pawatch Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 This is an interesting map the NWS put out this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Looks like a cold rain for us LSV guys. looks like we do see a very brief period of frzn at the start and maybe some rain/snow on the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 CTP issued watches for what? One county in their CWA? Sounds like it's "on to the next one" for the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It should be mentioned that the Euro ensembles are still very bullish on this storm with 8.5" mean over 51 members in State College. What concerns me is that not many of them show the initial heavy burst that the 12Z Euro operational showed yesterday. The 8.5" occurs over a prolonged 72 hour period which makes it very unlikely IMO that we would ever see 8.5" on the ground. In any case, I like the update WPC maps. I think they capture the uncertainty/potential with this storm: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=72&ptype=snow What a spread on those "accumulation by percentiles" maps. CTPs latest also shows a sharp dropoff just south of our area. One of those events where 800 vs 1200 vs ridgetops makes all thr difference, it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I don't know, I'll just say I'll be surprised if I see more than 2-3 inches on the ground at any time from this. Expecting more like 1-2 at best. Way too many things have to go exactly right for this to work out, and the believable models are generally shying away from such a scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 It should be mentioned that the Euro ensembles are still very bullish on this storm with 8.5" mean over 51 members in State College. What concerns me is that not many of them show the initial heavy burst that the 12Z Euro operational showed yesterday. The 8.5" occurs over a prolonged 72 hour period which makes it very unlikely IMO that we would ever see 8.5" on the ground. In any case, I like the update WPC maps. I think they capture the uncertainty/potential with this storm: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=72&ptype=snow The upper low looks to be organizing and closing off later and later, which is bad news for you guys. That would lead to the scenario where NE PA mountains get real snow and no one else. Hopefully the Euro today can reverse course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 FYI GFS upgrade/parallel is back up and running again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 doesn't seem to be warming up to fast either. Aren't we suppose to be 36-38 today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Just had a brief episode of snow flurries here. Nothing really on radar. Temp holding at 29.5 degrees with a dew point of 17. I don't think we'll go much over 32 this afternoon with the thickening overcast increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Ground is white here in Fairfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I see Joe B. is calling for 6-12 inches in state college through Wednesday night for what its worth per his twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 doesn't seem to be warming up to fast either. Aren't we suppose to be 36-38 today? classic cold air damming that the models never handle well here... yet another example of why you can't forecast based on model output without understanding what all is going on. With temperatures being held this low and dew points still fairly low, I am a little more concerned now about some light freezing drizzle around here tonight than I was before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 classic cold air damming that the models never handle well here... yet another example of why you can't forecast based on model output without understanding what all is going on. With temperatures being held this low and dew points still fairly low, I am a little more concerned now about some light freezing drizzle around here tonight than I was before. yep, just what i was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Flurrying here downtown, hanging at 27 degrees. Too bad it's gonna warm up - we just can't win down this way sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hahahaha The 18z NAM was like, "There will be no storm west of I81." I mean, it's pretty insane. Even NE PA gets basically nothing significant on that run let alone CPA. The CCB just slams western NJ and then creeps into EPA then stops hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Man is this place ever dead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm sorry, but I don't buy that NWS prog for one second...here are the top 15 analogs from CIPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm more concerned about ice tomorrow a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 18z NAM is a miss for the entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Lol this was anticlimactic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Ouch That outcome was always the danger from a storm that takes forever to organize in the mid levels and therefore can't send moisture very far west into PA. I tend to think there'll be at least an inch or two for you guys but the main dynamics will be well east of you and then much of any backlash/wraparound will get eaten up by downsloping. It's a frequent tendency of these systems to trend less organized in the mid levels at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 So JM northern Lycoming county is going to get enough precip for those totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 18z NAM is a miss for the entire region. the 18z nam did something goofy yesterday also, it seems to be a pattern with this model run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 So JM northern Lycoming county is going to get enough precip for those totals? It depends on where the precip can finally push west, and northern Lycoming isn't in a bad downslope spot like IPT. The Endless Mountains usually do well, so maybe they can have a decent event. But southwest of there, yeah, it's done. Seen this way too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Take this as a "teachable moment": We now know that this type of scenario is almost impossible to cash in on this far south and west of the water. Move on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Now 18z GFS looks like it wants to hit EPA pretty good with backend stuff... and at least gets KUNV back into the .25-.50" zone... barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I'm just gonna keep watching I'm at 1070 feet east of IPT and literally a fivein drive from 6 to 8. We had a great event on Tgiving so we have had ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Per that map, I'm in quite a precarious spot. Could be big, or it could be nothing....sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Per that map, I'm in quite a precarious spot. Could be big, or it could be nothing....sheesh. I like the part where the <1" directly borders the 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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