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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

12z Euro Ensemble...

 

Post Turkey Day weekend, Euro Ens is locked in on a warming trend for the entire U.S.  Same ideas as yesterday - big Bering Strait ridge and trough extending from Alaska to off the west coast...weak ridging extending across the U.S.  Warmest 850mb anomalies are centered from the Rockies to the Great Lakes.  SE is only slightly above normal, but more importantly, it's a pattern that is no good for wintry precip.

 

First week of Dec will be great for golf, raking leaves and putting up your outside Xmas decorations... :sizzle:

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packbacker

packbacker

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Euro ENS members did tick up when checking cities from RDU/GSO/LGA/PHL/BOS, looks to be two camps, some members with the first lead energy and some members with the 2nd piece.  Not sure what I want to happen to maxmize this...either the lead wave is quicker and let the 2nd piece to develop, which gives more of a chance for colder air to get in or to have one big phase and hope/pray.

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packbacker

packbacker

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I guess we better pray we see some snow around thanksgiving , or we may have to wait til January , if the Euro is right!

 

LOL, my guess/hope is the first 10 days of Dec is warm/seasonal and we start to see blocking (-AO/-NAO) develop mid month and then we are off to the races.   I don't think we start seeing our chances come till early/mid Jan into Feb.  All of the nino/analogs had multiple events (83, 87, 03, 04, 10), and I think we see that again this winter. 

 

I will be concerned if by mid-Dec we don't see blocking develop, then I think it's panic time by end of Dec with no blocking.   All that wintery nino's typically have -AO avg for Dec and all the warm nino's typically have a +AO in Dec.

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burgertime

burgertime

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Been stuck in meetings all freaking day so just got to see  the models. One thing really sticks out to me. Either way at the end of next week it looks to modify to an above average temp pattern. This gives me a little faith that the Euro may be on to something. Usually we get our good storms out of systems riding on the edges of pattern changes. As usually with any type of phasing storm a butterfly flutter can change things....but overall I really like the look of it and have a feeling the system gets bigger as we move forward. The million dollar question will be how much cool air can come in with it. We really need that baby to blow up off the coast and phase better to pull down cool air with it. 

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

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LOL, my guess/hope is the first 10 days of Dec is warm/seasonal and we start to see blocking (-AO/-NAO) develop mid month and then we are off to the races.   I don't think we start seeing our chances come till early/mid Jan into Feb.  All of the nino/analogs had multiple events (83, 87, 03, 04, 10), and I think we see that again this winter. 

 

I will be concerned if by mid-Dec we don't see blocking develop, then I think it's panic time by end of Dec with no blocking.   All that wintery nino's typically have -AO avg for Dec and all the warm nino's typically have a +AO in Dec.

I'm not worried at all. Even if we get to January 1st with no sign of winter storms I'll be ok. We literally have all of December, January, February and half of March to get a big storm. I'll be happy with just one nice smack down.

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calculus1

calculus1

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LOL, my guess/hope is the first 10 days of Dec is warm/seasonal and we start to see blocking (-AO/-NAO) develop mid month and then we are off to the races.   I don't think we start seeing our chances come till early/mid Jan into Feb.  All of the nino/analogs had multiple events (83, 87, 03, 04, 10), and I think we see that again this winter. 

 

I will be concerned if by mid-Dec we don't see blocking develop, then I think it's panic time by end of Dec with no blocking.   All that wintery nino's typically have -AO avg for Dec and all the warm nino's typically have a +AO in Dec.

 

What good will panicking do, pack?  There's no sense in doing that.  It's not like panicking will cause the atmosphere to unleash a snowstorm upon us.  :P

 

Just continue to enjoy the below normal temperatures for this November, and if/when the snow arrives this winter, then go out and relish it.  (In the meantime, just feast your eyes upon the Buffalo glory in the other subforum.)

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GaWx

GaWx

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LOL, my guess/hope is the first 10 days of Dec is warm/seasonal and we start to see blocking (-AO/-NAO) develop mid month and then we are off to the races.   I don't think we start seeing our chances come till early/mid Jan into Feb.  All of the nino/analogs had multiple events (83, 87, 03, 04, 10), and I think we see that again this winter. 

 

I will be concerned if by mid-Dec we don't see blocking develop, then I think it's panic time by end of Dec with no blocking.   All that wintery nino's typically have -AO avg for Dec and all the warm nino's typically have a +AO in Dec.

 

GSO and RDU didn't even see their first measurable event til 12/24/39 during that historic SE weakish El Nino winter with the big snow not til January.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

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I'm not worried at all. Even if we get to January 1st with no sign of winter storms I'll be ok. We literally have all of December, January, February and half of March to get a big storm. I'll be happy with just one nice smack down.

 

Yep, the first accumulating snowfall here last year was on January 21st.  GSO ended up with 16" by mid-March (close to 200% of normal).

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packbacker

packbacker

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GSO and RDU didn't even see their first measurable event til 12/24/39 during that historic SE weakish El Nino winter with the big snow not til January.

I am definitely not saying we should expect winter storm in Dec. I simply want to see a -AO/-NAO develop in Dec. There isn't many wintery nino's with a +AO in Dec. That's all I hope Dec brings.

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pcbjr

pcbjr

Posted
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Hot damn, straight model porn for eastern NC on the 18z GFS.  PGV is crushed.

 

EDIT: Well, surface temperatures look highly problematic, as has been the case in past runs.  That's a lot of QPF, though.

SJ-

 

For some reason I'm not loading a bunch of websites right now. Got I-T looking into it. Something I think to do with cache or cookies, but I'll let the paid guy figure it out. Can you do a favor and post a pic ?

 

Thanks!

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

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SJ-

 

For some reason I'm not loading a bunch of websites right now. Got I-T looking into it. Something I think to do with cache or cookies, but I'll let the paid guy figure it out. Can you do a favor and post a pic ?

 

Thanks!

Temps in the mid 40's and dropping to mid 30's(RDU) before the moisture is gone according to bufkit  ;) 

 

post-279-0-62133900-1416613759_thumb.png

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SeVa

SeVa

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That snow depth map is a thing of beauty! The 18z GFS algorithms must have been tweaked by some weenie at NWS/NOAA. But as was mentioned earlier all of us in the east are straight torching in the 40s at the surface. Anyways, even if this doesn't come to fruition, it's pretty nice seeing 6" of modeled snow.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

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That snow depth map is a thing of beauty! The 18z GFS algorithms must have been tweaked by some weenie at NWS/NOAA. But as was mentioned earlier all of us in the east are straight torching in the 40s at the surface. Anyways, even if this doesn't come to fruition, it's pretty nice seeing 6" of modeled snow.

This time of year I'm not greedy; I'll take snow showers / flurries and call it a win.

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GaWx

GaWx

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"D’Aleo, now chief forecaster at WeatherBell Analytics, was one of the few meteorologists to accurately predict a colder-than-normal November.

He expects several major East Coast snowstorms and “widespread below-zero temperatures” that will plunge much of the nation into a deep freeze for as long as six weeks this winter.

 The worst of the frigid winter weather will likely hit right around Christmas and last until the first week of February,"

 

 http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/weather-channel-co-founder-predicting-snowier-bitterly-colder#.VG-9L7mpbCE.facebook

 

 This is all consistent with 1939-40 fwiw.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
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So, I'm kind of confused. For the longest time, everyone seemed rather gungho about the winter, and now, throughout the regional subforums, everyone seems on edge about the possibility of a non-winter?

 

It looks like Dec may start out in an unfavorable and warmer than normal pattern.  That may be causing concern for some, but otherwise nothing has changed, and it's all systems go, IMO.

 

 

A few excerpts from today's blog update from Cohen (the thoughts on the blog seem to be consistent with what I've read today from HM on twitter @antmasiello) - http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

"Confidence in an average negative AO state for the upcoming winter remains high given the robust troposphere stratosphere coupling observed and predicted. The atmospheric response to snow cover so far is mostly consistent with high snow cover which favors increased energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere followed by a weakening of the polar vortex."

 

"Longer-term the strongest signal continues to be from the high October Eurasian snow cover.  High snow cover favors a weaker polar vortex mid-winter.  Wave driving has been observed to be strong and is predicted to remain strong into early December.  Therefore we would rate the likelihood of a significant to major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) to be above average.  Typically the SSW occurs in January but the cycle seems to be accelerated relative to a composite of past events and could happen as early as December.  Following the SSW we would expect a prolonged period where the AO is predominantly in the negative phase."

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metwannabe

metwannabe

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"D’Aleo, now chief forecaster at WeatherBell Analytics, was one of the few meteorologists to accurately predict a colder-than-normal November.

He expects several major East Coast snowstorms and “widespread below-zero temperatures” that will plunge much of the nation into a deep freeze for as long as six weeks this winter.

The worst of the frigid winter weather will likely hit right around Christmas and last until the first week of February,"

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/weather-channel-co-founder-predicting-snowier-bitterly-colder#.VG-9L7mpbCE.facebook

This is all consistent with 1939-40 fwiw.

Fourth snowiest winter on record for MBY ....KBMX

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snowlover91

snowlover91

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That snow depth map is a thing of beauty! The 18z GFS algorithms must have been tweaked by some weenie at NWS/NOAA. But as was mentioned earlier all of us in the east are straight torching in the 40s at the surface. Anyways, even if this doesn't come to fruition, it's pretty nice seeing 6" of modeled snow.

It actually is much colder at the surface along and east of I-95 where the heavier precip is, soundings indicate 32-34 at the surface which would be cold enough for snow easily and temps rapidly dropping due to the low strengthening and precipitation cooling the atmosphere. 

 

Here is a sounding for 2pm from the 18z GFS for the Greenville NC area.

 
GFS_3_2014112118_F120_35.5000N_77.5000W.
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