HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I had posted earlier that I thought I had a leaf in my bucket delaying my totals. I'm glad you're up to date with yours. I'm at 1.21" now. It's coming down in buckets--clearly, things are obstructed. Yeah, my 1.6" was at 7:30AM. Up to 2.2" now. The streams were raging on my drive back from Gill. Let's hope we get one of these in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I'd say Willy Mo Pena. Dave Kingman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Logan just gusted back up to 38kt 29kt sustained Boundary layer mixing as rain stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Impressive that as far west as ALB has picked up 0.90" in the last 7 hours...that's some reach for an Atlantic firehose and no downslope concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 This is the rainstorm Gotham deserves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Made the jack comment a few days back about being in it that many days out, Voila Exactly. Bullseye at 48 hr pretty much guarantees the best will be elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 So far, two jack areas NE and S-SW of BOS. Seems like BVY to Cape Anne is the winner by a few tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Rob Deer?I was thinking more Dave Kingman like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 I am just so confused what we are giving props for.. He just says every event is going to be extreme.. and eventually one is. I take blame for thinking this one wouldn't be initially but still He may say so in posts but his thread to event ratio per sabermetrics is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Made the jack comment a few days back about being in it that many days out, Voila Meteorology is a humbling science. In hindsight the benchmark track and how far south the mid-level lows were forecasted to be by the models, probably should've adjusted precip south. I know we've been joking about that recently about NNE and fears of further south tracks in winter, but had the mid-level lows been like over GON you'd be firehosed, but south of LI it makes sense where it set up in the BOS-ALB axis. Fascinating event all-around. It not being snow makes it fascinating lol. When winter emotions are involved it may not be as interesting as pissed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Meteorology is a humbling science. In hindsight the benchmark track and how far south the mid-level lows were forecasted to be by the models, probably should've adjusted precip south. I know we've been joking about that recently about NNE and fears of further south tracks in winter, but had the mid-level lows been like over GON you'd be firehosed, but south of LI it makes sense where it set up in the BOS-ALB axis. Fascinating event all-around. It not being snow makes it fascinating lol. When winter emotions are involved it may not be as interesting as pissed off When you have convection and meso lows, it will mess around with models too. That, and a gradual tickle south. Convection robs moisture fluxes downwind of it so you'll never get a nice widespread smooth distribution of predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Rob Deer? Steve Balboni? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Broken Overcast scattered blue dotting the skies, mid-level and low decked clouds whipping (screaming) E to W. Two day total ~ 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 When you have convection and meso lows, it will mess around with models too. That, and a gradual tickle south. Convection robs moisture fluxes downwind of it so you'll never get a nice widespread smooth distribution of predict. it ain't over though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Steve Balboni?lol now thats a blast from the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Screenshot of Mass state 24 hour CoCoRAHS rain reports... Boxford 4.42" is a substantial 24 hour total lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Working down in Middleboro and hearing a jet pretty low (in the clouds). That's a long, low, very bumpy approach to Logan from all the way down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 When you have convection and meso lows, it will mess around with models too. That, and a gradual tickle south. Convection robs moisture fluxes downwind of it so you'll never get a nice widespread smooth distribution of predict. I was going to comment yesterday when you mentioned the convection that was firing around NJ, That can work in a couple different ways and most of the time i know up here it has been in a negative one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 But the QPF and PWAT would be much less in this setup. However, QPF would be more widespread with better advective proceses. I always cringe when people say "if this were winter" because if they are trying to equate this QPF to snow, it won't be realized. However, it certainly is the setup for a blockbuster. Let us dream, Scott, even if it's not realistic. I guess my jackpot comment the other day still holds some truth to it...................lol What are you showing now? It's bucketing up here. I'm only showing 1.33". I need a reality check. 44.5/44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Dave Kingman I was thinking more Dave Kingman like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Let us dream, Scott, even if it's not realistic. What are you showing now? It's bucketing up here. I'm only showing 1.33". I need a reality check. 44.5/44 At a buck and a half with off and on -SHRWN, It has been breezy though with gust in the low 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Man, this area is right in the pivot point, where bands just sit in rot. Too bad... heres your naked twister plot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 That would have had a nice Boxing Day band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 system is basically stalled and occluding out. Blocking with a neutral NAO, hmmm Its not really blocking...it's that the system has been cut-off from the main flow...hence the term "cut-off low" we often see. The main PJ is up around northern Hudson Bay and this sytem got stuck underneath it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Exactly. Bullseye at 48 hr pretty much guarantees the best will be elsewhere. Its amazing how many times that it is true as some of these sytstems shift from one direction to the next, That is why you never spike the ball at the 20 yd line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 So far, two jack areas NE and S-SW of BOS. Seems like BVY to Cape Anne is the winner by a few tenths. Classic winter configuration lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 When you have convection and meso lows, it will mess around with models too. That, and a gradual tickle south. Convection robs moisture fluxes downwind of it so you'll never get a nice widespread smooth distribution of predict. Thanks, good response. It's certainly not over but this is the time models really had the inflow going gang-busters and it should weaken as it lifts north but we'll get rain up here, just not what models had earlier. I think this sums it up so far....BOX had no flood watch or wind products 24-36 hours ago while GYX issued flood watches for up to 6" of rain. Now the entire state of Mass is under some highlight with flood advisories and warnings, wind advisories and the watches up north sit for now (still may be needed tonight though). Definitely a big over-performer for SNE, and maybe Mass will be the new CT where big weather happens? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Screenshot of Mass state 24 hour CoCoRAHS rain reports... Boxford 4.42" is a substantial 24 hour total lol. Here are storm total rainfall images from KBOX, large view and Boston zoom-in. Wasn't this heavy stuff supposed to be at Portland Maine?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Classic downslope dryslot over Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2014 Share Posted October 23, 2014 Some of that is underestimated in ern MA and bright banding causing over estimation in western MA, but there ya go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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