IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 The Euro pushes 90 next Tuesday as well, but you have to go down to the Carolinas for a reading of 95 or above. That ULL is stuck off the east coast and as long as that happens it will keep any big heat at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 It's not completely evident on the Euro op yet but you can start to see why so many of the Euro ensemble members are juiced up next week. Seems like just a matter of time before the shoe drops and the heat ridge is replaced by a pesky ULL that has been the same story all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Sounds warm on the euro but nothing crazy for the time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 the 12z euro is coming in and it's hotupper 80's are hot in July? Times are tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 you are like metsfan with a 276hr prog showing a snowstormthe board needs some balance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 it's also had ens support for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 you are like metsfan with a 276hr prog showing a snowstormwe should bump these posts of his in the winter when he's complaing about people humping cold snowy solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 it's also had ens support for days The GEFS like 80's, not even noteworthy in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 We've had plenty of modeled extreme patterns over the past year that have moderated or completely fizzled as we get inside of 120 hours. Whether it be snow, rain, cold or heat it's been the same story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 For you, COC might mean "Chamber of Crap" ... get it now? cone of cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 the 12z euro is coming in and it's hot A little trolling for the cold and snow lovers who hate heat. Yes upper 80s to 90 are hot, I will be complaining so congrats on your wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 A little trolling for the cold and snow lovers who hate heat. Yes upper 80s to 90 are hot, I will be complaining so congrats on your wish. If you can't handle upper 80's or low 90's in July then you probably should move to NNE or Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 This weather has been pretty unbelievable. Did we get transported to Southern California all of a sudden? It's been the best, great timing. I can't complain about this, so what if it's been relatively quiet and boring to some. It hasn't felt like we've been above normal this month, same with May, it really puts 2009 into perspective of how bad it really was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 The 12z Euro lingers the ULL just offshore, next week. Keeping low-level winds more southerly near the coast. Once the ULL leaves or rots away, winds turn more westerly and it becomes a furnace here. This can happen in one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Nothing really unbelievable about it. NYC's +0.9 for temperatures so far this month, and we've seen plenty of mostly cloudy days during the work weeks. It's just that the beautiful weekends this month might skew people's thinking. Temperature wise, this is more or less how summer on average progresses. Our big heat (for 2+ consecutive days) doesn't generally get going until the end of June/beginning of July. Fair enough. I feel like the humidity has been held at bay for now. Saranac Lake this morning was 37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 For you, COC might mean "Chamber of Crap" ... get it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 This is the warmest panel on the 12z ECMWF and as you can see nobody even breaks 93F. Come talk to me when we have a legitimate shot at 95 or above for 3 days plus inside of 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 The 12z Euro lingers the ULL just offshore, next week. Keeping low-level winds more southerly near the coast. Once the ULL leaves or rots away, winds turn more westerly and it becomes a furnace here. This can happen in one day.if it drifts far enough south the heat will roll over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 if it drifts far enough south the heat will roll over it And if it drifts far enough west it will be clouds, rain and below normal temps. And you make fun of others for wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 And if it drifts far enough west it will be clouds, rain and below normal temps. And you make fun of others for wishcasting. Hopefully that outcome only happens when you have Yankees game plans or other outdoor activities scheduled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Hopefully that outcome only happens when you have Yankees game plans or other outdoor activities scheduled. Haven't you heard? I have the ability to control the weather just by posting day 9 Euro maps that show my desirable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 This is the warmest panel on the 12z ECMWF and as you can see nobody even breaks 93F. Come talk to me when we have a legitimate shot at 95 or above for 3 days plus inside of 120 hours. ecmwf_t2max_nyc_35.png Holy seabreeze front on that panel. 70 on the beaches, 90 at Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Holy seabreeze front on that panel. 70 on the beaches, 90 at Newark. Those low resolution of those maps always exaggerate the sea breezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 we should bump these posts of his in the winter when he's complaing about people humping cold snowy solutions This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Those low resolution of those maps always exaggerate the sea breezes. That was a high res map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 The 12z Euro Ensemble mean lingers the troughing near the coast for the whole run and the ridge can never build in enough for any really impressive heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Those low resolution of those maps always exaggerate the sea breezes. If that's the Euro it's run using 4DVAR. The map however may be capturing the data incorrectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Fair enough. I feel like the humidity has been held at bay for now. Saranac Lake this morning was 37F. Yeah I will agree that the dew points have been very tolerable especially in comparison to the past few years. That's probably why it feels so dry. For beach/pool type activities, I'd rather have the majority of days on the humid side. So I'm hoping we don't continue the pattern of low dews overall. Occasionally shots of cool are nice in July/August, but I'm not a fan of summers dominated by cool/dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 23, 2014 Author Share Posted June 23, 2014 Haven't you heard? I have the ability to control the weather just by posting day 9 Euro maps that show my desirable outcome. 9 day model maps always work out - especially when the heat has been showing up on them long range many times the last month or more - thats why we have had so many 90 degree days so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 That was a high res map Huh? I don't see what's funny. You clearly misinterpreted my post. Sure it's the Hi-res Euro on WB, still low-res for the temp profile (13.91km resolution on WB). That's a terrible resolution to use temp profile right along the coast, just look at how smoothed the temp contours are. 4km or better is much more efficient to use for sea breezes and temp forecasting right along the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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