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Winter 14/15 Banter & Complaint Thread

Whitelakeroy

By Whitelakeroy,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

What are your thoughts on this?

6 out of the last 16 years are in the top 11 warmest for Detroit, and 8 fall in the top 20. The last time a year fell in the top 20 coldest years was 1980. There may be more extremes leading to colder winters but on the average we are falling on the warm side of things yearly. This isn't just a winter or summer discussion though, it is a year to year, decade to decade, century to century discussion.

 

Note: this is just Detroit, I know it is the same all over the country and world.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted

  • Today Cloudy, with a high near 36. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.

Tonight Cloudy, with a low around 29. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. West wind around 5 mph.

Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Friday A 30 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 40.

Friday Night A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 40.

Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41.

 

=

 

 

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

The coldest year on record globally was 1909. Michigan's winter that year was 1.0F above normal.

 

Michigan's temp when averaged over the last 100 years is very flat, with a slight uptick over the last 30 years.

 

Facts are facts, the earth is warmer today than 1909, but temps are only slightly warmer on the backyard thermometer.

 

This warm spell is just bad luck.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

6 out of the last 16 years are in the top 11 warmest for Detroit, and 8 fall in the top 20. The last time a year fell in the top 20 coldest years was 1980. There may be more extremes leading to colder winters but on the average we are falling on the warm side of things yearly. This isn't just a winter or summer discussion though, it is a year to year, decade to decade, century to century discussion.

 

Note: this is just Detroit, I know it is the same all over the country and world.

 

Thanks for your input. Do you think there is any correlation between relatively warmer winters and more snowfall? Do the coldest winters on average provide the most snowfall? Would like to know those statistics. As we here in Buffalo tend to get more snowfall in below average winters in which Lake Erie freezes sooner than normal. Was surprised by this statistic.

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

 

  • Today Cloudy, with a high near 36. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
  • Tonight Cloudy, with a low around 29. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
  • Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
  • Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. West wind around 5 mph.
  • Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon.
  • Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.
  • Friday A 30 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 40.
  • Friday Night A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.
  • Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 40.
  • Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.
  • Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 40.
  • Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.
  • Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41.

 

=

 

 

attachicon.gifderail.jpg

 

 

If we can eventually get what's below at some point this winter:

 

 

 

Today Snow with Widespread Blowing Snow after 9 AM. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High around 31. Winds ENE at 20-30 MPH, with gusts as high as 44 MPH. New Snow Accumulations of 8-12" expected.

 

Tonight Snow with Widespread Blowing Snow before 11 PM, then Widespread Blowing Snow with a chance of Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 26. Winds NNE at 17-24 MPH, with gusts as high as 33 MPH. New snow accumulations of 4-6" expected.

 

The boring crap right now will be worth it...

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Just to add to the discussion, December and February have warmed in Toronto and Ottawa over the past century. January not so much.

Whats interesting here is that the warmest Januarys and Julys are both from the 1930s....and by a decent margin. (those are the two extreme months).

 

Summer and winter temps are fairly uniform here, it is early spring and mid-Fall that are warming slightly.

 

DJF mean temp avg at Detroit...a roller coaster, from the mild 1880s things trended downward, then upward in the 1930s, back down in the 1960s, back up in the 1990s for a quick spike then down midway through the 2000s....

 

1880s- 27.6

1890s- 26.5

1900s- 24.9

1910s- 25.5

1920s- 25.8

1930s- 28.3

1940s- 27.0

1950s- 28.6

1960s- 26.2

1970s- 24.8

1980s- 25.9

1990s- 29.2

2000s- 27.7

2010s- 27.2

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sokolow

sokolow

Posted
Posted

The coldest year on record globally was 1909. Michigan's winter that year was 1.0F above normal.

Michigan's temp when averaged over the last 100 years is very flat, with a slight uptick over the last 30 years.

Facts are facts, the earth is warmer today than 1909, but temps are only slightly warmer on the backyard thermometer.

This warm spell is just bad luck.

Speaking globally there is compelling evidence the last 30 years are exceptional on a multimillenial timescale, and one might ascribe it to bad luck were there not a explanation with a robust theoretical and evidentiary basis.

Regionally I know a lot less about GL-OHV paleoclimate archives than places with perennial ice but afaik reconstructed temps from eg MN have a mid-Holocene "hump" similar to Marcott 2013 before the instrumental period.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Thanks for your input. Do you think there is any correlation between relatively warmer winters and more snowfall? Do the coldest winters on average provide the most snowfall? Would like to know those statistics. As we here in Buffalo tend to get more snowfall in below average winters in which Lake Erie freezes sooner than normal. Was surprised by this statistic.

Overall colder winters are snowier. Not that a cold winter cant produce low snowfall or a mild winter cant produce heavy snow, but the trends would lean towards a colder winter for more snowfall. Since the 1990s, winter temps have been on a steady cooling trend and snowfall on an upward trend. We have seen milder eras of winters and colder eras of winters than we have now, but the snowfall is reaching unchartered waters across the Lakes...there really is no set explanation as to why.

 

.............Temp.......Snow

1880s- 27.6 - 43.1"

1890s- 26.5 - 42.7"

1900s- 24.9 - 46.3"

1910s- 25.5 - 39.7"

1920s- 25.8 - 46.1"

1930s- 28.3 - 32.9"

1940s- 27.0 - 27.6"

1950s- 28.6 - 37.8"

1960s- 26.2 - 31.8"

1970s- 24.8 - 45.6"

1980s- 25.9 - 45.2"

1990s- 29.2 - 37.9"

2000s- 27.7 - 45.3"

2010s- 27.2 - 57.8"

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Overall colder winters are snowier. Not that a cold winter cant produce low snowfall or a mild winter cant produce heavy snow, but the trends would lean towards a colder winter for more snowfall. Since the 1990s, winter temps have been on a steady cooling trend and snowfall on an upward trend. We have seen milder eras of winters and colder eras of winters than we have now, but the snowfall is reaching unchartered waters across the Lakes...there really is no set explanation as to why.

 

.............Temp.......Snow

1880s- 27.6 - 43.1"

1890s- 26.5 - 42.7"

1900s- 24.9 - 46.3"

1910s- 25.5 - 39.7"

1920s- 25.8 - 46.1"

1930s- 28.3 - 32.9"

1940s- 27.0 - 27.6"

1950s- 28.6 - 37.8"

1960s- 26.2 - 31.8"

1970s- 24.8 - 45.6"

1980s- 25.9 - 45.2"

1990s- 29.2 - 37.9"

2000s- 27.7 - 45.3"

2010s- 27.2 - 57.8"

 

Thanks for this, interesting stats.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Thanks for this, interesting stats.

Some additional food for thought....

 

And this is just here, I dont know about elsewhere, but I have noticed that some of the mild winters are able to churn up a few really good winter storms even though winter as a whole is less than desirable. Some of the cold snowy winters are the type where you get many snowstorms but no one individual storm stands out, and by spring your winter just blends together as constant tundra of cold, white, blowing snow, etc. Winters are like snowflakes....no two are alike. Last winter defied all logic in getting constant cold and snowstorms, but it shouldnt have happened like that (it hadnt happened like that since 1880-81 but that year was a bit milder). 

 

The old saying sometimes you need to smell the rain to get the best snows....you want an active pattern that is constantly being stirred up, you will have to deal with a few rainstorms (see 2007-08) but you have a much better chance of getting in on big snowstorms. You want a more wintry pattern than you may not get the most impressive snowstorm, but everything else will be just right.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

We do cold rain pretty well. I'd give this one a 7 or 8 on the misery scale. But at least it won't be a "perfect 10" (33˚ and rain...for hours and hours).

 

 

Remember that one a couple winters ago I think...LAF sat at 32-33 for hours with pouring rain.  Some icing on elevated objects but mostly ran off.  That's gotta be a 10 out of 10.

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