Christmas Storm II

[MotoWeatherman]

So, does it go across Charlotte and exit off OBX same as the 18z GFS?

Yep. Looks very similar to me.

[NCSNOW]

How do you get from this

To a morphed /absorbed low that basically disappears into the northern stream over east TN 20 hours latter.

[Wow]

UKMET? Pretell John!

[tgarren]

I'm going to try and stay up.

what time does it come out for you?

[UNCCmetgrad]

Well GFS is a step in the right direction I think. Energy comes ashore in the west coast further south. The southern feature seems to hold together further east before being sheared by the northern stream. This run also seems slightly colder east of the mountains.

[Carvers Gap]

Someone is going to be really disappointed. I was watching the thread on the main board in regards to the 0z GFS - sounds like a Mid-Atlantic thread BTW. I like it here much better. They are watching the GFS w/ fingers crossed. We are waiting on the UKMET, Canadian, and Euro.

Edit: I guess my question is this, is there any other model in the same camp w/ the GFS. By following it, are you basically pulling for it to score a coup? Or, does it's set-up make more sense?

[Lookout]

Well the GFS keeps my hopes alive for flurries in far N GA on Christmas day.

Bah humbug lol. That's not much consilation considering it gives dc/the mid atlantic a bona fide white christmas. That would make me rather nauseated truth be told.

Not much to be excited about on tonight's gfs with the exception that it does make some upper level changes for a time which hopefully puts it on course to side with the euro/ggem maybe in future runs. I don't know though, tonight's euro/ggem are some pretty big runs from where I sit.

[Weather Czar]

Someone is going to be really disappointed. I was watching the thread on the main board in regards to the 0z GFS - sounds like a Mid-Atlantic thread BTW. I like it here much better. They are watching the GFS w/ fingers crossed. We are waiting on the UKMET, Canadian, and Euro.

The Ukmet at 72 is looks good. Did the GFS just crush the southern stream with the northern stream and have it take over?

[Carvers Gap]

The Ukmet at 72 is looks good. Did the GFS just crush the southern stream with the northern stream and have it take over?

Honestly, I'm probably not the person to ask on that. It looks like almost like a hybrid Miller B - much, much different solution than the other models. We'll see what the Euro says in a few hours. Someone can correct me on this, the northern stream almost absorbed the southern stream feature.

[eyewall]

As has been said still crap but better on the 0z GFS. On to the big one and that is the Euro!

[Rankin5150]

http://www.americanw...post__p__143467

Thank you sir! Missed that eh?

[NCSNOW]

Bah humbug lol. That's not much consilation considering it gives dc/the mid atlantic a bona fide white christmas. That would make me rather nauseated truth be told.

Not much to be excited about on tonight's gfs with the exception that it does make some upper level changes for a time which hopefully puts it on course to side with the euro/ggem maybe in future runs. I don't know though, tonight's euro/ggem are some pretty big runs from where I sit.

Even up here it would be a slap in the face, Downslope city = Dryslot for foothills/western piedmont.

[CaryWx]

Can't wait up for the Euro, but I don't think it loses the storm as someone said earlier. Looking for the same run, hopefully That would really have the NWS guys thinking about more substantial comments/forecasting tomorrow.

[BullCityWx]

Used to be if the Euro had something for 3 runs in a row, it was a near certainty.

[MotoWeatherman]

Bah humbug lol. That's not much consilation considering it gives dc/the mid atlantic a bona fide white christmas. That would make me rather nauseated truth be told.

Not much to be excited about on tonight's gfs with the exception that it does make some upper level changes for a time which hopefully puts it on course to side with the euro/ggem maybe in future runs. I don't know though, tonight's euro/ggem are some pretty big runs from where I sit.

LOL...I'm trying to temper my own expectations.

[WeatherNC]

Someone is going to be really disappointed. I was watching the thread on the main board in regards to the 0z GFS - sounds like a Mid-Atlantic thread BTW. I like it here much better. They are watching the GFS w/ fingers crossed. We are waiting on the UKMET, Canadian, and Euro.

Edit: I guess my question is this, is there any other model in the same camp w/ the GFS. By following it, are you basically pulling for it to score a coup? Or, does it's set-up make more sense?

Look at the differences at 500mb at 132hrs on the 12z run, compared to 120hrs this run (not the level on continuity one would like to see at this range)

Now look at the surface placement in Eastern NC at 126hrs on the 12z run, compared to 114hrs this run, almost identical

With that change at 500mb, I would expect the surface reflections to not be this similar, but they are. If the UK, EC, and GGEM have continuity with there previous runs, and are in continued reasonable agreement , this run is an egg imo as the graphics above already kind of show.

[POWERSTROKE]

Used to be if the Euro had something for 3 runs in a row, it was a near certainty.

That is true but nothing is certain lately. I was down your way last night looking at Christmas lights, hopefully euro will keeps its trend

[Solak]

FWIW, WRAL tonight is calling for rain on Sunday, possibly ending as flurries. Fishel is off, and Maze didn't go into any detail.

[beanskip]

Don't know if the RGEM has been posted yet, but looks like our disturbance is well south -- about over San Diego.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif

[MotoWeatherman]

Ones thing looks for sure is the we are going back into the freezer behind this system so any snow we do get should stick around. 0z GFS has me going below freezing by 5pm Saturday and not going back above freezing until Tuesday afternoon.

[BullCityWx]

That is true but nothing is certain lately. I was down your way last night looking at Christmas lights, hopefully euro will keeps its trend

I hope it keeps the trend too...hope the line wasnt too bad.

[POWERSTROKE]

Ones thing looks for sure is the we are going back into the freezer behind this system so any snow we do get should stick around. 0z GFS has me going below freezing by 5pm Saturday and not going back above freezing until Tuesday afternoon.

There are no signs of a major warm up. looks like normal temperatures to below for my area

[POWERSTROKE]

I hope it keeps the trend too...hope the line wasnt too bad.

Hadn't been there in 20 years and it 3 hours long, would have been nice if it was snowing while we were there. Beautiful scenery. After last week's models I am not banking on anything yet

[WeatherNC]

DT says this run is BS also, and that H5 graphic I posted above kind of shows why...

take a look at the CURRENT MASSIVE 500 Low in the nw atlantic

see it?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_000l.gif

96 hrs this is the 500 MB two massive 500 Lows over eastern and se Canada

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_096l.gif

YET according to the 0z GS this system is going to close off and BOmbs next RIGHT next to -- right next to in the synoptic large scale sense a 24 hrs later

at 120 hrs???

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_120l.gif

sorry I call BS

[BullCityWx]

I know alot of y'all dont like the cold without the snow but look at it this way....if we get this storm to come, we're primed for accumulations. Look at how quickly that snow stuck last Saturday even with temperatures significantly above freezing(relatively speaking). You cant underestimate how important that is to how much you'll end up with in a certain event.

[FoothillsNC]

probably what we're witnessing is the reverse of most years. The models aren't handling the extreme blocking too well even 48 to 72 hours out, so they're adjusting. Just like in the bulk of many other winters, they don't handle the southeast ridge, and they adjust each run with a further north and west track. I have a feeling the Euro is right in the ballpark, as is GGEM and Ukmet so far, with minor changes.

A track into southern Cal, then due east, maybe NE some toward Red River, then back east and southeast pretty good, before hooking up the east coast.

[Carvers Gap]

DT says this run is BS also, and that H5 graphic I posted above shows why...

They are getting in perspective over there as well. Who knows? Maybe this storm gets strung out and we get a crazy solution - or not. Are we in the window where the models seem to "lose" the storm and then regain it a few runs later?

[NCwxMAN]

I think the pro Mets on here would like to see some real time imagery here I am talking water vapor

[BullCityWx]

I know alot of y'all dont like the cold without the snow but look at it this way....if we get this storm to come, we're primed for accumulations. Look at how quickly that snow stuck last Saturday even with temperatures significantly above freezing(relatively speaking). You cant underestimate how important that is to how much you'll end up with in a certain event.

Just to expound on this, here's soil temps across the state(I just have NC, not familiar with any sc or ga sites with this data):

[Jon]

Kinda off topic but don't drill me (Sorry lookout), I want to be able to disco the Euro tonight so I have a question...If anyone has experience w/ Accuweather Pro (I signed up for a trial), is there an easy way of viewing the 00z ECMWF when it comes out hour by hour, or does it just update all of the hours once it is completed? It doesn't highlight any of the hours as far as I'm concerned as they're coming out like the "rapid update" NAM they have on there.