18z gfs (as opposed to the 12z), but again it is the gfs AND an off-hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah, y'all know a lot better than me, but those ensemble means seem pretty worthless, especially when there is a big spread between the different members. thats why I don't really use them unless all Op. Models are close to one another, In this case it may actually be useful, but usually (not always) the op. model leads the way. It may be good to compare the GFS ens. against another members ensembles. I forecast more on the pattern and whats happened in the past, indicies and what I think the operational models are hinting out. For us, since we're such a microclimate, makes it hard, and even less useful for ensembles. But for a broad region, speaking for a large area of real estate such as the East Coast in general, it would be more useful. Certainly pay no attention to details like the Zero line placement in ensembles. Just broad brushes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 A little more moisture over Tx at 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 You mean the 12Z run. This is the 18Z run..... It doesn't look as robust on the 18z gfs, but again it is the gfs AND an off-hour run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Busting a 'White Christmas' call? Ugh!....Somebody please think of the children. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 People will remember a Christmas bust for years and years then they will ask why tax money is going to people that are making bad predictions even if they are right 80% of the time. Nothing wrong with being conservative this far out, that's for sure. They'll also wonder where their tax money is going when they have travel plans and don't get plenty of heads up too. The discussion was lame. Putting possibiilites in there is different from putting it in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 People will remember a Christmas bust for years and years then they will ask why tax money is going to people that are making bad predictions even if they are right 80% of the time. Nothing wrong with being conservative this far out, that's for sure. Come on, they just need to do their job. Right 80% of the time because 80% of the time nothing is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If all models were showing 12 inches of snow in Columbia, they wouldn't mention it until the day before. Actually I don't think they would mention it until 6" was already on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 its already looking strung out again at 72 hours. If I recall, the 12z was doing this by now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Come on, they just need to do their job. Right 80% of the time because 80% of the time nothing is happening. I'm just saying, it's Monday who is going to be put out because they didn't toot the horn about possibilities 5 days away? I don't get this calling them idiots because they are not being bullish about a storm that may or may not happen that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Those are heights, not thicknesses. Thank you UNCCmetgrad. I now have something to study (height vs. thickness.) Though hopeless here (ILM), I always root for the rest of y'all get snow. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wasn't NCSU simply pointing out the CAD potential with it? Yes I believe that was his original intention. I would like to see the high further east, but this is still a better setup than in previous events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 its already looking strung out again at 72 hours. If I recall, the 12z was doing this by now too. Yep basically taking the exact same track as the 12z...let the battle begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 @ 93 18z looks just a hair north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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