superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Sounds like the Canadian was still cold. So we still have that Eh. It went to hell in the LR. The good news is that it can't get any worse. Take a look around you! We're at the threshold of hell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1rYmzQ8C9Q "when your still waiting for the snow to fall, it doesn't really feel like Christmas at all" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Merry Christmas! Prepare for gl...disaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 There are almost no good signs anymore. Winter is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 How do you know this? Farmers Almanac or something? Really? The AO is going raging positive, the day 8-9 GEFS doesn't look very good. I am not saying winter cancel, just saying the wintery chances the next couple of weeks isn't going to happen. Until we get some solid blocking I don't think we will get snow. Last year we did have some blocking with a solid east coast trough. Compare to what the GEFS is trying sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 There are almost no good signs anymore. Winter is done. To not risk being accused of being too negative, if we can cool Canada down and at least get cold somewhere on this side of the hemisphere, we'll at least be closer to a good pattern. Right now, we're not even in the same universe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 There are almost no good signs anymore. Winter is done. The OH-V guys were looking at the AAM, high values is what we want for "nino" atmospheric conditions and low values are for nina. GEFS predicts solidly negative for the next 2 weeks. Also, the latest 3.4 ENSO reading is 0.5, falling off a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 To not risk being accused of being too negative, if we can cool Canada down and at least get cold somewhere on this side of the hemisphere, we'll at least be closer to a good pattern. Right now, we're not even in the same universe. LOL at the latest CFS...Nina FTL... The CFS is going to nail Dec temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Was last year a raging Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Was last year a raging Nina? No, it was neutral negative I think. We didn't see SE ridging or ridging in the SE, however you want to it, at any part last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Was last year a raging Nina? CFS temps remind me of 04/05. Jan 05 had ridging in AK, but heigher heights across the conus, similar to what the GEFS and EPS are spitting out for days 9+.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 No, it was neutral negative I think. We didn't see SE ridging or ridging in the SE, however you want to it, at any part last winter. Ok then what's all the garbage about atmospheric memory pertaining to Nina conditions then? The atmosphere needs to remember that big -EPO from last year, if it's going to remember anything at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Merry Pattern Change Day ! Oh...wait, nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 My forecast for the next 10 days is warm. Today will be the coolest. Oh well. I can wait another 15 days. I'm ready to see the sun again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Ok then what's all the garbage about atmospheric memory pertaining to Nina conditions then? The atmosphere needs to remember that big -EPO from last year, if it's going to remember anything at all. I don't ever remember last year battling higher heights in the SE, even JB this morning said the SE would be battling ridging in the SE or SE ridge, whatever you want to call it. We are going to need blocking to overcome that, I don't see it within the next 2 weeks. It does look like it could be snowy for the central US up though NE. We would be on the wrong side of SLP track. Let's hope end of Jan into Feb we get some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Why do people keep saying that? There was a SE Ridge last December. It was extremely warm last December. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/Dec13TDeptSERCC.png I'm in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Burger hooking up the PBP in Christmas Day. That's dedication right there. You da man, Burg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Burger hooking up the PBP in Christmas Day. That's dedication right there. You da man, Burg! agreed, good stuff Burg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Wife is at work. Read over 100 pages of a new book this morning so had to cleanse all the thinking with wx models. Gonna walk the dog next to make up time for the Euro. Personally I'm not to phased to jump to the negative territory. Seems like last year all the same debates were going on with everyone ready to call winter over. GFS didn't look horrible and PARA doesn't either. Like most winters we look for surprises and those tend to come when the pattern is just "so-so". Rarely are we ever locked into a storm or a perfect pattern 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Wife is at work. Read over 100 pages of a new book this morning so had to cleanse all the thinking with wx models. Gonna walk the dog next to make up time for the Euro. Personally I'm not to phased to jump to the negative territory. Seems like last year all the same debates were going on with everyone ready to call winter over. GFS didn't look horrible and PARA doesn't either. Like most winters we look for surprises and those tend to come when the pattern is just "so-so". Rarely are we ever locked into a storm or a perfect pattern 8 days out. Very true, didn't think the 12z GFS was bad at all and if we can get that energy to move a bit quicker we will be in business. Too many emotions swinging from run to run over the past few days and many getting upset over the long range. We just need to watch from run to run and see what happens. It could be the end of winter or just the beginning. So much speculation going on has everyone down in the dumps. If the GFS was showing a huge storm right now for NYD I would be a bit worried because we have seen so many times the models have a great storm at day 7 only to fizzle out and lose it by day 3 over the past few years. Not saying this will be the case, but some of our best snowstorms in the south have taken till around 5 days before they begin to show on the precip maps. Winter isn't over yet and won't be for another 2-3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 January is toast. Anyone gonna be doing any fishing in the next few weeks? At this rate, we'll have trees blooming and bass spawning by mid-January. Merry Christmas all! Hope everyone has a good one. Let's take the day off from the models and enjoy the spring weather outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Why do people keep saying that? There was a SE Ridge last December. It was extremely warm last December. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/Dec13TDeptSERCC.png I'm in the bullseye. At no point last year (Jan/Feb) was the cold consistently dumped in the west. We consistently had ridging in the west (warm west) which meant the mean trough was consistently in the east. We aint getting that for atleast the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Really? The AO is going raging positive, the day 8-9 GEFS doesn't look very good. I am not saying winter cancel, just saying the wintery chances the next couple of weeks isn't going to happen. Until we get some solid blocking I don't think we will get snow. Last year we did have some blocking with a solid east coast trough. Compare to what the GEFS is trying sell. Not sure how anyone can predict how Jan is gonna turn out even the first two weeks with the models the way they are. No set pattern is being seen yet IMO and the closer we get to New Years the more we will get an idea but certainly not 6 days out fromJan 1st. The AO keeps flipping solutions at least towards neutral unless you're literally looking at the GEFS only, even on the GEFS I think it's been neutral to negative a few runs close to the end of the first week of jan but I'm on my cell....but I know the CMC has been by itself but other runs of other models haven't all been raging +AO. Either way, there's no way anyone can look at the models and lock in even a bad pattern for a couple or a few weeks. If January is a bust then I'm seriously going to ignore every seasonal model ever next year and just wait for the models to roll Dec 1st. I think be biggest problem is not seeing a for sure snowy pattern for Jan this far out and it's really eating at people, but even the ensembles on the Euro were better last night, haven't looked at today's GEFS yet. Like burger said same exact talk was going on last year so I'm not jumping yet even for the first two weeks of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I'm going to go on record and say we will not get a SSW event this year with enough vigor to disrupt or split the stratospheric PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Not sure how anyone can predict how Jan is gonna turn out even the first two weeks with the models the way they are. No set pattern is being seen yet IMO and the closer we get to New Years the more we will get an idea but certainly not 6 days out from Jan 1st. The AO keeps flipping solutions at least towards neutral unless you're literally looking at the GEFS only, even on the GEFS I think it's been neutral to negative a few runs close to the end of the first week of jan but I'm on my cell....but I know the CMC has been by itself but other runs of other models haven't all been raging +AO. Either way, there's no way anyone can look at the models and lock in even a bad pattern for a couple or a few weeks. If January is a bust then I'm seriously going to ignore every seasonal model ever next year and just wait for the models to roll Dec 1st. I think be biggest problem is not seeing a for sure snowy pattern for Jan this far out and it's really eating at people, but even the ensembles on the Euro were better last night, haven't looked at today's GEFS yet. Like burger said same exact talk was going on last year so I'm not jumping yet even for the first two weeks of Jan. You and burger, the eternal optimists. I truly I hope I am wrong and you guys are right, but I don't think we see anything until atleast after the 20th of Jan. Like Brick said we didn't get squat last year until end of January. It's not like I am really going out on a limb here, it's not like the models are spitting out great blocking patterns the next 2 weeks, if they were, I would be more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I'm going to go on record and say we will not get a SSW event this year with enough vigor to disrupt or split the stratospheric PV.But SCE/SAI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I'm going to go on record and say we will not get a SSW event this year with enough vigor to disrupt or split the stratospheric PV. I think we will, probably into February and the results will be felt in March. Nothing better than a cold rain in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 But SCE/SAI! Hogwash on that garbage from this day forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 You and burger, the eternal optimists. I truly I hope I am wrong and you guys are right, but I don't think we see anything until atleast after the 20th of Jan. Like Brick said we didn't get squat last year until end of January. It's not like I am really going out on a limb here, it's not like the models are spitting out great blocking patterns the next 2 weeks, if they were, I would be more optimistic.Yeah I understand. Literally if the Euro EPS wasn't that much colder over Hudson bay in one run for the anomaly and fixed the ridge up last night I'd be a tad bit less optimistic but I still can't fold until we really see the hand we are given and unfortunately that won't be for a few days (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 SE Weenie Meter: "shrunken" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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