bluewave Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 I had mentioned here a few times that I thought we would have our first widespread heatwave in the metro before July 10th BUT the chances of that are diminishing because we can't break out of the same basic pattern we have been in the last few months which does not allow the heat to make it into our area from the southwest for any extended period of time http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Here is July 2009 at EWR - http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2009/7/1/MonthlyHistory.html The June to July big heat signal from recent years at Newark isn't there this year. We come in warmer than 2009 in the means, but not as warm as the other recent years. So far this June is much warmer than 2009 as NYC is +1.0 and June 2009 was -3.7. Newark MAX T........June....July 2014...........................92......? 2013...........................96....101 2012...........................99....104 2011..........................102...108 2010..........................98......103 2009..........................89......91 2008..........................99......98 2007..........................96......97 2006..........................95......98 2005..........................97......100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 While not completely committing to it yet WPC seems to think that the end of next week could be a wet one with some sort of tropical low or hybrid off the Carolina coast next Friday and moisture surging north along the front. As you can see they currently depict the front to be progressive enough to salvage Friday. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 The heat talk and 90's is turning into a big bust. You might get a day or two in the upper 80's before the 4th and that's about it. From the 4th through the holiday weekend looks mighty cool from the middle of the nation to the mid Atlactic and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 When was the last time that the NHC popped a lemon well inland? They are still going 20% chance of development in the 48-120hr outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 The phantom storm was gone on the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 The phantom storm was gone on the 0z Euro. It still has a good amount of ensemble support and the NHC remains somewhat interested. It's not a phantom storm. They are currently tracking it over land. It will be offshore by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 It still has a good amount of ensemble support and the NHC remains somewhat interested. It's not a phantom storm. They are currently tracking it over land. It will be offshore by this weekend. Timing is critical with this low off the southeast coast next week - there is the possiblity this storm gets involved with the pre -frontal passage mid - to late next week - that could lead to some problems around here............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Timing is critical with this low off the southeast coast next week - there is the possiblity this storm gets involved with the pre -frontal passage mid - to late next week - that could lead to some problems around here............. The less reliable guidance still wants to take this southwest towards Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 The less reliable guidance still wants to take this southwest towards Florida. can you post some links for this guidance ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 can you post some links for this guidance ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 The 12z GFS also takes this south and then over Florida as a weak area of low pressure. Still it has a closed low at hour 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 The 12z GFS also takes this south and then over Florida as a weak area of low pressure. Still it has a closed low at hour 66. reason being is that it is caught in the circulation around that big HP to the northeast or it is preventing it from moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Please take all the global warming talk to the Climate Change forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 The storm is back on the Euro. Closed circulation center by 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Tremendous amount of spread today regarding any development off the southeast coast. The 12z GFS keeps the system very weak and drifts it WSW into the Florida east coast by early next week. The 12z GGEM has the system meander off the coast through Tuesday before finally gettting punted OTS by the trough moving off the east coast. The 12z ECMWF has the low remaining nearly stationary through at least Tuesday. Another option is that the trough swining through the lakes misses. The Euro does have some interaction between the front and the low for the middle of next week. The combination helps to send a surge of higher dews northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 The trough misses the southeast low on the 12z ECMWF. Still a completely seperate entity at 120hrs. Albeit weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 I let the other AGW talk slide since it was mostly civil with good discussion. Now that it's mainly one-liners and bashing, I'm deleting those posts. We have a CC sub-forum for a reason. Use it please. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Oh too bad looking like a miss poor you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 What a mess on the Euro. Looks like convective feedback issues after day 5. It spins up a convective bullseye which surges north and then sends a seperate piece southwest and eventually into Florida at 198 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Oh too bad looking like a miss poor you How's that heat wave looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Wasn't a banter thread created for this crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Severe bust for those that bought into the heat for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Well Forky promised big heat so i will be waiting for it though I don't believe upper 70s to low 80s for the 4th of July weekend would be considered "big heat". Please correct me if I'm wrong. I thought the Euro and it's ensembles said huge heat wave with massive ridge right, they can't be wrong at 10+ days out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Great sunset tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Well we may hit 90 in the lucky spots one day next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Well we may hit 90 in the lucky spots one day next week I would think so, it will be July after all. You know it's been lacking in the heat department when we are grasping at the chance of a couple of 90F degree days in July. EWR came close yesterday so no doubt they see at least 2 days of low 90s prior to the frontal passage next week pending any convective debris of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 I would think so, it will be July after all. You know it's been lacking in the heat department when we are grasping at the chance of a couple of 90F degree days in July. EWR came close yesterday so no doubt they see at least 2 days of low 90s prior to the frontal passage next week pending any convective debris of course. It's crazy I haven't hit 90 yet all year. In fact I barley need the AC with the cool sea breeze that keeps coming in around 2-3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 It's crazy I haven't hit 90 yet all year. In fact I barley need the AC with the cool sea breeze that keeps coming in around 2-3pm and there is no heat wave in sight - maybe a couple individual 90 degree days in selected locations between now and mid july - also July 4th looks sunny and warm right now as long as the front doesn't stall out or slow down which could still happen http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 Now up to 30 percent chance of development in 48 hours and 50 percent in 120 hours. Just named invest 91L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 Now up to 30 percent chance of development in 48 hours and 50 percent in 120 hours. Just named invest 91L. here is a link - this could be dragged north ahead of that front if it doesn't drift to far south first and we all know what could happen and July 4th is still not out of the woods yet in regards to rain http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ have to admit this is an unusual looking water vapor loop for this time of the year which is bringing us a top 10 day of the year today in the metro http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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