Mallow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think whatever we get through tomorrow morning should be snow. But tomorrow during the day could be rain or a wet, non-sticking snow. Then back to snow, but who knows how much we get after tomorrow night... The stuff coming in from the south looks nice right now, but if some models are to be believed, that will mostly fizzle as it moves in, with just lighter snow. Not sure if that actually happens, though. So much for "just snow tonight" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The 0Z NAM is ever so slightly different than the 18Z NAM. Good model. Lol, made me look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The 0Z NAM is ever so slightly different than the 18Z NAM. Good model. WTF NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Confused...why the WTF posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 NAM shows like what, 14" over Williamsport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 NAM shows like what, 14" over Williamsport? Well if it was all snow it would be a lot... but it's not all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Confused...why the WTF posts? The NAM had a major shift between 18z and 00z... even within 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 RUC also has 1-2" of QPF in the next 24 hours for unv and the entire lehigh valley and when you're looking at the RUC... you know you're desperate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Well.....18Z Nam gives me < 0.25" total for whole storm. Six hours later it says oops....just kidding....you're getting close to 1.50" of liquid. What's an inch and a quarter among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 LOL, this storm is frustrating. I'm finishing my six pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The NAM had a major shift between 18z and 00z... even within 6 hours. Pretty wild... went from .01 QPF here at 18z to what looks like about .7" at 0z... still has centre county right in the middle of a super tight gradient though... forget these models though... time to focus on the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I truly hate the NAM. The only question for me is do I go to Towanda or Mt Pocono tomorrow. Decisions decisions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Meanwhile CTP trims back the snow map even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Meanwhile CTP trims back the snow map even more Still think that's more likely than the 00z NAM's solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 WOW at that map! Guessing no warnings on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Well at least there's no more <1 and 6-8 areas bordering each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 RGEM is a miss for CPA. Way east w/ 2nd batch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The NAM should be shot, lit on fire, thrown in a vat of chromic acid, then shot again. That Eastern Weather FB group is smarter than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 HRRR likes CPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The NAM should be shot, lit on fire, thrown in a vat of chromic acid, then shot again. That Eastern Weather FB group is smarter than the NAM. I think S&S is too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 HRRR likes CPAwtf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Hrrr is like the polar opposite of ctps map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Remember that new soundings and other data get ingested into 12z and 0z runs of the NAM and that is not the case for the most part for 6z and 18z... the off hour runs can be initialized with data that is already several hours old and often also assuming conditions at 18z that are not always correct. I often pay minimal attention to any wild swings on a 6 or 18z run. NWS seems to be riding each run of NAM/GFS because that is how the snow maps seem to be changing... I imagine the snow forecasts will come up some tonight for some areas and not sure why they dropped so low right now... They did increase some of the ice forecasts which I was concerned with earlier. Even the 0z NAM looks like classic ice storm material for LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 My ice storm fears are def coming into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The 15hr HRRR is about the equivalent of the 84hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 new GFS shows nice banding for E PA on Wednesday.....who knows what happens but believe many places see accumulating snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 new GFS shows nice banding for E PA on Wednesday.....who knows what happens but believe many places see accumulating snow out of this. PGFS isn't so great tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Well.....18Z Nam gives me < 0.25" total for whole storm. Six hours later it says oops....just kidding....you're getting close to 1.50" of liquid. What's an inch and a quarter among friends? momma nature using her torture devices to her fullest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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