Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread I

[LithiaWx]

12z Parallel GFS at hour 240 says what warmup?

 

The Para GFS has been atrocious.  I could be mistaken but I believe this is the upgraded GFS that was supposed to come out in November that has been pushed back to January due to all of the bugs in it.  Again, this is my understanding and it could be wrong.  It also does show the warmup over the next 7 days, pictured is the anticipated cold shot that we should see around Thanksgiving plus or minus a day.  As has been stated what happens on, around, and after Thanksgiving is pretty unclear.

[GaWx]

This is a wonderful post, thank you so much for all the effort that went into it.

 

That first sentence alone, quoted above, should help explain to many people why Atlanta tends to do poorly during what seem like mild winter events to outsiders.  When you consider that most elected officials only hold office for 2-4 years, AND you consider that even in the DOT and elsewhere job turnover is not uncommon, AND you realize that we only see a multiple major about once every 14 years, and at most one or two minors per year... it should not surprise anyone that the folks "in charge" do not have the experience to handle winter weather events.  It also helps point out how unrealistic it is to purchase extensive amounts of plows and other equipment for something that might not even occur within the machine's lifetime.  Basically it isn't like Atlanta as a community gets a lot of practice at it.   The average Atlantan will only see 4-5 of these in a lifetime, as you define "major".

 

I'm so tempted to point anyone who cries "you people are so inept, why are you having problems with a few inches of snow?" to your post forevermore.

 

Cherokee,

 Thanks and you're welcome! Great points. The harsh criticism from some of how ATL handled the 2-3" that paralyzed it last Jan. was overdone imo. It was the first time there was that much snow during the middle of a work day and with it being that cold since snowjam of 1982! They just don't have the equipment to handle these rare situations. Due to the infrequency of similar events (only once every few decades for several inches with that kind of timing and with it initially that cold), they should keep the budget for plows, etc, reasonably low imo. OTOH, there should have been more people not even going to work and school in the first place. I told my sis to keep her kids at home and she did. The NWS already had warned the public. It was largely ignored. Admittedly, it did come in more quickly than most had expected (just like snowjam 1982).

[LithiaWx]

Cherokee,

 Thanks and you're welcome! Great points. The harsh criticism from some of how ATL handled the 2-3" that paralyzed it last Jan. was overdone imo. It was the first time there was that much snow during the middle of a work day and with it being that cold since snowjam of 1982! They just don't have the equipment to handle these rare situations. Due to the infrequency of similar events, they should keep the budget for plows, etc, reasonably low imo. OTOH, there should have been more peope not even going to work and school in the first place. I told my sis to keep her kids at home and she did. The NWS already had warned the public. It was largely ignored. Admittedly, it did come in more quickly than most had expected (just like snowjam 1982).

 

This may not be the place for this but here we go anyways.  The problem I observed in Jan 2014 was the lack of workplaces taking seriously what the NWS had warned.  I do believe the warnings could have been handled much better than they were.  It was a bit confusing to the general public.  I do believe now with the criteria changes we won't see something like that happen again.  I do think the NWS followed the criteria in place for Warnings/Advisories/Watches during that storm.  I don't blame them there and the fact they have now seemingly fixed that issue I place even less blame on the NWS. 

 

Many people (myself included) saw the disaster setting up but had no choice but to go to work.  I remember sending Justin (Weatherkid) a text that morning saying everyone is going about their daily business like nothing is wrong.  This is going to be an epic disaster later today.  Most people can't just take a day off when they feel like it with no warning to their workplace.  I felt compelled to go to work like many others did.  Hopefully next time workplaces allow their employees to leave earlier or not come in without fear of disciplinary action for taking undocumented time off.

 

I do think ATL learned a hard lesson that hopefully won't be repeated for another 30 years but I can pretty much bet on complacency at some point in the future as this memory fades.

[snowlover91]

The Para GFS has been atrocious.  I could be mistaken but I believe this is the upgraded GFS that was supposed to come out in November that has been pushed back to January due to all of the bugs in it.  Again, this is my understanding and it could be wrong.  It also does show the warmup over the next 7 days, pictured is the anticipated cold shot that we should see around Thanksgiving plus or minus a day.  As has been stated what happens on, around, and after Thanksgiving is pretty unclear.

If you look at our average high this time of year and the 10 day forecast, only two out of 10 days are at or above normal. That's not a sustained warmup. That's called the pattern reloading, which is why models show another cold blast after thanksgiving and going into the end of November. The "warmup" is merely the pattern reloading for more cold, it's not sustained. That's my point, the pattern is reloading and end of November or early December looks cold. Euro of last night showed a similar pattern as did the regular GFS so the para GFS is not alone.

[burgertime]

I'm surprised JB is singing a warm tune for the first half of Dec. There is simply no way to be definitive about anything that far out. It's been exceptionally choppy lately on LR ensembles over the last few days. It's a very uncertain period down the line. The "big relaxation" keeps moving out in time every day. It brings back memories of last winter when the repetition seemed unstoppable. LR stable warm patterns on the models never materialized. Not one single time. And there were plenty.

My wag right now is an extended period of riding a see-saw but having our source region remain below normal means that any cold shot has the ability to be pretty cold. Even if it only lasts for a few days. Same with the warm ups in advance of fronts. Short lived. I think we can all live with that.

 

Bob thanks for stopping in. I totally agree with you on the bolded and the rest of your post. Right now it really feels a lot like last winter looking at anything past about 140 hours on the models. Even now the Euro (which seems to be stuck at 117) looks to bring in a shot of cold air across the east when just a few days ago it had a warm look to it for the same period. The cold looks transient but like last year if it's just shot after shot that is nothing to complain about for late Nov. early Dec.  I think Robert has the right of it in not looking too much into the LR and looking more at the overall synoptic pattern. 

[LithiaWx]

If you look at our average high this time of year and the 10 day forecast, only two out of 10 days are at or above normal. That's not a sustained warmup. That's called the pattern reloading, which is why models show another cold blast after thanksgiving and going into the end of November. The "warmup" is merely the pattern reloading for more cold, it's not sustained. That's my point, the pattern is reloading and end of November or early December looks cold. Euro of last night showed a similar pattern as did the regular GFS so the para GFS is not alone.

 

I hear reloading pattern as a term thrown around a lot and honestly I'm not sure what that is even supposed to mean.  It sounds like we are parsing words at this point.

 

It sounds like we are saying the same thing, right?  Transient cold shots that are in and out? With no real dominant cold or warm regime on the horizon.

[Cold Rain]

Marietta, what is your contention?

 

1) That the first half of December will be warm?

2) That it will be variable?

3) That those thinking it will be cold will probably be wrong?

4) That those thinking it will be warm will probably be wrong?

5) Other?

[LithiaWx]

Marietta, what is your contention?

 

1) That the first half of December will be warm?

2) That it will be variable?

3) That those thinking it will be cold will probably be wrong?

4) That those thinking it will be warm will probably be wrong?

5) Other?

 

The first half of December could go any direction at this point.  I'm leaning towards seasonal with cold transient shots in and out, from what I gather there is no cold or warm dominating.  Anyone taking a definitive stance on December is going out on a big limb. nrgjeff had a great post in the TN thread this morning about this topic :

 

 

Strato warming vs MJO signal smack-down: Movie at 11. Well, maybe that is at the end of the 11-15 day period. Last week models picked up on thunderstorms increasing across the Indian Ocean. In theory that MJO signal builds a ridge over Northeast Asia, trough over Alaska, and mild over the Lower 48. At the same time a stratospheric warming (not sudden but sig) is creeping up toward the Pole from Eurasia. That is a cold signal. Who wins? History shows 50/50; sometimes the blocking blocks the MJO induced Kelvin wave. Other times the Kelvin wave makes it across along with milder temps.

 

First I want to see how the weekend plays out. Look for a nice warm-up and then some strong thunderstorms. In the wake of that system two scenarios could hint at Thanksgiving and the following week. If another trough is entrenched, GFS cold bias would verify. If the weekend system is a pattern changer, and the following one digs into the West like the Euro shows, then winter may take a break for a bit.

 

This guy nails it every time he posts imo.

[snowlover91]

I hear reloading pattern as a term thrown around a lot and honestly I'm not sure what that is even supposed to mean.  It sounds like we are parsing words at this point.

Essentially the idea is that no pattern holds exactly the same over a period of time, ridges breakdown and move, low pressure systems strengthen/weaken, the PV moves, etc. Most longer term patterns, whether they be cold or warm, have temporary 1-3 day transitional shots of warm or cold air. For example the pattern we are in, the next 10 days are colder than average except the 1-3 day period this week where the pattern features allow a brief warmup before the next sustained cold moves in. We are in a sustained colder than average pattern, whether that translates to snow remains to be seen. The point I'm making is, temps for the most part will be below normal the next 10 days and there are no indications that the cold pattern we are in is changing.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

I saw this posted today and thought it could be interesting. 6 hours form now 4 local Carolina Mets (Jamie Arnold of WBMF, Jason Boyer of WLOS, Matt Engelbrecht of WITN, and Tim Buckley of WFMY) will be discussing/debating weather models and which ones are most accurate, in a live stream on YouTube.

 

Sorry if this is considered 'off topic'. I just found it interesting.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efatB2knmp0

[Marion_NC_WX]

I saw this posted today and thought it could be interesting. 6 hours form now 4 local Carolina Mets (Jamie Arnold of WBMF, Jason Boyer of WLOS, Matt Engelbrecht of WITN, and Tim Buckley of WFMY) will be discussing/debating weather models and which ones are most accurate, in a live stream on YouTube.

 

Sorry if this is considered 'off topic'. I just found it interesting.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efatB2knmp0

 

 

 

Hey...thanks for posting a link to that...

I am involved with Carolina Weather Group, as you guys probably remember back in Sept when we did a special on the 25th anniverary of Hurricane Hugo...anyways, our hosts definitely would like for you guys to interact on the show tonight...through the Q and A section once the show begins. The timing of this episode is perfect...

 

[Cold Rain]

The first half of December could go any direction at this point.  I'm leaning towards seasonal with cold transient shots in and out, from what I gather there is no cold or warm dominating.  Anyone taking a definitive stance on December is going out on a big limb. nrgjeff had a great post in the TN thread this morning about this topic :

 

 

 

This guy nails it every time he posts imo.

 

Ok, that's what I was understanding your position to be.  I think seasonal and transient cold/mild is a reasonable way to go until we have an established pattern in place.  Now, that said, I think the bias is going to be toward cool...not necessarily -5 departures or anything so dramatic, but the state of the atmosphere has made the average tilt in favor of cool lately.  It may come in the form of a variable pattern where the cold shots outweigh the warm ones in either duration, intensity, or both.  Or a colder pattern could set in, though, I feel like that is less likely in the near/medium term.

 

Until we get an established blocking episode, it will probably be difficult to sustain a solid cold pattern.  Conversely, a sustained warm pattern seems difficult to develop as well.  And snow is another story altogether.

 

So, I guess my stance on December is that it averages colder than normal, with the coldest period being the second half of the much.  It doesn't take a lot of guts to write the second half of that sentence though.

[LithiaWx]

Ok, that's what I was understanding your position to be.  I think seasonal and transient cold/mild is a reasonable way to go until we have an established pattern in place.  Now, that said, I think the bias is going to be toward cool...not necessarily -5 departures or anything so dramatic, but the state of the atmosphere has made the average tilt in favor of cool lately.  It may come in the form of a variable pattern where the cold shots outweigh the warm ones in either duration, intensity, or both.  Or a colder pattern could set in, though, I feel like that is less likely in the near/medium term.

 

Until we get an established blocking episode, it will probably be difficult to sustain a solid cold pattern.  Conversely, a sustained warm pattern seems difficult to develop as well.  And snow is another story altogether.

 

So, I guess my stance on December is that it averages colder than normal, with the coldest period being the second half of the much.  It doesn't take a lot of guts to write the second half of that sentence though.

This is a very reasonable outlook on things imo.

[Eric]

 ATL got a 6" snow on 12/29/1880  (that's 300% of climo in one storm). It appears to have been a dry, powdery snow. ATl got down to +1 F on 12/30, only one wamer than the all time Dec. low of 0. The winter as a whole was chilly but not brutal.

Found this article in the December 30, 1880 issue of The New York Times.  Snow fell far south into Georgia.  Looks like Greensboro was the big winner with that snowstorm.

 

[Cold Rain]

This is a very reasonable outlook on things imo.

 

Thanks.  However, fair warning...I will be earnestly and tediously looking for signs of cold and snow!

[mackerel_sky]

The next two weeks could be above normal, below normal or average.

[Cold Rain]

Thanks.  However, fair warning...I will be earnestly and tediously looking for signs of cold and snow!

 

Certainly didn't find any in this monkey butt image:

 

[strongwxnc]

Hey...thanks for posting a link to that...

I am involved with Carolina Weather Group, as you guys probably remember back in Sept when we did a special on the 25th anniverary of Hurricane Hugo...anyways, our hosts definitely would like for you guys to interact on the show tonight...through the Q and A section once the show begins. The timing of this episode is perfect...

Looking forward to it Dan!

[GaWx]

Found this article in the December 30, 1880 issue of The New York Times.  Snow fell far south into Georgia.  Looks like Greensboro was the big winner with that snowstorm.

 

December 1880.jpg

 

Eric,

 Wow, thanks for posting this! Your posts of articles addressing historic SE wx events are always enjoyable. Based on looking at multiple sources, I have 1880-1 as high end neutral positive to low end weak Nino, a range which has often resulted in great SE winters like 1884-5 and 1935-6. These snow reports are consistent with the 6" on 12/29/1880 at ATL. Based on liquid equiv. of only 0.28", ATL apparently got a very dry, powdery snow with ~20:1 ratios! Looking back at 135 years of history, this appears to have been one of the, if not THE, highest ratio snowfall there of any significance.

 

 The 12/29/1880-1/1/1981 period would have made this forum go bonkers. There were back to back Miller A's. I looked at the daily wx maps and it showed the first Miller A that "formed in the Gulf south of N.O." late on 12/28 per the text and the maps. It took the classic route across the far N FL peninsula as is shown on the later maps. It was the typical weak Miller A Gulf low that has often in the past given the SE heavy snow. While in the Gulf, it was down to only ~1010 mb per the maps. It then got stronger as it turned the corner and headed up the coast offshore. This gave the snow your article references as well as the 6" at ATL.

 The second Miller A was a further south ~1015 mb low that crossed central FL, i.e, a bit too far south for ATL and nearby areas to get too much precip. However, it did give some rare ZR as well as very cold rain to places like SAV in the 12/31-1/1 timeframe and light snow to Pensacola and Mobile among other SE cities. Wilmington, NC also got snow. The maps suggest this second low was accompanied by very strong CAD 12/31-1/1 as the low crossed C FL.

[griteater]

Last 2 runs of Euro ensemble in 11-15 day timeframe going into early Dec definitely evolve into a Nina type look with ridging into the Bering Strait, troughing just off the west coast, and +NAO.  Not a cold look, but we'll have to see if it's right.

[packbacker]

Last 2 runs of Euro ensemble in 11-15 day timeframe going into early Dec definitely evolve into a Nina type look with ridging into the Bering Strait, troughing just off the west coast, and +NAO. Not a cold look, but we'll have to see if it's right.

Hit the deck, your about to get pelted by tomatoes! Just kidding.....it looks like crud, but I am sure it will evolve into a great wintery pattern, we hope.

[griteater]

Hit the deck, your about to get pelted by tomatoes! Just kidding.....it looks like crud, but I am sure it will evolve into a great wintery pattern, we hope.

 

That's fine, I like tomatoes

 

On the flip side, the strat stuff continues to look good for later in Dec per HM's tweets - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/535195882082541569

[JoshM]

Found this article in the December 30, 1880 issue of The New York Times.  Snow fell far south into Georgia.  Looks like Greensboro was the big winner with that snowstorm.

 

December 1880.jpg

 

Hmmm... that's odd, 8 in Gastonia, NC and 14 inches in Dallas, NC?! Weird/narrow cutoff, wish there was a precise precip amount map for that storm.

[packbacker]

That's fine, I like tomatoes

 

On the flip side, the strat stuff continues to look good for later in Dec per HM's tweets - https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/535195882082541569

 

I also like that 3.4 went back over 1 again...

[franklin NCwx]

Winter un-cancel?

[GaWx]

Speaking of 1940, I believe it flurried in Raleigh on May 2, 1940.

 

Superjames,

 I couldn't find any flurries at Raleigh on 5/2/1940 per this:

 

 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-5EA2274C-1464-49B6-A32C-1D1FF3F8154F.pdf

 

However, Raleigh did get a lot of snow in 1939-40: 13.7"! The last snow was on 3/24/40.

 

1939-40, a leading ENSO analog for 2014-5 based on it also being a late starter weakish but warming Nino for the winter with a warm Oct. and cold Nov., produced total SN/IP that was quite heavy (all way above normal %wise) through much of the well inland SE, making this one of the great SE winters.

 

1939-40 SN/IP totals:

Greensboro: 19.8"

Knoxville 19.7"

Asheville 19.1"

Raleigh  13.7"

Chattanooga: 13.4"

Charlotte 11.6"

Nashville 11.2"

Birmingham: 10.0"

Greenville 9.9"

Memphis 8.5"

Atlanta 8.3" plus a major ZR at least at KATL; most other CAD areas got at least some ZR, too

Vicksburg 8.0"

Meridian 5.7"

Macon 3.2"

[pcbjr]

Last 2 runs of Euro ensemble in 11-15 day timeframe going into early Dec definitely evolve into a Nina type look with ridging into the Bering Strait, troughing just off the west coast, and +NAO.  Not a cold look, but we'll have to see if it's right.

 

 

In a polite way  -- Damn ...

[metwannabe]

18z GFS LR is anything but warm....... A good pattern??? Not really but it's for sure not a warm pattern. Upgrade has a nice cold blast late next week..... If the energy on the backside could dig a little more....... Never mind

[Cold Rain]

We should change the title of the thread to "Winter 2014-2015: At Least It's Not the Worst Pattern Possible".

[packbacker]

Winter un-cancel?

 

Just from a pure Nino perspective we do better with moderate Nino's, so if we stay

above 1 then it's going to be a roof collapsing winter.    

 

But, no models show 3.4 staying above 1 so....