Christmas Storm II

[NCwxMAN]

Christmas snow map. Yeah I know, it doesn't even need to be said.

HM must be going with the GFS cause thats what the GFS has been showing a bit north (or right over the Carolinas) but Im not with him on that

[dsaur]

Yeah I noticed that too. It seems it doesn't matter whether it's sports or weather, new england and the mid atlantic will always be the center of attention. It really is frustrating.

Wait until the Falcons get finished up. Might be different this year.

Chris, this system as modeled by some products, at some times, would seem to have a pretty a good shot of being the block for the next one, closer to New Years Eve. The 18z puts it into the favored position, for a bit, then suddenly it shoots off the map as the next system is beginning to head towards Fla. Climo favors later in the month in Ga. What do you think the the chances are that the gfs is onto something, and the next system is the one for us?

I'm having a heck of a time getting up for a Christmas storm when my little weenie heart was crushed over and over as poor, pitiful, snow deprived tyke Tony

[Weather Czar]

I would take 1-2. My mom is terminally I'll with ovarian cancer and she has never seen a white Christmas here in nega ( Athens ). I'm not picky.

Sorry to hear about your mom. that must be heartbreaking. I will be praying her and your family.

[superjames1992]

HM must be going with the GFS cause thats what the GFS has been showing a bit north (or right over the Carolinas) but Im not with him on that

It's Accuweather. All winter storms pummel I-95. And it does not snow south of the NC/VA border.

[packfan98]

While we have a little time before the next model run I was wondering if someone can tell me the difference between the GFS operational model vs. it's ensemble members. What makes the operational model the one that is most widely used instead of the other 12 or so members? I was glad to see that the ensemble mean is holding steady.

[Weather Czar]

HM must be going with the GFS cause thats what the GFS has been showing a bit north (or right over the Carolinas) but Im not with him on that

Is HM even a met anymore? This looks more like some weenie wishcasting to me.

[Weather Czar]

Post #68...Almost brought me to tears.

LOL.. Should be called the 18z wishcasting thread. "good trends from the 18z runs"

[eyewall]

It's Accuweather. All winter storms pummel I-95. And it does not snow south of the NC/VA border.

I believe this is posted above every met's computer there. It is right there with "ask yourself is this good for the company?"

[Rankin5150]

Sorry to hear about your mom. that must be heartbreaking. I will be praying her and your family.

Me too!! Many, MANY prayers going out. I will most def be rooting for the NE GA area to gain a white Christmas. So sorry for Farley and Family.

[ncjoaquin]

I would take 1-2. My mom is terminally I'll with ovarian cancer and she has never seen a white Christmas here in nega ( Athens ). I'm not picky.

I would sacrifice my White Christmas for your mom if that were possible. My sister also has cancer.

I hope you(and your mom) get a White Christmas.

[HKY_WX]

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-charlotte/winter-weather-possible-for-christmas

Thoughts on this system so far.

[Lookout]

Wait until the Falcons get finished up. Might be different this year.

Chris, this system as modeled by some products, at some times, would seem to have a pretty a good shot of being the block for the next one, closer to New Years Eve. The 18z puts it into the favored position, for a bit, then suddenly it shoots off the map as the next system is beginning to head towards Fla. Climo favors later in the month in Ga. What do you think the the chances are that the gfs is onto something, and the next system is the one for us?

I'm having a heck of a time getting up for a Christmas storm when my little weenie heart was crushed over and over as poor, pitiful, snow deprived tyke Tony

Honestly, I've been pretty busy and haven't had a lot of time to study what's being modeled. But I really don't look that far out into the future as my focus is always on the short and medium range. I leave the long range stuff to those who know about it far better than I do.

Again I haven't had a lot of time to focus on this upcoming system but my general feelings are that some parts of north Ga are likely to get some snow. The question is will it be just the mountains or down to atlanta/athens. I know it's cliche and aggravating but it's Too soon to say right now imo. The models have not been great this year, thanks in part to the highly anomalous blocking patterns we have seen..as robert noted. Knowing this makes me really hesitant to believe in any model solution at this point. However, it would appear the majority of models are far enough south that some areas outside the mountains will experience something.

I think if the majority of the models hang on to a further south solution over the next 24 hours, then I think its time to ring the winter weather alert bells for north ga. I want to see some consistency before buying what some of the models are selling right now.

[kanc2001]

I want to be on Cape Cod right now:

http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no

nice!! bay effect

[Wow]

Bob DeBardelaben for me

hasn't be been off the air for 20 years now?

[Lookout]

Hey I see you live in High Point same here although mine says Greensboro I live around hwy 68 so good to see a close friend on here, and yea Accu, along with (TWC wont show much for ya unless you live in a city as big or bigger than ATL the HECK with TWC and ACCU you aint that great either, with that said I do look a them to get ideas along with the models so kinda sounds counter intuitive.

Guys I know it's tempting and easy to get off track, I've been guilty of it myself, but let's try to keep this off topic stuff out of the thread. The main reason for that is if we don't cut back on the off topic chatter, you end up with a long thread where people have to search to find posts relative to the topic of the thread. We need to keep this thread focused only on this christmas system and leave the off topic chatter to the december thread.

We are now at the point where we have so many users visiting and posting in this thread that it's now a necessity to delete this type of stuff so the quality of the thread remains high. So just letting you know that off topic stuff in this thread will be deleted. Repeat offenders will also be given timeouts. We, myself included, are going to be pretty strict on this so please take my advice.

Now back to regular scheduled programming

[CaryWx]

RAH leaves my area in hole without a HWO, yet to our SW , NW and NE they have posted them for their CWAs. Really makes no sense for places like the Triad not to have one.

[Cold Rain]

While we have a little time before the next model run I was wondering if someone can tell me the difference between the GFS operational model vs. it's ensemble members. What makes the operational model the one that is most widely used instead of the other 12 or so members? I was glad to see that the ensemble mean is holding steady.

Since you're a fellow Wolfpack longsufferer, I'll take a shot at this: The operational run uses initial conditions as observed by various measuring devices (radiosondes, satellite, etc.). The ensemble runs are derived by artificially manipulating those initial conditions slightly. Change the initial condition, the output of course changes, especially the further downstream (out in time) you go. Small tweaks that make little difference in the end results of all the various runs should lend more confidence to the operational solution. However, small changes that result in wildly different runs should throw up at least a few red flags that the operational forecast, while potentially accurate, should be viewed as a little less certain.

If I misstated anything here, someone please correct me.

[UpStateCAD]

Since you're a fellow Wolfpack longsufferer, I'll take a shot at this: The operational run uses initial conditions as observed by various measuring devices (radiosondes, satellite, etc.). The ensemble runs are derived by artificially manipulating those initial conditions slightly. Change the initial condition, the output of course changes, especially the further downstream (out in time) you go. Small tweaks that make little difference in the end results of all the various runs should lend more confidence to the operational solution. However, small changes that result in wildly different runs should throw up at least a few red flags that the operational forecast, while potentially accurate, should be viewed as a little less certain.

If I misstated anything here, someone please correct me.

pretty good.

[POWERSTROKE]

I would sacrifice my White Christmas for your mom if that were possible. My sister also has cancer.

I hope you(and your mom) get a White Christmas.

my wife had bone cancer when she was 16. She had surgery and alot of chemo. Cancer free since 1991. I know what you guys are going through.

[NCHurricane]

hasn't be been off the air for 20 years now?

Bob DeBardelaben. Now there's a name from the past. I had forgotten about him. 1989 is when he retired. I remember watching him a lot.

[DopplerWx]

NAM will be rolling soon. Hopefully itll be the first of the many good runs tonight.

[DopplerWx]

NAM is rolling.

[Cold Rain]

It's awfully quiet. Everyone must be getting their rest before the 0Zs come out.

[DopplerWx]

Out to 12hrs

[Cold Rain]

NAM is rolling.

Look at that big 570 block up there in northern Canada. Amazing.

[Cold Rain]

Out to 12hrs

We got this one, Southern.

[Cold Rain]

Dig baby dig!

[WeatherNC]

A couple things before we fire up the old hardware for the night guys. We would be in a much more precarious situation right now if we had the GFS on our side and not the EC. The two links below show H5 verification for the 0z Euro (from 168hrs) and Global (from 144hrs), till 24 hrs out. Note how far some of the height fields are off till about 72 hours when both models seem to hone in. The EC appears to have handled the Pac better, while the GFS the vortex in Canada. Of note, the GFS was way off in the Pac, and the Euro not nearly as bad with thevortex to our north.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/ecmwf0012loop500.html

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/gfs0012loop500.html

The UKMET is the model to watch imo. Not only does it have a H5 NH 5 day verification score that is second to the ECMWF, it can be better than the GFS in handling phasing between the southern and northern branches in fast flow patterns (per NCEP model bias). If the GFS shows phasing outside of 84 hrs, check the UKMET for continuity. The UKMET has also been the most consitent model, in showing a southern slider for the last 2 days. When I see the ECMWF and UKMET in almost lock step at 96 hrs, while the GFS is different, that is a red flag that the GFS is an outlier. The two graphics below show the 12z Euro and 12z Ukie at 96 and 120hrs, almost carbon copies of one another.

We still have another 48hrs or so for potential bust. Once we can get a good look at the NAM inside of 48, and the global models inside of 72, and there is agreement, that is the time to start celebrating, knowing that we have made it through the dark regions and into the home stretch. I prefer a ens mean blend of the big 3 atm (ECMWF, GFS, GGEM), to smooth out extremes for a middle of the road solution. And for a lot of folks in the SE atm, the middle road looks good!

[Cold Rain]

A couple things before we fire up the old hardware for the night guys. We would be in a much more precarious situation right now if we had the GFS on our side and not the EC. The two links below show H5 verification for the 0z Euro (from 168hrs) and Global (from 144hrs), till 24 hrs out. Note how far some of the height fields are off till about 72 hours when both models seem to hone in. The EC appears to have handled the Pac better, while the GFS the vortex in Canada. Of note, the GFS was way off in the Pac, and the Euro not nearly as bad with thevortex to our north.

The UKMET is the model to watch imo. Not only does it have a H5 NH 5 day verification score that is second to the ECMWF, it can be better than the GFS in handling phasing between the southern and northern branches in fast flow patterns (per NCEP model bias). If the GFS shows phasing outside of 84 hrs, check the UKMET for continuity. The UKMET has also been the most consitent model, in showing a southern slider for the last 2 days. When I see the ECMWF and UKMET in almost lock step at 96 hrs, while the GFS is different, that is a red flag that the GFS is an outlier. The two graphics below show the 12z Euro and 12z Ukie at 96 and 120hrs, almost carbon copies of one another.

We still have another 48hrs or so for potential bust. Once we can get a good look at the NAM inside of 48, and the global models inside of 72, and there is agreement, that is the time to start celebrating, knowing that we have made it through the dark regions and into the home stretch. I prefer a ens mean blend of the big 3 atm (ECMWF, GFS, GGEM), to smooth out extremes for a middle of the road solution. And for a lot of folks in the SE atm, the middle road looks good!

Good post!

[FoothillsNC]

Nam is out to 24. Its several hundred miles offshore Cali, and is about to start to split. Very far south, but we'll see how far south it is when it comes inland.