Central PA & Fringes - Fall 2014

[pasnownut]

I hope this one pans out.  Just getting in from waterfowl hunting and its just plain raw out.  Now headed into the NE and MA forums to get caught up on the overnight runs.  Seeing moderate accums here in the LSV on USWX for Tuesday has got my interest.  

 

Nut

[Wmsptwx]

What did Euro show? Rain?

[cfbaggett]

What did Euro show? Rain?

It showed an intense closed 700 mb low near philly form hour 90 to hour 114.

[Wmsptwx]

Is that good of bad for Central and North Central PA?

[easternsnowman]

Greetings, welcome one and all to Central PA winter! We have two winter storm scenarios:

 

Scenario #1:

It's cold, and I mean really cold! Cold enough that we would get a pretty big snowstorm if it happened...oh, here  it comes! A big storm up the coast! Oh...dear, looks like it headed to 40/70 and a sharp cutoff is setting up. Unfortunately, the big cities will get dumped on and we'll be left with just snow showers/light snow adding up to an inch or two. Sorry guys, better luck next time...

 

Scenario #2:

Well, we got another big storm coming...hey, this one's looking pretty far west! Plenty precip, coming inland a bit...this is our ideal track! Oh, wait a minute...looks like no source to hold the coldest air in. Looks like it's warming up enough, and yes, I'm afraid this will be nothing but a cold rainstorm...another miss in the books.

 

Yeah...enjoy Central PA winter!

This storm looks like it's going to depend on elevation over 1000 ft should be good for a bit of snow,

[cfbaggett]

Is that good of bad for Central and North Central PA?

 

It is great for moisture transport into the state... but it may also bring in warm air aloft. I'd prefer to see the center of the 700 mb low a little more to the SW, maybe over Baltimore. Heavy banding usually occurs to the NW of the 700 mb low.

 

I think the take home message from the Euro is that this could be a very long duration event.

[skiier04]

Read this on the accuwx forum... of course just one run so take it with a grain of salt

 

Some crazy snow amounts being spit out by the 12Z Euro. Taken verbatim, Mason Dixon line north, and west of 95 is 3"+ amounts. Once to the Poconos, it ramps up some places over 2' of snow! For example, York, PA 3", Harrisburg 4", State College 6", Mt Pocono 22", Scranton/WB 25"

[MillvilleWx]

Read this on the accuwx forum... of course just one run so take it with a grain of salt

 

Some crazy snow amounts being spit out by the 12Z Euro. Taken verbatim, Mason Dixon line north, and west of 95 is 3"+ amounts. Once to the Poconos, it ramps up some places over 2' of snow! For example, York, PA 3", Harrisburg 4", State College 6", Mt Pocono 22", Scranton/WB 25"

 

I doubt any of the totals south of the turn pike would come to fruition, but areas in NE PA with higher elevation would get the business from that one run of the Euro. It's all going to depend where this storm occludes and where the 700 mb and 500 mb low will be located. On the Euro, there is a really good amount of lift in the poconos region on to the north and NE. That area would be in line with very heavy precipitation and good enough dynamics aloft to stay as a heavy wet snow storm. This one will have to be monitored throughout the state from west-central Pa on east. This could be a big surprise for many. I still want to see what happens on the 0z runs when the 3 energy pieces involved get sampled coming into the Pac NW. 

[Jim Marusak]

1: what's the UKMet going on this, as i forgot what links have live data and which ones don't.

2: is the higher-resolution GFS now the one that's operational, or is that still a week or two away?

3: how big of a wild solution is the NOGAPS attm (I know it's not thatgoo d, but still some decent wx pron)

4: since when is it that the operational NAM and Euro agree at t+72 and t+84, like the current runs?

[MillvilleWx]

1: what's the UKMet going on this, as i forgot what links have live data and which ones don't.

2: is the higher-resolution GFS now the one that's operational, or is that still a week or two away?

3: how big of a wild solution is the NOGAPS attm (I know it's not thatgoo d, but still some decent wx pron)

4: since when is it that the operational NAM and Euro agree at t+72 and t+84, like the current runs?

 

1. UKMet is a blitz but not as bad as the Euro.

2. I think we have to wait a little bit on the new GFS according to Dr. Ryan Maue on twitter.

3. That is a crazy solution. It does that every now and then.

4. That is a good question. I didn't even realize that. Good catch

[jm1220]

Greetings, welcome one and all to Central PA winter! We have two winter storm scenarios:

Scenario #1:

It's cold, and I mean really cold! Cold enough that we would get a pretty big snowstorm if it happened...oh, here it comes! A big storm up the coast! Oh...dear, looks like it headed to 40/70 and a sharp cutoff is setting up. Unfortunately, the big cities will get dumped on and we'll be left with just snow showers/light snow adding up to an inch or two. Sorry guys, better luck next time...

Scenario #2:

Well, we got another big storm coming...hey, this one's looking pretty far west! Plenty precip, coming inland a bit...this is our ideal track! Oh, wait a minute...looks like no source to hold the coldest air in. Looks like it's warming up enough, and yes, I'm afraid this will be nothing but a cold rainstorm...another miss in the books.

Yeah...enjoy Central PA winter!

There's no way we get dumped on here with anything but rain. Our choices are heavier rain with more wind or lighter rain and less wind. The beach erosion and waves might be bad with an inland track. In general though this is a snoozer outside the mountains.

[MAG5035]

Read this on the accuwx forum... of course just one run so take it with a grain of salt

 

Some crazy snow amounts being spit out by the 12Z Euro. Taken verbatim, Mason Dixon line north, and west of 95 is 3"+ amounts. Once to the Poconos, it ramps up some places over 2' of snow! For example, York, PA 3", Harrisburg 4", State College 6", Mt Pocono 22", Scranton/WB 25"

 

That is indeed what the Euro is suggesting on today's run, although this storms snow focus mainly seems focused in an excessive band of QPF from NE PA up through Binghamton into upstate NY. The easterly fetch the Euro is progging is quite tremendous, with u wind anomalies in excess of -4 st deviations. I'm not sure about the listed amounts outside of the Scranton/WB and Mt Pocono areas, especially in State College since all the snow accumulation is coming in from areas of precip progged after the main event as the closed off storm continues to sit and spin for a time.

 

The more I've looked at this the last day or so...specifically the Euro solution... the more it kind of has a December 10-12, 1992 vibe to it. That low exploded and closed off more SW of where this one is progged, which put the heart of Central PA in the middle of a historic snowstorm. This seems destined more for NE PA and northward and I'm not sure if the central counties and LSV would benefit at all from the track and somewhat narrow precip extent. There's still a lot to hash out with this, but the potential is absolutely there for a significant wet snowfall for some portion of PA. 

 

Ewall renanalysis 12/11/92:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1992/us1211.php

[Atomixwx]

 CTP posted this about an hour ago on the book of ***holes.

 

[MAG5035]

Greetings, welcome one and all to Central PA winter! We have two winter storm scenarios:

 

Scenario #1:

It's cold, and I mean really cold! Cold enough that we would get a pretty big snowstorm if it happened...oh, here  it comes! A big storm up the coast! Oh...dear, looks like it headed to 40/70 and a sharp cutoff is setting up. Unfortunately, the big cities will get dumped on and we'll be left with just snow showers/light snow adding up to an inch or two. Sorry guys, better luck next time...

 

Scenario #2:

Well, we got another big storm coming...hey, this one's looking pretty far west! Plenty precip, coming inland a bit...this is our ideal track! Oh, wait a minute...looks like no source to hold the coldest air in. Looks like it's warming up enough, and yes, I'm afraid this will be nothing but a cold rainstorm...another miss in the books.

 

Yeah...enjoy Central PA winter!

 

Scenario #1: Your in Scranton-WB and State College gets 25" while you see rain.

 

Sceanrio #2: Your in State College and the storm misses to the northeast and Scranton-WB gets 25".

 

Fixed it for ya haha.  

[Voyager]

Greetings, welcome one and all to Central PA winter! We have two winter storm scenarios:

 

Scenario #1:

It's cold, and I mean really cold! Cold enough that we would get a pretty big snowstorm if it happened...oh, here  it comes! A big storm up the coast! Oh...dear, looks like it headed to 40/70 and a sharp cutoff is setting up. Unfortunately, the big cities will get dumped on and we'll be left with just snow showers/light snow adding up to an inch or two. Sorry guys, better luck next time...

 

Scenario #2:

Well, we got another big storm coming...hey, this one's looking pretty far west! Plenty precip, coming inland a bit...this is our ideal track! Oh, wait a minute...looks like no source to hold the coldest air in. Looks like it's warming up enough, and yes, I'm afraid this will be nothing but a cold rainstorm...another miss in the books.

 

Yeah...enjoy Central PA winter!

 

Yup...pretty much the way it's been around here the past few years.

 

This storm looks like it's going to depend on elevation over 1000 ft should be good for a bit of snow,

 

And here I sit at 825 ft....

 

Scenario #1: Your in Scranton-WB and State College gets 25" while you see rain.

 

Sceanrio #2: Your in State College and the storm misses to the northeast and Scranton-WB gets 25".

 

Fixed it for ya haha.  

 

[jm1220]

All in all this can be a very nice storm for somebody but unless the upper low cuts off over the Delmarva, I doubt it's very far southwest of the Poconos. While not the best analog, the Tax Day 2007 nor'easter was progged for a while to be a big snow producer well southwest into PA, and the low then slowly began closing off later and further north on the modeling, and the result was a very mundane storm for most of the state. I remember there being a lot of snow/graupel showers in State College after an initial round of rain, and that was about it. Right now given the model trends this doesn't look like a big deal southwest of maybe the high elevations in Luzerne County. It's much better for places like the Catskills and Adirondacks and Green Mtns in Vermont where there will be the storm related snow and then tons of upslope. Given the very poor airmass, valleys anywhere might not see very much accumulation anyway.

[easternsnowman]

All in all this can be a very nice storm for somebody but unless the upper low cuts off over the Delmarva, I doubt it's very far southwest of the Poconos. While not the best analog, the Tax Day 2007 nor'easter was progged for a while to be a big snow producer well southwest into PA, and the low then slowly began closing off later and further north on the modeling, and the result was a very mundane storm for most of the state. I remember there being a lot of snow/graupel showers in State College after an initial round of rain, and that was about it. Right now given the model trends this doesn't look like a big deal southwest of maybe the high elevations in Luzerne County. It's much better for places like the Catskills and Adirondacks and Green Mtns in Vermont where there will be the storm related snow and then tons of upslope. Given the very poor airmass, valleys anywhere might not see very much accumulation anyway.

It looks good for northeast pa too.

[Wmsptwx]

What does Euro input actually show?

[NortheastPAWx]

Scenario #1: Your in Scranton-WB and State College gets 25" while you see rain.

 

Sceanrio #2: Your in State College and the storm misses to the northeast and Scranton-WB gets 25".

 

Fixed it for ya haha.  

 

I guess I can take solace in the fact that this is a setup for the valley to be rained on while the elevations cash in as JM noted. Been there done that too

[Wmsptwx]

This is one of those storms I refuse to track because I don't have the expertise to follow. Setting myself up for a miss or valley cold rain.

[easternsnowman]

Valley areas will probably get some snow depending on location.

[Blizzard of 93]

European ensemble Mean and control run, along with it's Op run with today's 12z run each had a few inches for the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The amounts they showed for Northeast PA were well over 1 Foot

[jm1220]

It looks good for northeast pa too.

Depends on when the upper low closes off and precip can wrap around the low. It could happen for the Poconos but more likely for NY State and NE from there. Late developing storms are always a long bet for PA.

[rochesterdave]

anyone up watching the euro come in? I always do. The last few euro runs give a good heavy wet snow to wny and north central pa and north west pa. but this will be a thread the needle type deal at this point. temps marginal, western extent marginal, track marginal, the pavement is still warm, . If i were a meteorologist id be going crazy. Chances are this is a lot like the last storm, gives snow totals in the upper elevations and just wet slush in the valleys. But then again, Pittsford , just south of kroc, got 5" in the last event. which was much further west than progged. but it was due to Lake Enhancement from Lake Ontario.

[Wmsptwx]

Tbh dude I don't know what to make of this storm, and when a lot has to go right, it tends not to work out. I don't get the ECMWF so when NYC or PHL don't get a storm I don't see it talked about a lot. I'm just going to be happy if we see some snowflakes on Tuesday because I don't feel real great about it.

[AllWeather]

Honestly, I'm a bit frustrated and surprised at what the models are showing. You would think, with the NAO being positive (but trending neutral in long-term), that we'd have a pretty progressive flow...not a blocked up amplified flow. But here's the kicker, the northern stream IS progressive!

 

What the models are showing is a perfectly timed cut-off low that vertically stacks off the coast. The potential is there for a big storm in NE PA and certainly into upstate NY and New England, but whether we see much in the LSV or in the central mountains is a big question mark right now. Thermal profiles in the LSV don't support snow at all until Wednesday AM. On the GFS, this would be too late as the storm will be pretty much pulling away/washing out. The new Euro (00z) is a different story as the upper-low retrogrades and actually moves due south. This would make thermal profiles favorable for a wet snow even in the LSV all the way into the end of the week. Have you seen the grid numbers for KMDT? Yikes. 

 

For the central mountains it could be an issue of being too far west of the best dynamics. Although you guys definitely have elevation playing in your favor, and this set-up would absolutely favor higher elevations. Best of both worlds is going to be where you see the Euro spitting out ridiculous snow-totals.

[MAG5035]

Tbh dude I don't know what to make of this storm, and when a lot has to go right, it tends not to work out. I don't get the ECMWF so when NYC or PHL don't get a storm I don't see it talked about a lot. I'm just going to be happy if we see some snowflakes on Tuesday because I don't feel real great about it.

 

Right now I continue to think the best chance of significant snows is residing just to your east over in northeastern PA, where the rapidly deepening low will possibly have a somewhat narrow corridor of intense precipitation which will likely be snow due to dynamics and elevation. Most guidance not named the GFS seem to generally agree with this (GFS slowly getting there). What happens in the central third of the state afterwards with the storm closing off is anyones guess at this point. The Euro would suggest a couple bouts of appreciable precip backlashing into the central counties and it would be cold enough for snow at all elevations at that point. Backlash precip off a northerly flow with a low closed off to our northeast isn't necessarily our forte, but certainly the possibility exists for a few inches of snow in that scenario.

 

Despite not really being in a very reliable range yet, should note that the SREFs seem to like central PA more in the early going, as some members are going bonkers at KAOO and KPSB (the State College one) and a pretty solid representation of much heavier QPF than the operational guidance. I would wager that there's some members that are way too far west (and wet) skewing that a bit, but the QPF mean at KAOO (with 4 ridiculous members in the 2-3" QPF range eliminated) was still about 0.5". Can't really write off this storm exploding and closing more quickly.. possibly bringing the heavy band of precip deeper into central PA, but I think the Euro solution is the way to go at this point. Not even really getting into specifics of precip-type either. Definitely a tough forecast ahead, we still got a good bit of time yet

 

To be honest I'm more impressed overall with the fact that the Euro's cut off storm for several days completely denies what should have been a major warm-up charging into the northeast after midweek. Any semblance of arctic air is routed from southern Canada.  At one point around 120 hours, +10ºC temps at 850 have charged up to the shores of the Hudson Bay while the dying closed off storm anchors sub 0ºC 850 air in most of PA all the way through hour 180 (!!). Even the GFS is similar in that regard (up to around 144). While I think we're still likely to go through a warm-up before things go back to colder late this month, this would really put a dent in the amount of time that might happen. 

[Voyager]

Interesting that CTP put this out in their hazardous weather outlook. Now I'm only looking at this from my location's point of view, but all along, I thought my location and elevation (sub 1,000 ft) would have prevented any substantial accumulation IMBY, but it seems as if, acording to State College, it is a possibility...

 

 

PAZ037-042-053-058-080945-
TIOGA-SULLIVAN-COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL-
442 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A PERIOD OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
MEASURABLE SNOW IS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

[AllWeather]

Interesting that CTP put this out in their hazardous weather outlook. Now I'm only looking at this from my location's point of view, but all along, I thought my location and elevation (sub 1,000 ft) would have prevented any substantial accumulation IMBY, but it seems as if, acording to State College, it is a possibility...

 

They already came out with a snow map:

 

http://www.weather.gov/ctp/WinterHazards

[Voyager]

I saw that. They seem to be very bullish with this event which surprises me a bit. Usually they aren't.