FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the GFS doesn't look realistic with the way the 5H trough gets sheared in the southern Rockies only to become neutral tilt again in the Plains. But this run isn't backing down from that. Its also pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If someone is baseing travel plans off that which is 5 days out and in the SE. No one fault but the travelers. Weather changes very fast. That traveler needs to check some more. I thought they did a good job for the time period. I have bashed KGSP before, but around the area they are the best. IMO.. Wow, I've seen them ignore things over and over until it's upon them. That discussion lacked badly though. Don't know how anyone could say that was good. And when you have to decide to leave a day early, etc..that IS what they are being paid to do, partially. Giving a heads up about possibilities that some models show is not the same as putting it in the official forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z fizzles and is faster (take it back maybe not faster). Throw her out boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm just saying, it's Monday who is going to be put out because they didn't toot the horn about possibilities 5 days away? I don't get this calling them idiots because they are not being bullish about a storm that may or may not happen that far out. OK but explain to me RALs reason for calling for rain? Does anyone who acknowledges that a storm may occur think it will be in the form of rain in the western Piedmont? Friday Night: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Christmas Day: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Should I worry the DGEX shows an inland low in NC? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06126.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow, I've seen them ignore things over and over until it's upon them. That discussion lacked badly though. Don't know how anyone could say that was good. And when you have to decide to leave a day early, etc..that IS what they are being paid to do, partially. Giving a heads up about possibilities that some models show is not the same as putting it in the official forecast. did you read GSP's afd or are you talking about morristown because gsp did highlight the chances so if your talking about gsp then your wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 OK but explain to me RALs reason for calling for rain? Does anyone who acknowledges that a storm may occur think it will be in the form of rain in the western Piedmont? Friday Night: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Christmas Day: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 50%. GSP has that same forecast. Although they had a good AFD on the snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 OK but explain to me RALs reason for calling for rain? Does anyone who acknowledges that a storm may occur think it will be in the form of rain in the western Piedmont? Friday Night: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Christmas Day: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sticking with the GFS cause it causes less concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the GFS is keeping this pretty far to the north. Nothing like GGEM or Euro or the NAM I don't think. War it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the GFS doesn't look realistic with the way the 5H trough gets sheared in the southern Rockies only to become neutral tilt again in the Plains. But this run isn't backing down from that. Its also pretty far north. For some reason JB is riding the GFS train ? He thinks the snow will have a nice strip 6-12 inches from denver to Dulles ? So He's on the north train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z looks like garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 did you read GSP's afd or are you talking about morristown because gsp did highlight the chances so if your talking about gsp then your wrong. Just talking about MRX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yes be very worried Carywx. Be afraid of DTs DJN rule. If the DGEX, JMA, and NOGAPs are all together take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Just talking about MRX. 10-4 just wanted to be clear haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 For some reason JB is riding the GFS train ? He thinks the snow will have a nice strip 6-12 inches from denver to Dulles ? So He's on the north train Didn't he pretty much blow the last two storms? Yes be very worried Carywx. Be afraid of DTs DJN rule. If the DGEX, JMA, and NOGAPs are all together take it to the bank. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FWIW, the 18z NOGAPS is much further south and colder than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 lolz 18z GFS says, "screw you SE I'm going to the MA." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 OK but explain to me RALs reason for calling for rain? Does anyone who acknowledges that a storm may occur think it will be in the form of rain in the western Piedmont? Friday Night: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Christmas Day: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Not long ago RDU was forecasting a high of 50F for 12/25. You've got a nice trend going if you can keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z looks like garbage. yep. No snow for anyone south of the VA border really. Just a frontal passage and morning showers for the Southeast on Christmas . At 120, the surface low is on the NC coast. We really have to have that good separation and southerly track to pull this off, like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think most of us snow-lovers would want the EURO, GGEM, and NAM hitting us good, while the GFS misses us. At this stage as opposed to vice-versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 JB's is pretty good at calling patterns/trends, but not so good at forecasting system movement/progression I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FWIW, the 18z NOGAPS is much further south and colder than the 12z run. I dont even see a storm? Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Leave it to the 18z GFS to bring us all down off our 24 hour high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 OK but explain to me RALs reason for calling for rain? Does anyone who acknowledges that a storm may occur think it will be in the form of rain in the western Piedmont? Friday Night: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Christmas Day: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 50%. I am absolutely concerned about having enough cold air. We MUST have the southerly track of the CMC/EURO/UKMet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 yep. No snow for anyone south of the VA border really. Just a frontal passage and morning showers for the Southeast on Christmas . At 120, the surface low is on the NC coast. We really have to have that good separation and southerly track to pull this off, like the Euro. Where does the GFS have it phasing?...or does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the GFS is keeping this pretty far to the north. Nothing like GGEM or Euro or the NAM I don't think. War it is. We're in uncharted territory here. The GFS north? There's a first. Usually it's south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 For some reason JB is riding the GFS train ? He thinks the snow will have a nice strip 6-12 inches from denver to Dulles ? So He's on the north train Funny how since he usually blasts that model. I guess now that it gives a better chance of a snowstorm from D.C. to New England, he sings a different tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 lolz 18z GFS says, "screw you SE I'm going to the MA." And that is what usually happens... Very difficult for both regions to cash in on the same storm, sure it possible, but not likely. One of us are going to get screwed. I would much rather have the ECMWF, GGEM, UKMET, and JMA in our court atm, compared to only the GFS. Consensus says the op GFS is an outlier until proven otherwise, and no the DGEX is not proof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Didn't he pretty much blow the last two storms? Yea that's what scares me, He due ! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Tonights 00z of the Euro will be pretty important IMHO...even though I have a feeling it will go *poof* just to have it reappear on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.