Central PA & Fringes - Fall 2014

[pasnownut]

Still at the cabin and about 1.5" snow and sleet. Snowed crazy hard as we were coming outta the woods tonight for about an hour. Lunker pingers right now. Hope the longer range gets better after any lull that I've read about.

[Jmister]

In State College, we have a solid coating of a sleet/ice mixture. The sleet is helping to give texture to the ground surfaces, but cars and trees and posts where sleet bounces off are left with a slick ice coating.

[Eskimo Joe]

A bit crusy on the trees and mailboxes in New Salem.  Everything else is wet.  Temp now 31/30.

[Atomixwx]

Left the office in Wertzville at 6 and it was pouring buckets. Cars and grass were very crunchy and iced over but roads were okay.

[canderson]

Serious fog in Harrisburg right now; can't see 20' in front of you.

[MillvilleWx]

Working on 48 hours of not seeing the sun. At least it's not like Harrisburg working on 3 hours of not seeing a 1/4 mile.

[sauss06]

Left the office in Wertzville at 6 and it was pouring buckets. Cars and grass were very crunchy and iced over but roads were okay.

Yeah roads were ok, but everything else iced up, even the power lines started building ice for awhile

[Eskimo Joe]

Sunday -> Tuesday timeframe looking interesting.  Both the EURO and to a lesser extent, the CMC, have a coastal low with strong 1040 mb + Quebec high.  

[MillvilleWx]

Sunday -> Tuesday timeframe looking interesting.  Both the EURO and to a lesser extent, the CMC, have a coastal low with strong 1040 mb + Quebec high.  

 

Noticed that as well. Looks like something to watch for along the 81 corridor. I think that area to the west has the best chance of a small event in terms of snow. European looks pretty good for something. Another note is the Euro builds a wave behind the system mid next week that exits too far out to sea. It also didn't look very cold on the operational run. More like normal for this time of year. No 60's-70's like we saw this past week.

 

Edit: Man, after looking at the ensembles of the Euro, this is a pretty interesting evolution for this system. At least it's something cool to track hopefully.

[MillvilleWx]

Last nights Euro run was the single most boring run in this part of the year I have seen in a long time. I guess that gives me some time for Finals week 

[canderson]

Yeah, winter's on hold through the the first three weeks of this month at least it seems.

 

Saturday's going to pour rain unfortunately. We'll be in NYC leading a walking tour - that's gonna suck.

[pawatch]

Looks like ice tomorrow morning for some of us.

[Voyager]

Yeah, winter's on hold through the the first three weeks months of this month the year at least it seems.

 

Now your talking!!!

 

[Eskimo Joe]

I'm giving this winter until first week of Jan...after that...el busto.

[MAG5035]

Last nights Euro run was the single most boring run in this part of the year I have seen in a long time. I guess that gives me some time for Finals week 

 

 

Yeah, winter's on hold through the the first three weeks of this month at least it seems.

 

Saturday's going to pour rain unfortunately. We'll be in NYC leading a walking tour - that's gonna suck.

 

Yea the weather pattern has made quite the shift. Going back to last week prior to the pre-Thanksgiving snowstorm I knew some kind of shift was coming this week and beyond, but there was a lot of uncertainty at that point.  But pretty much after picking up where winter left off last February/March pattern wise for basically the last half of November we have settled into a very el nino looking pattern for the time being (and not the cold, snowy kind). That's not to say there aren't chances for wintry weather, but any kind of a consistent cold/snowy pattern looks to be on the bench for now. 

 

The big keys I see with the teleconnection forecasts attm are a continued +NAO and a developing +EPO.. The EPO being the biggest influence in my opinion. +EPO promotes lower pressures near Alaska and a very strong Pac jet that floods the US with a pacific airmass while cutting off the cold air up north. Even though the PNA is forecast to be positive as well (western ridging), the lack of downstream blocking via the NAO is still going to make for a progressive strong zonal flow across the US. Last winter, we got the job done cold-wise a good part of the time without much help with the NAO because of a persistently negative EPO. Additionally, the super-typhoon bearing down on the Phillipines had earlier on been forecast to make a recurve poleward.. which could have helped drive Alaskan ridging much like the typhoon turned superstorm in the Bering Sea back in November did. The typhoon is now forecast to remain on a WNW trajectory impacting the Phillipines and not making a turn.

 

Teleconnections:

 

So pretty much, aside from what the potential coastal early next week does or doesn't do, I don't see too much to be excited about beyond that in terms of a sustainable winter pattern for now. If we get a significant coastal and cutoff like most guidance not named the GFS is suggesting, then it will delay (but probably not deny) the impending overrun of Pacific air into the northeastern US via the strong +EPO driven jet later next week. Speaking of the coastal, right now it looks most impacts would be northeast of our area.. but should keep an eye on things. Otherwise, the main question at this point looks to be whether or not winter returns in time for the Christmas holiday.

[MillvilleWx]

Yea the weather pattern has made quite the shift. Going back to last week prior to the pre-Thanksgiving snowstorm I knew some kind of shift was coming this week and beyond, but there was a lot of uncertainty at that point. But pretty much after picking up where winter left off last February/March pattern wise for basically the last half of November we have settled into a very el nino looking pattern for the time being (and not the cold, snowy kind). That's not to say there aren't chances for wintry weather, but any kind of a consistent cold/snowy pattern looks to be on the bench for now.

The big keys I see with the teleconnection forecasts attm are a continued +NAO and a developing +EPO.. The EPO being the biggest influence in my opinion. +EPO promotes lower pressures near Alaska and a very strong Pac jet that floods the US with a pacific airmass while cutting off the cold air up north. Even though the PNA is forecast to be positive as well (western ridging), the lack of downstream blocking via the NAO is still going to make for a progressive strong zonal flow across the US. Last winter, we got the job done cold-wise a good part of the time without much help with the NAO because of a persistently negative EPO. Additionally, the super-typhoon bearing down on the Phillipines had earlier on been forecast to make a recurve poleward.. which could have helped drive Alaskan ridging much like the typhoon turned superstorm in the Bering Sea back in November did. The typhoon is now forecast to remain on a WNW trajectory impacting the Phillipines and not making a turn.

Teleconnections:

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So pretty much, aside from what the potential coastal early next week does or doesn't do, I don't see too much to be excited about beyond that in terms of a sustainable winter pattern for now. If we get a significant coastal and cutoff like most guidance not named the GFS is suggesting, then it will delay (but probably not deny) the impending overrun of Pacific air into the northeastern US via the strong +EPO driven jet later next week. Speaking of the coastal, right now it looks most impacts would be northeast of our area.. but should keep an eye on things. Otherwise, the main question at this point looks to be whether or not winter returns in time for the Christmas holiday.

Good write up Mag. I've been busy all day with school and haven't had time to blow my nose let alone look at weather. From the hot min I looked, the outlook going into week 3 of December is pretty meh. I agree completely on the EPO being the major key in getting a more favorable winter pattern to develop. People want an NAO so bad, but we haven't had consistent blocking in the North Atlantic during the winter season since 09-10 and we have still managed some pretty good events. I wouldn't write off winter by any means. I said to everyone I know back in November that I thought winter wouldn't make a breakthrough till probably mid-late January and February would be the big ticket month. We'll see if that comes to fruition. Patience is a virtue and some don't have any when it comes to snow and storms. If it does it does, if it doesn't then it's time to move on.

[rochesterdave]

Well that was an interesting Euro run. Cant wait until someone illegally posts the snowfall. WNY and NW Penna look to get killed with this ridiculous rendition of the euro taking a NorEaster from Boston to Albany and then to portland over a 2 day period. Would be epic for anyone south of Lakes ontario and Erie. As well as anyone in the mountains of SW Ny and NW and North Central PA. Anyone east of 81 would just see mess, except for maybe an early burst of 3". But Rochester-Syr-Buf corridor would get a 12-18 inch deal. I'm not biting..... YET.

[djr5001]

Well the Euro appears to be locked in several days out while GFS is still off in la-la land (surprise surprise).  To me this already looks like a classic case where the GFS over amplifies northern stream energy while all other models show something different and similar to the Euro.  Northeast PA takes a pretty good hit on this 12z Euro run (AVP has qpf of ~2" over a 24 hour period!).  With temperatures not significantly cold prior to this system, at this range it looks like it could be a rain to snow event where we would need the colder air to pull in on the backside for significant accumulations.  Still 5 days out but hard not to have mild interest after the Euro's performance of late.

[MillvilleWx]

Well the Euro appears to be locked in several days out while GFS is still off in la-la land (surprise surprise). To me this already looks like a classic case where the GFS over amplifies northern stream energy while all other models show something different and similar to the Euro. Northeast PA takes a pretty good hit on this 12z Euro run (AVP has qpf of ~2" over a 24 hour period!). With temperatures not significantly cold prior to this system, at this range it looks like it could be a rain to snow event where we would need the colder air to pull in on the backside for significant accumulations. Still 5 days out but hard not to have mild interest after the Euro's performance of late.

I think the best thing to do is take any runs from now till 0z Sunday and admire them and not put too much stock into them until we get sampling over land. If you take a look at all the models, there are 3 distinct pieces involved all of them are over the pacific with little saming data to work from. They should be on land around 18-20z tomorrow, so it'll be interesting to see the evolution the models bring once that occurs. I still find it crazy that the Euro and even the Canadian show a formidable EC storm this far out and haven't really wavered on the idea. How we get there has changed, but the overall idea has been on the table. I don't see this being a huge deal south of the turnpike, but you never know. NE PA looks to be the spot that bears watching.

[skiier04]

Wow some really crazy model runs today from the 12z suite. This one is sure looking a lot more interesting than it did a day or two ago... CMC, Euro, Ukie all locked in on a very dynamic event with a classic CPA snow track... GFS also slowly seems to be catching on with some major changes in the upper levels today... with no cold air at the start though it still might be hard to get significant snow accumulation for many of us.

[Jmister]

I am pleasantly surprised to see these trends with the upcoming storm. At the very least it's another trackable event!

 

In the meantime, however, this freezing rain has held on way longer than I expected. I just got my ass kicked trying to take my dogs out. I slipped down 10 or so wooden steps to my backyard! It is just inching above freezing in State College now... 

[2001kx]

I am pleasantly surprised to see these trends with the upcoming storm. At the very least it's another trackable event!

 

In the meantime, however, this freezing rain has held on way longer than I expected. I just got my ass kicked trying to take my dogs out. I slipped down 10 or so wooden steps to my backyard! It is just inching above freezing in State College now... 

The main roads are good here but the mile long dirt road i live on is a skating rink.

[2001kx]

Well that was an interesting Euro run. Cant wait until someone illegally posts the snowfall. WNY and NW Penna look to get killed with this ridiculous rendition of the euro taking a NorEaster from Boston to Albany and then to portland over a 2 day period. Would be epic for anyone south of Lakes ontario and Erie. As well as anyone in the mountains of SW Ny and NW and North Central PA. Anyone east of 81 would just see mess, except for maybe an early burst of 3". But Rochester-Syr-Buf corridor would get a 12-18 inch deal. I'm not biting..... YET.

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/pcb.784650314915562/784650268248900/?type=1&theater

[canderson]

I am pleasantly surprised to see these trends with the upcoming storm. At the very least it's another trackable event!

 

In the meantime, however, this freezing rain has held on way longer than I expected. I just got my ass kicked trying to take my dogs out. I slipped down 10 or so wooden steps to my backyard! It is just inching above freezing in State College now... 

Ouch, hope you're OK!

[MAG5035]

Well the Euro appears to be locked in several days out while GFS is still off in la-la land (surprise surprise).  To me this already looks like a classic case where the GFS over amplifies northern stream energy while all other models show something different and similar to the Euro.  Northeast PA takes a pretty good hit on this 12z Euro run (AVP has qpf of ~2" over a 24 hour period!).  With temperatures not significantly cold prior to this system, at this range it looks like it could be a rain to snow event where we would need the colder air to pull in on the backside for significant accumulations.  Still 5 days out but hard not to have mild interest after the Euro's performance of late.

 

Yea the GFS at least..sort of has something now but it's faster and a good bit weaker than what other guidance has today. The Canadian model (and the JMA model if you want to dip into the JV squad) have solutions that cut in even more than the Euro does today, spreading heavier precip deep into central PA. Even the ever reliable 12z NAM at 84 hours had a solution that was way inside the Euro's at that point with the low just of the South Carolina coast and heavier precip deep into western/central NC and VA.

 

Solutions are going to be all over the place for awhile with this setup. While I'm starting to think that it is likely we see a decent coastal around, whether or not Central PA gets into the good precip and thus snow potential is going to hinge on where this thing explodes and closes off at. Speaking of snow, this looks like yet another highly marginal event if it came to fruition for our area.. and one that will depend on dynamic cooling and elevation. The cold air just isn't around despite a very strong high being progged to the north. 

[rochesterdave]

This storm is putting out signals, with the non US models (and NAM) that interior Northeast, north of Penn south border, should be on guard for a long lasting, heavy precip laden snow storm. Lots of time to go, but Ukmet shows perfect set up for a wet hvy snow over western and central ny. same with penna. where is everyone?

[canderson]

This storm is putting out signals, with the non US models (and NAM) that interior Northeast, north of Penn south border, should be on guard for a long lasting, heavy precip laden snow storm. Lots of time to go, but Ukmet shows perfect set up for a wet hvy snow over western and central ny. same with penna. where is everyone?

It'll be an elevation storm here, so many of us again just get rain.

[Voyager]

It'll be an elevation storm here, so many of us again just get rain.

 

So there is nothing to discuss (on a weather board) if it's just going to be rain? Shouldn't any significant to major storm be worthy of discussion, especially if this one were to behave like some models are indicating.

[canderson]

So there is nothing to discuss (on a weather board) if it's just going to be rain? Shouldn't any significant to major storm be worthy of discussion, especially if this one were to behave like some models are indicating.

I meant some of us don't want to invest energy again just to fail!

[Voyager]

I meant some of us don't want to invest energy again just to fail!

 

I understand. I'm no stranger to weather failure. The pre-turkey day storm was a prime example.