December Banter

[pcbjr]

2008-09 was very close to being a snow-less winter had it not of been for the March 2009 snowstorm. 2003-2007 wasn't that spectacular either. The only noteworthy event in between those periods of years was the January 29, 2005 ice storm, but fortunately we were spared any long term crippling effects from that, went from the mid to upper 20s near the tail end of the storm to the following day shooting up to the mid 40s! Oh yeah there was a little snow in February 2004, but that was about it. Nothing really to write home about during those winters.

 

 

 

True, there's nothing wrong with believing/being optimistic in what was being forecast by most mets. I was and still am (cautiously) optimistic myself. However, are you saying there was never a part of you that thought while you were buying into the idea that it felt like it was too good to be true? It's not impossible to have the kind of winter where it's cold from beginning to end overall, but it can be very challenging to produce a tall order like that.

 

Bottom line, in my previous post my point was I didn't see why it really even matters whether it's a cold, warm, mild, or seasonable winter. The predictions of a wall to wall cold winter could have happened and we still could get screwed with a snow-less winter. It's possible to have a pattern set up at any time during the winter and produce a winter storm for most of us regardless of what the overall temps have been throughout the winter.

 

As a side note, I don't envy any mets that publish these seasonal outlooks, every year you're always putting your neck out on the line whether it's right or a bust. It's a double edged sword of praise/criticism either way. I say kudos for being willing to research, put them together, and release them in the first place.

 

Oh, and Merry Christmas and a Happy (Snowy) New Year to you too!

 I was not editorializing; only observing.

 

Thought and think "chill pill" is in order.

 

Phil

[toxictwister00]

 I was not editorializing; only observing.

 

Thought and think "chill pill" is in order.

 

Phil

 

Uh...ok...    Wasn't aware what I was saying was me flipping out at you or anyone else. I apologize if you took offense to what I was saying.

[metalicwx366]

Uh...ok... Wasn't aware what I was saying was me flipping out at you or anyone else. I apologize if you took offense to what I was saying.

Uh... Go to sleep. It's well past your bedtime.

[metalicwx366]

Shame the cliff divers have dosed off.

First off, it's 12am. Second off, the models still look like trash. Third, the CMC is trash. Not sure what you're excited about.

[Jonathan]

First off, it's 12am. Second off, the models still look like trash. Third, the CMC is trash. Not sure what you're excited about.

LOLz!

[toxictwister00]

First off, it's 12am. Second off, the models still look like trash. Third, the CMC is trash. Not sure what you're excited about.

 

Sounds like it's definitely way past your bedtime.

[superjames1992]

First off, it's 12am. Second off, the models still look like trash. Third, the CMC is trash. Not sure what you're excited about.

 

[Shawn]

Shame the cliff divers have dosed off.

 

Not sure why that's not in banter, but cliff divers definitely have a sound reason to do so right now. Yes, it's early and still December, but models aren't acting too kindly for our cold weather.

 

I had my yearly melt down recently, so I've accepted the weather may not be good for the majority of January.

 

Lets hope the 00z Euro does something better at h5

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Not sure why that's not in banter, but cliff divers definitely have a sound reason to do so right now. Yes, it's early and still December, but models aren't acting too kindly for our cold weather.

I had my yearly melt down recently, so I've accepted the weather may not be good for the majority of January.

Dec and Jan aren't really good months for snow anyway in the south right ? February is our big snow month.

[Shawn]

First off, it's 12am. Second off, the models still look like trash. Third, the CMC is trash. Not sure what you're excited about.

For once, I 100% agree with you.

[HKY_WX]

For RDU, and I would guess for everyone else, the 19 year stretch from 1990 to 09 was awful. Had 5 climo or above and 14 awful winters.

I think that's why this winter could be so frustrating, if we skunk this year then all of a sudden that's a 3 of 4 years that would be terrible.

Well cheer up, the models are flip-flopping and we're only 4 days into winter. If this winter turns around, it could be 4 good winters out of 6.  

[superjames1992]

Dec and Jan aren't really good months for snow anyway in the south right ? February is our big snow month.

 

January is almost certainly your biggest month.

 

It's probably:

 

1. January

2. February

3. March

4. December

5. November (almost never snows)

6. April (almost never snows)

 

EDIT: Well, at Atlanta, it appears that March averages more than February in the last 30 years, probably largely due to March '93.  Of course, that's assuming Wikipedia's numbers are right...  In any case, January is snow month #1 and it isn't close.

 

That being said, in my experience the latter half of January is better for big snow events.  Of course, there's exceptions like January 2000.

[oconeexman]

Respectfully, I beg to differ.

If 10 or so very respected Mets had said in Oct/Nov - "All indications are for a mild December with little looking good going into 2105", board posters would'a said "OK" and been good with it. In such a situation, with a model pattern like we're seeing now, and with maybe something in late Jan or early Feb on the horizon to possibly celebrate, this place would be lit up with optimism.

Flip the coin to where we actually are - 10 or so very respective mets more or less progged general cold and snow, and posters sunk teeth into that. Hasn't happened. So - now there's a whole lot of cold turkey going on, and that is understandable.

Not to belittle anyone's early forecasts, but it is important and appropriate to realize why there is such heightened despair. We all got on the cold/snow train. Unfortunately, the engineer never got her rolling out of the yard and down the track (yet).

But Hey - it's Christmas, and New Year's is a week away. Good things can happen! Just look back over the past 12 months - hey - we've had some weather to watch and more to come ...

Best and again Merry Christmas!!!!

And a Happy (snowy) New Year!

Well said buddy! Think the realization that solar activity has more of an affect on our weather and can't be predicted is sinking in and it stinks!

[burgertime]

Man, we're really latching on to this solar theory. Weren't we in high solar activity last year? 

[burgertime]

What has me worried more than anything right now is how cold it is in Europe...that tends to not bode well for us. 

[max100]

that's pretty hard to believe. I can't imagine a city like Charlotte, which is close to the same latitude as Chattanooga, going 17 years without a snowstorm greater than 3 inches.

Latitude really has nothing to do with it.

[packbacker]

Man, we're really latching on to this solar theory. Weren't we in high solar activity last year?

Yep, and DJF and a +AO and. +NAO.

[max100]

Man, we're really latching on to this solar theory. Weren't we in high solar activity last year?

Why the HELL do people think Solar activity just affects the USA???

[Cold Rain]

Why the HELL do people think Solar activity just affects the USA???

Haha! That made me Lol Max!

[Jon]

Why the HELL do people think Solar activity just affects the USA???

Haha good point.

[GaWx]

Why the HELL do people think Solar activity just affects the USA???

Max ,

Excellent point. In addition, the supposed suddenness of the solar factor reeks of straw grasping. This is one reason I think JB and others now suddenly noting solar should be taken with an extra big grain right now. Where is the proof? It sounds like JB is just looking for an excuse that he may later note over and over IF his overall cold DJF goes down in flames. I have a feeling JB would forever refer to the miscalc of the sun as a "not my fault" kind of thing, which would really be lame. This would remind me of 2001-2, when JB kept going with the "It looked good in the upper air for cold but the sfc didn't cooperate" sort of thing. He would also be liable to say something like "at least it got cold again in Canada again...it just didn't reach as far down into the US as I expected". The lack of humility considering his overall inconsistent record is a negative about JB IMO.

Edited

[sparkync]

I agree, JB has to cover his butt

[franklin NCwx]

Why the HELL do people think Solar activity just affects the USA???

good post max!

[max100]

good post max!

Thank you, I guess some got a laugh out of it, or threw up in their mouth.

[frazdaddy]

Good morning all,

 

I went back and read the pattern thread for this week last year. It was deja vu all over again and last year turned out ok. While I agree that winter forecasts by all of our favorite prognosticaters have certainly raised expectations, I'm not ready to write this winter off. I mean what else do we have to do? 

[max100]

Good morning all,

 

I went back and read the pattern thread for this week last year. It was deja vu all over again and last year turned out ok. While I agree that winter forecasts by all of our favorite prognosticaters have certainly raised expectations, I'm not ready to write this winter off. I mean what else do we have to do?

Totally agree. I think its just the huge fluctuations of all the models, especially our beloved GFS. It shows single digits one run, then has 60 degrees on the next run, it's like a fish out of water, flipping and flopping.

[GaWx]

Good morning all,

I went back and read the pattern thread for this week last year. It was deja vu all over again and last year turned out ok. While I agree that winter forecasts by all of our favorite prognosticaters have certainly raised expectations, I'm not ready to write this winter off. I mean what else do we have to do?

I don't think many are considering writing all of the rest of winter off this early. What people are now considering writing off are the forecasts for overall quite cold DJF forecasts due to the math. It is still way too early IMO to consider dismissing the chance for a very cold, say, last half of winter.

[packbacker]

I don't think many are considering writing all of the rest of winter off this early. What people are now considering writing off are the forecasts for overall quite cold DJF forecasts due to the math. It is still way too early IMO to consider dismissing the chance for a very cold, say, last half of winter.

This is what you posted last year about this time with regards to the weeklies...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41787-winter-2013-14-pattern-discussion/page-48#entry2564035

Dec 19th, 2003: The operational and ensemble runs today were overall colder for the US with the coldest relative to normal north of us, leaving the SE close to normal. OTOH, the just released Euro weeklies (which is based off of 0Z) have a Bermuda high ridging into the SE US for all four weeks with warmer than normal temperatures. What to believe?

[LithiaWx]

I don't think many are considering writing all of the rest of winter off this early. What people are now considering writing off are the forecasts for overall quite cold DJF forecasts due to the math. It is still way too early IMO to consider dismissing the chance for a very cold, say, last half of winter.

Awesome insight, I completely agree.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Personally if im wanting a winter storm; I dont want real cold temps. 30-32 would be ideal. Otherwise youre talking about supression.