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Fall 2014 Banter Thread

IsentropicLift

By IsentropicLift,
in New York City Metro

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Looks like parts of Mid-Atlantic get some mood snow with a brief cold shot early this week from the gfs.

Looks like things aren't going to plan with the NAO at least. No signs of it ever going negative and that's huge in a Nino because there's no way we're gonna have the same severe -EPO like last winter to bail us out this time.

We should still get plenty of brief cold shots but the chances for snows will be few and far between.

Then why did you predict this in the contest ? Contest is closed can't modify it BTW

 

 

KNYC

 

Nov - 5"

Dec -- 15"

Jan -- 15"

Feb -- 25"

Mar -- 10"

 

 

Total -- 70"

 

Seeing snow chances in November already and I think we'll finally get a March to deliver so gonna go all out for once. 

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

Then why did you predict this in the contest ? Contest is closed can't modify it BTW

 

 

KNYC

 

Nov - 5"

Dec -- 15"

Jan -- 15"

Feb -- 25"

Mar -- 10"

 

 

Total -- 70"

 

Seeing snow chances in November already and I think we'll finally get a March to deliver so gonna go all out for once. 

I felt more confident a couple weeks ago but I'm clearly overreaching here as many who predicted some of these totals are.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Uh, oh. Boy, does this sound familiar. I just got word that the 12z Euro and GFS 11-15 day 850 mean temp anomaly just roasts Canada which would cause the snow pack to shrink greatly.

 

Its fairly difficult to "roast the snowpack" in Canada during the month of December to sufficiently to produce bare ground...even in the southern extremities of that country...daylight is no more than 8 eight hours long this time of year...and the angular elevation of the sun is seldom greater than 25 degrees above the horizon at noon

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Hailstorm

Hailstorm

Posted
Posted

This thread while banter is way to much to handle. You have a thread started by earthlight and backed by numerous good posters and red taggers yet everyone is so worried. Thinking of not even reading these boards til the 15 th

I am well aware of those threads by the skilled meteorologists and I very much respect their input and knowledge. I just would like a red tagger or two to counter the points I have made in the past two pages of this thread.

 

Vividly, if the long-range Euro ensembles keep on pointing to this same +EPO, +NAO and unfavorable MJO regime, we need to bring out the December 2011 analog for the upcoming December.

 

To add insult to injury, the previous Euro weeklies from a couple of days ago predicted Week 3 and 4 to be favorable for winter weather; however, the weekly that just came out today delayed the onset of cold until Week 4. This sounds very similar to December 2011 when all the models kept on pushing back the cold.

 

And we all know how some people in this forum got fooled in November 2011 about a possible SSW which was supported by the models for weeks. Well, that SSW materialized in the wrong side of the globe and did not translate to our side. What is preventing the same debacle from happening again this year?

 

I strongly believe that we need to get below-normal temp-wise by December 7 just like last year if we would like to see an above-normal snowfall winter. And that stretch almost certainly has to entail 7 consecutive days of temps not getting out of the 30s for highs, ala December 2013. It seems if NYC does not have a 7-day stretch of high temps staying in the 30s for a time in December, an above-normal snowfall winter immediately gets thrown off the table. This is all evident from the December NYC temp calendar since 2002.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2013/12/8/MonthlyHistory.html?MR=1 

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

I am well aware of those threads by the skilled meteorologists and I very much respect their input and knowledge. I just would like a red tagger or two to counter the points I have made in the past two pages of this thread.

 

Vividly, if the long-range Euro ensembles keep on pointing to this same +EPO, +NAO and unfavorable MJO regime, we need to bring out the December 2011 analog for the upcoming December.

 

To add insult to injury, the previous Euro weeklies from a couple of days ago predicted Week 3 and 4 to be favorable for winter weather; however, the weekly that just came out today delayed the onset of cold until Week 4. This sounds very similar to December 2011 when all the models kept on pushing back the cold.

 

And we all know how some people in this forum got fooled in November 2011 about a possible SSW which was supported by the models for weeks. Well, that SSW materialized in the wrong side of the globe and did not translate to our side. What is preventing the same debacle from happening again this year?

 

But I thought you were "almost certain that the first week of December will feature high temps not getting above 34*F for six consecutive days." *frowns*

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Key word was almost certain at that time.

 

I was just kidding around with you...everyone makes predictions that don't come to pass...everyone but me, of course...

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted

Its fairly difficult to "roast the snowpack" in Canada during the month of December to sufficiently to produce bare ground...even in the southern extremities of that country...daylight is no more than 8 eight hours long this time of year...and the angular elevation of the sun is seldom greater than 25 degrees above the horizon at noon

The only was I can see it happening is if we had a mega niño and the subtropical get and associated warmth were to blast directly ashore up there and spread east.

Left to itself the kind of insolation you get north of 50 in December will actually create it's own cold

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

People need to relax. Long range data could change in a heartbeat.

 

No I disagree most vehemently...time is not a series of highways lanes...and by changing lanes you consequently can alter futures...fate & destiny are unchangeable...and the most strenuous efforts and hopes cannot alter the fact that this will be a below average snow season in NYC.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

No I disagree most vehemently...time is not a series of highways lanes...and by changing lanes you consequently can alter futures...fate & destiny are unchangeable...and the most strenuous efforts and hopes cannot alter the fact that this will be a below average snow season in NYC.

 

There's got to be an answer...

Don't look for it Taylor...you may not like what you find.

What will he find out there Doctor?

His destiny...

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TonyLovesSnow

TonyLovesSnow

Posted
Posted

No I disagree most vehemently...time is not a series of highways lanes...and by changing lanes you consequently can alter futures...fate & destiny are unchangeable...and the most strenuous efforts and hopes cannot alter the fact that this will be a below average snow season in NYC.

honestly I doubt that. It's definitely not going to be as cold as last year IMO, I still think we'll manage an above average snowfall for Central Park. I still think December will feature below average. I still think our teleconnections will be fairly favorable after the first 10 days of December will major blocking developing from around winter solstice to about February 15th. I noticed models have been doing fairly good with tracks and intensities of low pressures, but have been way off with the temperatures. This is why the relaxation period won't last longer than 10 days. Even than you'll have shots of cooler air that could sneak in a wave during the nighttime hours.
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TonyLovesSnow

TonyLovesSnow

Posted
Posted

Never, never doubt what no one is sure about...

look your also guessing as I am. So technically were both right

Edit: I just wish your wrong not to prove you wrong I just need more snow in my life. It's my passion and it's not like I chose it. There are other things that I'm way more talented than predicting weather but a snowstorm is just beyond that. I'm sure your a. :weenie: yourself.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

look your also guessing as I am. So technically were both right

 

Your attempts to deconstruct my nonsense are admirable *smiles*

 

Its been like almost 10 months since there was a decent snowfall at Central Park...that is quite a spell.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

i especially admire your intellectuality. I think your an excellent investment for this web site!

 

Thank you. Unfortunately, their "investment in me" has not increased my bank balance.  Its still like the temperature in Manitoba...just below zero.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

hahahhhaah do you have any meteorology background, or it's just a nice hobby?

 

It *is* a nice hobby, isn't it? *gazes demurely*

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