Blizzard of 93 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Yet Again, the Euro, the best model by far, shows with the current 12z run around 4 inches for Harrisburg, 8 for State College, and over a foot for NE PA by the time the main precip shield moves out. With continued light snow, It actually adds another 2 inches to these totals by the time the Low finally moves away. Even if mixing and poor ratios lower these totals, Most of our region should get a few inches from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 So basically we need the ECM verbatim to get a decent snowfall. Or the RGEM/GEM, or any of the many Euro ensembles, and even some of the GFS ensembles. That initial pulse of ppt on the EURO and RGEM is crucial I think for setting the stage for the remaining 5 days of the storm. Temps are marginal, so putting down the snowcover initially should allow the lighter events to accumulate over the coming days. The 0Z Euro showed a much weaker initial pulse, so even though it showed decent snow, I was skeptical about how much it would actually add up. The 12Z shows much more of a piling up situation. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 If only we we have some decent blocking, this would be a killer event. agreed, the strength of the cold air dam is a major factor, especially as it looks like a westward trend in the models, going 00z run to 12z. but if you look at the different models, even on the euro, it looks like the 0C 850hPa line is pretty much up and down I-81 before turning east on I-84 near Scranton. and that 0C line is quite crucial on the p-type with this system. however this plays out, it will be a gamble on where to set that line, with liquid/ice to the east, and snow to the west. and those types of fine-line forecasts are a real PITA. just for a bit of reference, here's the Canadian regional precip type plot at t+48, courtesy of EC http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/regional/2014120712/2014120712_054_R1_east_I_4PAN_QPFTYPES@006_048.jpg the 850 critical temp map http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/regional/2014120712/2014120712_054_R1_east_I_CLASSIC_gz850@tt850_048.png and the classic 4-panel. http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/regional/2014120712/2014120712_054_R1_east_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@006_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Euro Control run and Ensemble mean supports its OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Euro Control run and Ensemble mean supports its OP run. Good to hear. NAM is coming in west as well. 12 km run should raise some eyebrows: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The earlier closing off is key for the Central PA crew-it forces the track a little west and aids the moisture transport west from the deep easterly fetch from the Atlantic. I think it needs to close off over the northern Delmarva for places well southwest of the Poconos to have a real chance at heavy snow. If the Euro's right most of the mountainous parts of central/eastern PA have a good shot. The valleys will have a tough time because of the marginal airmass. This may be an instance of UNV and AOO getting pounded above 1000 feet and places like Selinsgrove and maybe even Williamsport at a few hundred feet getting a mix or tough to accumulate snow. It's pretty clear someone will get a big amount of snow, question is how far southwest that can begin. As others have mentioned there will be a cranking jet off the Atlantic between the strong high and closing off low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Oh I hate to ask an IMBY question, but I'm not exactly in the Poconos but the mountainous coal region to the southwest. I sit at 825', but am in a bit of a "valley" surrounded by hills at or above 1,000' and the Hazleton/McAdoo area at 1,500'-2,000'. I've got to wonder where we are here in Schuylkill County as most of the posts have mentioned the Poconos and the State College/Harrisburg/Williamsport areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm cautiously optimistic for accumulating snow chances for our region, but no matter what happens this storm is a fascinating one to track. can't think of a single good analogue in the ~10 years i've been seriously following winter weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 and the gfs still says 0 precip for the western 2/3 of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Oh I hate to ask an IMBY question, but I'm not exactly in the Poconos but the mountainous coal region to the southwest. I sit at 825', but am in a bit of a "valley" surrounded by hills at or above 1,000' and the Hazleton/McAdoo area at 1,500'-2,000'. I've got to wonder where we are here in Schuylkill County as most of the posts have mentioned the Poconos and the State College/Harrisburg/Williamsport areas. looking at the 18Z NAM bufkit for ABE and AVP, it may actually be worse in the valley where Tamaqua sits than higher up on i-80 and upper stretches of 309 near Hazleton, as the warm air aloft plateaus aoa 920hPa aoa 820m/2600ft asl. so it may actually be warmer in Hazleton and the ridgetops than down in the valleys. So I wouldn't be totally shocked if Hazleton/HZL was regular rain where downtown Tamaqua was freezing rain or even sleet (depending on how steep the inversion is). As the milder air deepens and eventually mixes out the cold, it should be rain at all levels. To be blunt, people all over the place in eastern PA using mPing and/or facebook/twitter on this storm for p-type may help the most to track where that line is more than the RAP, HRR, or high res meso models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Oh I hate to ask an IMBY question, but I'm not exactly in the Poconos but the mountainous coal region to the southwest. I sit at 825', but am in a bit of a "valley" surrounded by hills at or above 1,000' and the Hazleton/McAdoo area at 1,500'-2,000'. I've got to wonder where we are here in Schuylkill County as most of the posts have mentioned the Poconos and the State College/Harrisburg/Williamsport areas. IMO, it's too early to say for sure (for any of us, in fact... this will be a nowcast event as it unfolds). But you do have a decent chance at finding yourself under heavy banding which would/could/should cool the column enough to produce snow accumulations. FWIW, the 12Z Euro is printing out about 2.5" liquid equivalent for Tamaqua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm cautiously optimistic for accumulating snow chances for our region, but no matter what happens this storm is a fascinating one to track. can't think of a single good analogue in the ~10 years i've been seriously following winter weather here. Same--and as the first real event for the area that I'll actually be in C PA for, I'm excited to watch this play out. Latest CTP disco is kinda depressing, even if realistic though. "HELD OFF ON ANY WATCH ISSUANCE THIS PERIOD AS WE MAY BE ONLY DEALING WITH ONE OR TWO COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST CWA ZONES." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Same--and as the first real event for the area that I'll actually be in C PA for, I'm excited to watch this play out. Latest CTP disco is kinda depressing, even if realistic though. "HELD OFF ON ANY WATCH ISSUANCE THIS PERIOD AS WE MAY BE ONLY DEALING WITH ONE OR TWO COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST CWA ZONES." Especially weird after that super bullish snowmap they posted this morning...CTP always seems to love the GFS though... imo that model is still totally out to lunch with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm cautiously optimistic for accumulating snow chances for our region, but no matter what happens this storm is a fascinating one to track. can't think of a single good analogue in the ~10 years i've been seriously following winter weather here. This could really be a nice event out your way if the upper low center goes underneath you and closes off to the south. December 1992 was a storm like that and had huge accumulations in the mountains. Elevation also shouldn't be a problem 1000 feet and above. The other extreme is the ultra-progressive GFS that doesn't spin up a nice storm until it's out near us on Long Island. I'd go with the Euro and ensembles much more though. Tonight and tomorrow will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Especially weird after that super bullish snowmap they posted this morning...CTP always seems to love the GFS though... imo that model is still totally out to lunch with this one. It does seem like they are leaning toward the GFS in their discussion: "AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY..." That's not exactly what the Euro is showing... The Euro shows a peak intensity at 0Z Wed with the low hanging out near NYC thru 12Z Wed and a second low forming way offshore entering New England 0Z Thurs. This is a much more complicated storm than the GFS is showing. Maybe they are under some sort of obligation to use the GFS rather than the Euro. I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Thanks guys for answering. I really do hate to ask the IMBY questions, but as I'm the only one living over here, the area doesn't get talked about as much as the more populated "metro areas". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Maybe they are under some sort of obligation to use the GFS rather than the Euro. I don't know. 'Murica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This storm is confusing if we get precip in CPA will it mainly be rain here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 looking at the 18Z NAM bufkit for ABE and AVP, it may actually be worse in the valley where Tamaqua sits than higher up on i-80 and upper stretches of 309 near Hazleton, as the warm air aloft plateaus aoa 920hPa aoa 820m/2600ft asl. so it may actually be warmer in Hazleton and the ridgetops than down in the valleys. So I wouldn't be totally shocked if Hazleton/HZL was regular rain where downtown Tamaqua was freezing rain or even sleet (depending on how steep the inversion is). As the milder air deepens and eventually mixes out the cold, it should be rain at all levels. To be blunt, people all over the place in eastern PA using mPing and/or facebook/twitter on this storm for p-type may help the most to track where that line is more than the RAP, HRR, or high res meso models. Thats assuming the NAM is correct. GFS and Euro look better for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Thats assuming the NAM is correct. GFS and Euro look better for the region. Even the nam has some snow for eastern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Thats assuming the NAM is correct. GFS and Euro look better for the region. of course. but using that as an example of the potential is there for unconventional solutions here. as for the 18z bufkits off the GFS for AVP and ABE, it shows and earlier switchover due to being slightly cooler between 800 and 900hPa. but it still shows a similar-style inversion of that nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This storm is confusing if we get precip in CPA will it mainly be rain here? No. I like WPC's maps: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=72&ptype=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Whomever is running CTP's Facebook seems a little more than slightly annoyed by the scrutiny for no issuances by the ween brigade. Kinda makes me wish David Tolleris worked for NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 This storm is confusing if we get precip in CPA will it mainly be rain here? Euro seems to be showing 5-8" and the Nam is showing more. But the Nam is usually over done. Right now l'm thinking 3-5" for our area. But it is still early. Also wondering who will end up getting dry slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Whomever is running CTP's Facebook seems a little more than slightly annoyed by the scrutiny for no issuances by the ween brigade. Kinda makes me wish David Tolleris worked for NWS. Lol I saw them post the probs, hadn't looked at the comments.. my god haha. Though I will admit it is a bit confusing from a standpoint of the met updating the long term and saying might only need watches for 1 or two counties in the northeast while they're posting WPC's afternoon products on F-book that would suggest reasonable confidence in eventually having to place watches in the majority of the central third of the state. CTP still has a little bit of time yet to consider headlines, I suspect they might ponder tonights 0z guidance yet and then make a decision on some initial headline placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Whomever is running CTP's Facebook seems a little more than slightly annoyed by the scrutiny for no issuances by the ween brigade. Kinda makes me wish David Tolleris worked for NWS. They are doing the best they can with what is in front of them. I think CTP has done a great job with warnings and advisories during this young season, including this event. For this event, there's still too much spread in the models. Even if they went 100% with the Euro, its ensembles leave too much doubt to be confident in anything... hopefully things will be clearer at 0Z. If the Euro is still on board, and I expect it to be, then IMO they should at least issue a watch for Central and NE PA, as the event, if it occurs, will be around 24 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Whomever is running CTP's Facebook seems a little more than slightly annoyed by the scrutiny for no issuances by the ween brigade. Kinda makes me wish David Tolleris worked for NWS. Heh...bet there would be some great AFDs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 ALEET ALEET!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 LOL NAM is dryer again. I feel bad for CTP, this storm is impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 LOL NAM is dryer again. I feel bad for CTP, this storm is impossible. NAM is nice for LSV colder wetter.....looks like the EURO to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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