forkyfork Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 that has been pretty relentless so far this spring and early summer. It has really muted what could have been some really warm periods for the northeast looks frigid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 looks frigid It looks seasonable. Just because it's not a heat wave doesn't mean that it has to be 50's and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 You'd think that people would want that trough near the east coast. It's keeping most of the rain to our west and has brought pleasant conditions to this area. If the heat comes east, so will the convection. People like convection - it is responsible for some of the most exciting phenomena in the atmosphere. Not all of us can get off on nimbostratus and hours of -RA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 years like 1972 and 1982 that had no 90's until July made up for it in the second half...`1982 had 11 90 degree days in a 20 day period...(only 90's of the year) while 1972 saw nine days over 90 between the 15th and 25th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 People like convection - it is responsible for some of the most exciting phenomena in the atmosphere. Not all of us can get off on nimbostratus and hours of -RA Do people like days and days of heavy rain and numerous washouts while they are trying to vacation and BBQ? Because that is what's going to happen. Just look at how above normal the mid-west and Ohio Valley are as compared to the northeast which is below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 The pattern for the first half of July looks above normal temp wise overall, with periodic FROPAS in the NWLY flow aloft. This would potentially set-up a conducive pattern for frequent convection and heat/humidity. Remember, averages will be in the mid 80s by the beginning of July, so even slightly above normal in July is quite hot. The mean mid level ridge axis should be positioned in the Mid-west/MS valley with transient extensions into the East over the next 15 days. There will be some weakness for troughs to swing through New England and shave back the heat from time to time. But like I said, overall, temperatures look to average warmer than normal for the July 1st-15th period. High latitude blocking should be weak/minimal through the upcoming 2 weeks which will allow higher heights to build W-E across the CONUS for early July. Ring of fire type convection is possible from the Lakes into the Northeast. One can see the higher than normal heights in the East for early July, but due to the placement of the ridge in the Mid-west, there will be room for FROPAS on a NWLY flow occasionally. This has the potential to be a much more interesting pattern than June, in terms of warmth and convection. I don't think we're looking at any prolonged heat waves, but 3 consecutive days of 90F is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 looks frigid when did i ever say it has been cold?? It has been very nice, and even slightly above normal. I was talking strictly about the heat aspect. We have already seen multiple times this year where impressive heat has been modeled in the long range and it gets muted as we get closer. The same thing seems to be happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 when did i ever say it has been cold?? It has been very nice, and even slightly above normal. I was talking strictly about the heat aspect. We have already seen multiple times this year where impressive heat has been modeled in the long range and it gets muted as we get closer. The same thing seems to be happening now. If and when the ridge axis slips east and we end up in a ring of fire where it pours every afternoon this place is going to be unberable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Fat chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Fat chance What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 If and when the ridge axis slips east and we end up in a ring of fire where it pours every afternoon this place is going to be unberable. this weather has been great honestly. We have had a few hot days, but mainly nice comfortable days. I would not be a fan of extreme heat that had a chance to ruin all outdoor activities every afternoon. This weather is great for people on vacation and enjoying outdoor activities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 this weather has been great honestly. We have had a few hot days, but mainly nice comfortable days. I would not be a fan of extreme heat that had a chance to ruin all outdoor activities every afternoon. This weather is great for people on vacation and enjoying outdoor activities People that think the pattern would be dry if the ridge slipped east are misinformed. Not in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 24, 2014 Author Share Posted June 24, 2014 There is no guarantee that the blocking will go away to the point of allowing the heat to make it into our area for an extended period in July - have to just wait and see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif The pattern for the first half of July looks above normal temp wise overall, with periodic FROPAS in the NWLY flow aloft. This would potentially set-up a conducive pattern for frequent convection and heat/humidity. Remember, averages will be in the mid 80s by the beginning of July, so even slightly above normal in July is quite hot. The mean mid level ridge axis should be positioned in the Mid-west/MS valley with transient extensions into the East over the next 15 days. There will be some weakness for troughs to swing through New England and shave back the heat from time to time. But like I said, overall, temperatures look to average warmer than normal for the July 1st-15th period. High latitude blocking should be weak/minimal through the upcoming 2 weeks which will allow higher heights to build W-E across the CONUS for early July. Ring of fire type convection is possible from the Lakes into the Northeast. One can see the higher than normal heights in the East for early July, but due to the placement of the ridge in the Mid-west, there will be room for FROPAS on a NWLY flow occasionally. This has the potential to be a much more interesting pattern than June, in terms of warmth and convection. I don't think we're looking at any prolonged heat waves, but 3 consecutive days of 90F is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 What are you talking about? Chamber of crap, Forky remains my favorite poster in this thread. He is someone who embraces all 4 seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 If and when the ridge axis slips east and we end up in a ring of fire where it pours every afternoon this place is going to be unberable. The CFSV2 isn`t buying it yet . Normal at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Models show 850mb temps 18-21C and 582dm heights early next week, which would typically support middle to upper 90s for highs. But don't mix out dew points around 75. So they show high temps closer to 90. That will be underdone, if we see more mixing. The Euro ensembles also build the ridge for the second week of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Chamber of crap, Forky remains my favorite poster in this thread. He is someone who embraces all 4 seasons. With the heat will also come his cousins, humidit, convection and rain. Just ask some of the Ohio Valley or Mid-Atlantic posters what that ridge has done for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Why no one is talking about the only (tomorrow) rain we are going to have for the next 10 days. Lol wow it'd boring.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Why no one is talking about the only (tomorrow) rain we are going to have for the next 10 days. Lol wow it'd boring.. Because people would rather talk about the 240hr Euro ensemble mean showing another phantom heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 The frontal passage has slowed down 6-12 hours from yesterday and instead of getting the line apporaching between 18z and 00z it now comes through between 00z and 06z or even later. Looks like nothing more than scattered showers at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 There is no guarantee that the blocking will go away to the point of allowing the heat to make it into our area for an extended period in July - have to just wait and see http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif The NAO should be near neutral in early July. The ECWMF ensembles have it slightly positive. The NAO modality itself is fairly insignificant anyway at this time of year in terms of temperatures in our area. We've seen major heat waves with both a +NAO and -NAO during the July-August period. Wavelengths are much different now, so the "same" forcing in one particular season will have different results in another season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 The JMA weeklies have a burgeoning mid level ridge across the Lakes/Northeast for the end of June/early July period. We're liable to get some heat in that 30th-3rd time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 that has been pretty relentless so far this spring and early summer. It has really muted what could have been some really warm periods for the northeast The theme of this pattern so far has been above normal temperatures with muted extreme heat. Notice how the recent years extreme 100 degree heat during July at Newark was proceeded by mid to upper 90's in June which been lacking so far. The key to watch next week is if the above normal temps are accompanied by more convection and weak troughing near and just off the coast in the means limiting the heat potential at Newark to low to mid 90's. Real heat at Newark in July has been defined by temperatures soaring to over 100 degrees. The June signal is that we wont make it there again this year. But we'll see how it goes. Newark MAX T........June....July 2014...........................92......? 2013...........................96....101 2012...........................99....104 2011..........................102...108 2010..........................98......103 2009..........................89......91 2008..........................99......98 2007..........................96......97 2006..........................95......98 2005..........................97......100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 The lack of any forky posts says it all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 The 12z GGEM has numerous thunderstorms over the area tomorrow well out ahead of the main line. That would be a nice treat as the main slug of convection looks to be tracking well north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 We don't need upper 90s to 100s to feel extreme heat. I actually think upper 80s to mid 90s with very high dews feels even worse than 100 with much lower dews. The humidity is truly the nightmare for me in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 The theme of this pattern so far has been above normal temperatures with muted extreme heat. Temperatures have been seasonable so far. LaGuardia & Newark are close to +0.0 DFN for June. LGA is +0.1 for June and Newark is +0.6. When one speaks of above normal temperatures (or below normal)...the departure usually has to be greater than 1.0 degrees in order to be statistically significant, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Temperatures have been seasonable so far. LaGuardia & Newark are close to +0.0 DFN for June. LGA is +0.1 for June and Newark is +0.6. When one speaks of above normal temperatures (or below normal)...the departure usually has to be greater than 1.0 degrees in order to be statistically significant, IMO. It may end up almost exactly normal temp and precip wise for many reporting stations barring a deluge tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 So this weather has been about perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 So this weather has been about perfect. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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