MJO812 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Dont sweat it try finding there November forecast issued Oct 26th. lol at the cfs. PNA is going positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2014 Share Posted November 27, 2014 Cmc and Euro shows light snow next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Talk about a major, and I mean major, off-the-charts blowtorch being advertised by the CFS. I think this model nailed December 2011's forecast. If this verifies, we will be heading for a December that would be worse than 2011's in terms of record warmth: (courtesy of Don S. in main weather forum) lol after its biblical bust for November its re-named "Cant Forecast Sh*t" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 lol after its biblical bust for November its re-named "Cant Forecast Sh*t" Cfs changes more than I change my underwear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Yeah out of the broadcast mets in the NYC area Craig is definitely my favorite. One of the only respectable mets that are left in tv land besides Nick Gregory, Lee Goldberg, etc. Lee did a good job with this storm. He kept pushing elevation with November storms. That worked out great . Although he did bust in NYC along with NWS he at least acknowledged elevation would be key north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 lol after its biblical bust for November its re-named "Cant Forecast Sh*t" That would mean the most insane zonal flow ever with the polar jet locked in place with little movement. Notice the insane torch south and the below normal in central Canada. That would take a jet stuck completely in place to happen . Based on recent climo it has almost a zero percent chance of verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 It was right around this time back in November 2011 when the posters in this entire forum began cancelling winter left and right based on the death Alaskan vortex, +NAO and raging +AO/+EPO. Hell, even AccuWeather's Henry Margusity began to poo-poo the upcoming winter back then. That winter just brings shivers down my spine, and not in a good way. Currently, I am re-reading the bullish 2011-2012 winter outlooks from various AmericanWx meteorologists that were made in October 2011. It's funny when you look at the one common image that they used to support their methodology for their cold and snowy winter forecasts: the November Atlantic SST anomalies snapshot which "should" imply a moderate-strong -NAO for the overall winter. That image from November 2011, at least on the Atlantic side, looks fairly similar to November 2014 with regards to the SST anomalies. If one looks back at the SST anomalies on November 2010, the waters just south of Greenland were so much warmer than the above mentioned cases and we know how that winter of 2010-2011 played out. So where am I going with this? I would like to know the source of such confidence elicited from most meteorologists in here that there will be at least a moderate -NAO this winter, even though current North Atlantic SSTs are fairly similar to those from November 2011. Moreover, there was a moderate -QBO in November 2011, which supposedly promotes blocking, just like we have now. No disrespect intended for any meteorologist here, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 For pretty much the same reasons you just mentioned I have been thinking the same thing. I'm just glad somebody else said it before me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 It was right around this time back in November 2011 when the posters in this entire forum began cancelling winter left and right based on the death Alaskan vortex, +NAO and raging +AO/+EPO. Hell, even AccuWeather's Henry Margusity began to poo-poo the upcoming winter back then. That winter just brings shivers down my spine, and not in a good way. Currently, I am re-reading the bullish 2011-2012 winter outlooks from various AmericanWx meteorologists that were made in October 2011. It's funny when you look at the one common image that they used to support their methodology for their cold and snowy winter forecasts: the November Atlantic SST anomalies snapshot which "should" imply a moderate-strong -NAO for the overall winter. That image from November 2011, at least on the Atlantic side, looks fairly similar to November 2014 with regards to the SST anomalies. If one looks back at the SST anomalies on November 2010, the waters just south of Greenland were so much warmer than the above mentioned cases and we know how that winter of 2010-2011 played out. So where am I going with this? I would like to know the source of such confidence elicited from most meteorologists in here that there will be at least a moderate -NAO this winter, even though current North Atlantic SSTs are fairly similar to those from November 2011. Moreover, there was a moderate -QBO in November 2011, which supposedly promotes blocking, just like we have now. No disrespect intended for any meteorologist here, of course. We didn't have a weak El Nino in November 2011...El Nino causes ozone transport which warms the stratosphere and makes blocking more likely. If you look at other weak Nino winters like 63-64, 76-77, 77-78, etc, most of them had high latitude blocking. Also, we have more of a +PDO configuration in the Pacific, which means that there's more of a chance for a Pacific ridge/+PNA. This should also keep heights high over AK and allow cold air to filter into Canada and the Northern Tier. I think there's more confidence in a favorable Pacific this winter than a favorable Atlantic, though both may be promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 I'm already near a third of my seasonal average and it's not even December. Not sure why folks are worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyLovesSnow Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Just wanted to wish everyone on this site a happy Thanksgiving. Hope you enjoyed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 We didn't have a weak El Nino in November 2011...El Nino causes ozone transport which warms the stratosphere and makes blocking more likely. If you look at other weak Nino winters like 63-64, 76-77, 77-78, etc, most of them had high latitude blocking. Also, we have more of a +PDO configuration in the Pacific, which means that there's more of a chance for a Pacific ridge/+PNA. This should also keep heights high over AK and allow cold air to filter into Canada and the Northern Tier. I think there's more confidence in a favorable Pacific this winter than a favorable Atlantic, though both may be promising. Thank you for the reassuring words and reasoning. It just amazes me that we were able to muster out a great winter last year without any El Nino, pronounced +PNA and -NAO. I hope this applies to this upcoming winter as well, if we do not have any luck with the -NAO. At least this year we should have the El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 0z GFS has hints of a colder and stormier pattern by mid December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 December 1963 was one of the colder el nino Decembers...It had above average snowfall despite less precipitation than average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Ahh. The smell of snow in the air this morning on the coast where non fell as NW winds coming over snow cover just to our west rub it in for another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 28, 2014 Author Share Posted November 28, 2014 When tracking season snowfall totals how is a trace added in? For example I had 3.25" on Wednesday and a trace yesterday, is the season total 3.25"? 3.35"? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 When tracking season snowfall totals how is a trace added in? For example I had 3.25" on Wednesday and a trace yesterday, is the season total 3.25"? 3.35"? Thanks Depends how badly you want that extra tenth of an inch. For my own personal records, I enter .1" if there's any coating whatsoever. It's probably true if you account for melting, compacting, sublimation, blowing, etc. (or at least that's what I tell myself). Officially, though, I believe a trace of frozen precipitation is anything below 0.1", but as that is the smallest allowed increment for snow records, it shouldn't count toward any quantifiable accumulations. Since you make use of the hundredths place, though, it's your call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 It was right around this time back in November 2011 when the posters in this entire forum began cancelling winter left and right based on the death Alaskan vortex, +NAO and raging +AO/+EPO. Hell, even AccuWeather's Henry Margusity began to poo-poo the upcoming winter back then. That winter just brings shivers down my spine, and not in a good way. Currently, I am re-reading the bullish 2011-2012 winter outlooks from various AmericanWx meteorologists that were made in October 2011. It's funny when you look at the one common image that they used to support their methodology for their cold and snowy winter forecasts: the November Atlantic SST anomalies snapshot which "should" imply a moderate-strong -NAO for the overall winter. That image from November 2011, at least on the Atlantic side, looks fairly similar to November 2014 with regards to the SST anomalies. If one looks back at the SST anomalies on November 2010, the waters just south of Greenland were so much warmer than the above mentioned cases and we know how that winter of 2010-2011 played out. So where am I going with this? I would like to know the source of such confidence elicited from most meteorologists in here that there will be at least a moderate -NAO this winter, even though current North Atlantic SSTs are fairly similar to those from November 2011. Moreover, there was a moderate -QBO in November 2011, which supposedly promotes blocking, just like we have now. No disrespect intended for any meteorologist here, of course. Its best to just ignore all the "noise" around here - and that includes whatever type of tag you see below their screen name. Also it amazes me when I hear of moderators that delete posts of us hobbyists with little formal MET training just because they post their own opinions of the weather and what they think might happen down the road and it doesn't agree with the current thinking of the METS - or they are harrased by the few know it alls in this forum - well just for your info - Upton which includes METS with all sorts of degrees and experience in forecasting really busted during this past storm especially in the immediate NYC metro area and not the first time this has happened - think about that for a while....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 December 1963 was one of the colder el nino Decembers...It had above average snowfall despite less precipitation than average... Same period viewed as the 500mb Anomaly. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.hour.pl?var=Geopotential+Height&level=500mb&iy[1]=&im[1]=&id[1]=&ih[1]=&iy[2]=&im[2]=&id[2]=&ih[2]=&iy[3]=&im[3]=&id[3]=&ih[3]=&iy[4]=&im[4]=&id[4]=&ih[4]=&iy[5]=&im[5]=&id[5]=&ih[5]=&iy[6]=&im[6]=&id[6]=&ih[6]=&iy[7]=&im[7]=&id[7]=&ih[7]=&iy[8]=&im[8]=&id[8]=&ih[8]=&iy[9]=&im[9]=&id[9]=&ih[9]=&iy[10]=&im[10]=&id[10]=&ih[10]=&iy[11]=&im[11]=&id[11]=&ih[11]=&iy[12]=&im[12]=&id[12]=&ih[12]=&iy[13]=&im[13]=&id[13]=&ih[13]=&iy[14]=&im[14]=&id[14]=&ih[14]=&iy[15]=&im[15]=&id[15]=&ih[15]=&iy[16]=&im[16]=&id[16]=&ih[16]=&iy[17]=&im[17]=&id[17]=&ih[17]=&iy[18]=&im[18]=&id[18]=&ih[18]=&iy[19]=&im[19]=&id[19]=&ih[19]=&iy[20]=&im[20]=&id[20]=&ih[20]=&monr1=12&dayr1=1&hour1=0&monr2=12&dayr2=31&hour2=12&iyr[1]=1963&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&scal_vect=4&proj=Northern+Hemisphere&xlat1=20&xlat2=50&xlon1=120&xlon2=60&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 When tracking season snowfall totals how is a trace added in? For example I had 3.25" on Wednesday and a trace yesterday, is the season total 3.25"? 3.35"? Thanks its not counted at all - example is Upton received 0.2 inches Wednesday and they had a trace previous to that one and they have .02 for the season total http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.NYC.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 This new emoticon might prove useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 When tracking season snowfall totals how is a trace added in? For example I had 3.3" on Wednesday and a trace yesterday, is the season total 3.3"? 3.4"? Thanks Fixed it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 This new emoticon might prove useful. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 This new emoticon might prove useful. Let's hope the cold/blocky pattern locks in by mid December or we'll be seeing this emoticon rearing its ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Let's hope the cold/blocky pattern locks in by mid December or we'll be seeing this emoticon rearing its ugly head. Typhoon is going to develop east of the Phillipines and then recurve later - this is what locks us in this time around https://twitter.com/wxnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Our only hope is a typhoon at 192 hours out. We're doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Uh, oh. Boy, does this sound familiar. I just got word that the 12z Euro and GFS 11-15 day 850 mean temp anomaly just roasts Canada which would cause the snow pack to shrink greatly. So, North America essentially gets devoid of cold air towards mid-month. Shades of December 2011, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Uh, oh. Boy, does this sound familiar. I just got word that the 12z Euro and GFS 11-15 day 850 mean temp anomaly just roasts Canada which would cause the snow pack to shrink greatly. So, North America essentially gets devoid of cold air towards mid-month. Shades of December 2011, for sure. Bottles and bottles of Xanax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Uh, oh. Boy, does this sound familiar. I just got word that the 12z Euro and GFS 11-15 day 850 mean temp anomaly just roasts Canada which would cause the snow pack to shrink greatly. So, North America essentially gets devoid of cold air towards mid-month. Shades of December 2011, for sure. Zomg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Looks like parts of Mid-Atlantic get some mood snow with a brief cold shot early this week from the gfs. Looks like things aren't going to plan with the NAO at least. No signs of it ever going negative and that's huge in a Nino because there's no way we're gonna have the same severe -EPO like last winter to bail us out this time. We should still get plenty of brief cold shots but the chances for snows will be few and far between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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