Blizz Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I like the part where the <1" directly borders the 6-8" Haha that's in a few places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Now 18z GFS looks like it wants to hit EPA pretty good with backend stuff... and at least gets KUNV back into the .25-.50" zone... barely. A lot of that's probably showery type snow that adds up over a very long time, and sometimes it doesn't catch onto downsloping like other models do. It looks like there could be something of a front end that makes it west of I-81 for a time before it consolidates into the coastal low, so maybe that can be something. I'd say 1-2" for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 A lot of that's probably showery type snow that adds up over a very long time, and sometimes it doesn't catch onto downsloping like other models do. It looks like there could be something of a front end that makes it west of I-81 for a time before it consolidates into the coastal low, so maybe that can be something. I'd say 1-2" for you guys. Agreed. Actually I wouldn't be shocked at 2-3" here in State College, but not on the ground... total. I'd be surprised to see 2"+ on the ground at any point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I like the part where the <1" directly borders the 6-8" Well, that's almost happened a few times here. I've had a coating here in town and just 10 miles north in McAdoo, but 1,000 ft higher, they've had 4-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Well, that's almost happened a few times here. I've had a coating here in town and just 10 miles north in McAdoo, but 1,000 ft higher, they've had 4-6 inches. I believe it. And this certainly seems like the kind of storm where that could happen again. Rooting for you guys out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 ctp issued wswatches through out their coverage area. Not sure what that means,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 ctp issued wswatches through out their coverage area. Not sure what that means,,, Not seeing any other watches besides the initial northeast counties they put one up for. Just an advisory for <1" and a little ice here. Agree with Mallow that I'd be shocked to see more than 2" here. Maybe a couple lucky folks in the central mountains could pull 2-4" if the back end end stuff comes through but we all know you can't ever count on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Rick I think you are seeing a winter weather advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 At least we're just plain ol' out of it here. The valley/mountain difference has been the personal bane of many a winter storm back home Btw, shouldn't we get a new thread going? We're over 1,100 replies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Feel like the adv in the central mountains is a sort of hedging their bets in the case that we get more snow. It doesn't look like we're getting disruptive amounts of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Feel like the adv in the central mountains is a sort of hedging their bets in the case that we get more snow. It doesn't look like we're getting disruptive amounts of ice Any freezing rain at all causes a WWA. That combined with the snow/sleet is why they have advisories. Point and click shows less than a half inch of snow each panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Hello 18Z GFS! If you are looking for a model to hug in the LSV this is the one. Some quick math on the qpf after the lower levels drop below freezing early Wednesday am shows over 1" of precipitation coming through the day. I'm starting to believe that we may see accumulating snow here. I wasn't expecting anything out of this storm. Very tricky forecast to state the obvious. Good luck to those who do this for a living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Lol I think discussion for this storm for true CPA is over, I'm even highly doubting Columbia, N.Lycoming or Sullivan have warning level accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Is there any possible way the CCB develops 80 miles further west lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I believe it. And this certainly seems like the kind of storm where that could happen again. Rooting for you guys out there. Thanks, but my confidence level is pretty low right now. CTP can't even figure out if we should be in an advisory or a warning. Less than 12 hours from onset and still just a watch. I'm not sure I've ever seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Thanks, but my confidence level is pretty low right now. CTP can't even figure out if we should be in an advisory or a warning. Less than 12 hours from onset and still just a watch. I'm not sure I've ever seen that before. Hope you guys get a mega band!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Hello 18Z GFS! If you are looking for a model to hug in the LSV this is the one. Some quick math on the qpf after the lower levels drop below freezing early Wednesday am shows over 1" of precipitation coming through the day. I'm starting to believe that we may see accumulating snow here. I wasn't expecting anything out of this storm. Very tricky forecast to state the obvious. Good luck to those who do this for a living. I'm taking it with a grain of salt but I'd love to see it happen... wonder what the para GFS snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Oddly the 18z GFS ensembles are actually the snowiest yet, with a mean of almost 5" of snow. Several of the members are above 0.75". I don't know what to believe anymore... probably safest to assume the 18z GEFS is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I'm taking it with a grain of salt but I'd love to see it happen... wonder what the para GFS snows. The para has the band as well in the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Lol I think discussion for this storm for true CPA is over, I'm even highly doubting Columbia, N.Lycoming or Sullivan have warning level accum. way too early for a call like that with this storm, IMO. this will be a nowcasting situation from start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Oddly the 18z GFS ensembles are actually the snowiest yet, with a mean of almost 5" of snow. Several of the members are above 0.75". I don't know what to believe anymore... probably safest to assume the 18z GEFS is out to lunch. Well the last euro run still showed 4" here so we've got that on our side too... but these storms are definitely more fun if you just keep your expectations low It's nowcasting time anyway... looks like we could be in line to get involved with some of that precip down in VA/WV right now but its gonna be close. Do you think we'll see an extended period of mixed precip at the start, or should we be expecting predominately snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Well the last euro run still showed 4" here so we've got that on our side too... but these storms are definitely more fun if you just keep your expectations low It's nowcasting time anyway... looks like we could be in line to get involved with some of that precip down in VA/WV right now but its gonna be close. Do you think we'll see an extended period of mixed precip at the start, or should we be expecting predominately snow? I think whatever we get through tomorrow morning should be snow. But tomorrow during the day could be rain or a wet, non-sticking snow. Then back to snow, but who knows how much we get after tomorrow night... The stuff coming in from the south looks nice right now, but if some models are to be believed, that will mostly fizzle as it moves in, with just lighter snow. Not sure if that actually happens, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Getting some reports from friends that areas around Franklin and Huntingdon Counties are getting pretty rough with ice already. Fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I think whatever we get through tomorrow morning should be snow. But tomorrow during the day could be rain or a wet, non-sticking snow. Then back to snow, but who knows how much we get after tomorrow night... The stuff coming in from the south looks nice right now, but if some models are to be believed, that will mostly fizzle as it moves in, with just lighter snow. Not sure if that actually happens, though. Thanks as always for your input! This is still looking like a fun one to track. Hope at least some on this forum can overperform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Have a mix of light snow and freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 The 0Z NAM is ever so slightly different than the 18Z NAM. Good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Actually getting something similar in state college... very small droplets of uncertain precip but a lot of them falling right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Ice forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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