LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Wow, much drier here on the south shore. Only 0.14" last night. We got allot more in Nassau. Heaviest rain of the season for a few minutes. I don't have a gauge but it had to be .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 ecmwf_uv10m_neng_41.png Well I guess we should believe this too since the big heat the Euro showed at 10 days out has to be believed as well according to Forky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Well I guess we should believe this too since the big heat the Euro showed at 10 days out has to be believed as well according to Forky. Yup That Euro heat wave that was showing up 5 days ago is now a distant memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 ecmwf_uv10m_neng_41.png The Bermuda High is too far East, so in order for that baby to come ashore, we'd need something to pull it west. Don't see anything, so I'm not buying those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 The American Weather Forum has issued a *****MASSIVE WEENIE SUICIDE ALERT***** For the following..... OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOVERS This Alert is in effect until further notice! Details... The massive heat ridge advertised to traverse the continent during the upoming week has been bounced and replaced with a big, fat trough centered along the east coast. In addition, most global models are now developing a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone near the Carolina coast early next week and then track it up the coast or just offshore towards the 4th of July weekend. Please stay tuned to American Weather Forums for more updates on this developing situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Well you really don't need huge heat for things to feel uncomfortable outside, these past couple of days have been very humid and uncomfortable regardless of a lack of 95+ readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Well you really don't need huge heat for things to feel uncomfortable outside, these past couple of days have been very humid and uncomfortable regardless of a lack of 95+ readings. All we need is for the ridge to shift a hundred miles further west and the heat stays completely away and this little baby tracks right up the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 The American Weather Forum has issued a *****MASSIVE WEENIE SUICIDE ALERT***** For the following..... OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOVERS This Alert is in effect until further notice! Details... The massive heat ridge advertised to traverse the continent during the upoming week has been bounced and replaced with a big, fat trough centered along the east coast. In addition, most global models are now developing a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone near the Carolina coast early next week and then track it up the coast or just offshore towards the 4th of July weekend. Please stay tuned to American Weather Forums for more updates on this developing situation. It's likely a phantom storm. We've had plenty of false alarms like these before. In fact, Sandy is the only one of these I remember happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 It's likely a phantom storm. We've had plenty of false alarms like these before. In fact, Sandy is the only one of these I remember happening. No way. A 200+ hour Euro surface chart warrants ample discussion in at least two regional subforums and a couple TC forecasting threads for good measure. OTOH, I'd be down for some kind—any kind—of interesting weather. 0.3" of rain last night didn't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 That phantom storm on the Euro develops in the next 48 hours. Plus the NHC is acknowldeging it and so are the mets in the main forum. 000ABNT20 KNHC 261726TWOATTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:An area of low pressure could form and linger off of thesoutheastern coast of the United States by late this weekend orearly next week. Some development of this system is possible if itremains over water.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 The storm also has plenty of support on the 12z ECMWF individual ensembles. Looks like a prolific rain producer as the moisture associated with it surges northward and interacts with a stalled frontal boundray near the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 I think it's legit, that area off the SE coast is really the one area this season were conditions are favorable enough for any tropical/subtropical systems to develop. The SSTs are above normal along the east coast and it's the only area where shear is normal to below normal. A storm like Bob is also very plausible this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Regarding a more immediate threat, looks like some storms firing in central NY. 18z 4k NAM has them passing over the region between 7-9PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 I think it's legit, that area off the SE coast is really the one area this season were conditions are favorable enough for any tropical/subtropical systems to develop. The SSTs are above normal along the east coast and it's the only area where shear is normal to below normal. A storm like Bob is also very plausible this season. That area is not only in the typical sweet spot for July development but also in an area of relatively weak shear as compared to the Carribean and the rest of the tropics. It should remain in relatively weak stiring currents and in an area with above normal ocean heat content. Not to mention it should be developing right over the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 The storm also has plenty of support on the 12z ECMWF individual ensembles. Looks like a prolific rain producer as the moisture associated with it surges northward and interacts with a stalled frontal boundray near the east coast. The ensemble mean does have a frontal wave development just off the coast. We'll have to wait and see how close to the coast this ends up in later runs. Even if a little further east, we'll still see a cooler 4th with a NE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 The ensemble mean does have a frontal wave development just off the coast. We'll have to wait and see how close to the coast this ends up in later runs. get_legacy_plot-web248-20140626203817-6654-0211.gif If you take a look at the individuals I would say that about 40% have development. A possible outcome is that it sits off the Carolina coast for days in the weak stiring and sends waves of convection northward. Of course this has to happen while I'm going to be on vacation in Virgina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 If you take a look at the individuals I would say that about 40% have development. A possible outcome is that it sits off the Carolina coast for days in the weak stiring and sends waves of convection northward. Of course this has to happen while I'm going to be on vacation in Virgina. where in VA ? its a big state......VA Beach would be an ideal spot to monitor this situation - even a better place would be the outer banks of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 where in VA ? its a big state......VA Beach would be an ideal spot to monitor this situation - even a better place would be the outer banks of NC I'll be in Willamsburg. Going to do the Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Williamsburg thing with the GF. Also heading down to Norfolk to see a minor leauge baseball game. Torrential rain isn't exactly conducive for any of those activites. I guess I might get what I've been begging for and getting it with horrible timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 I'll be in Willamsburg. Going to do the Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, Williamsburg thing with the GF. Also heading down to Norfolk to see a minor leauge baseball game. Torrential rain isn't exactly conducive for any of those activites. I guess I might get what I've been begging for and getting it with horrible timing. I wouldn't worry about this thing making it inland just yet since development is just starting down there as this loop shows and the exact direction and intensity/coverage is still in question -BUT with all the bad luck the Jersey shore has had the last few years a wash out for the July 4th weekend from a strong offshore or very close to the shore storm that possibly could close the beaches would have a really negative economical impact http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 I wouldn't worry about this thing making it inland just yet since development is just starting down there as this loop shows and the exact direction and intensity/coverage is still in question http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif The ULL should prevent this from slipping eastward to quickly. I'm not worried yet but it looks wet even if we don't get true development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Every single 15z SREF ensemble member develops this by 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 If you take a look at the individuals I would say that about 40% have development. A possible outcome is that it sits off the Carolina coast for days in the weak stiring and sends waves of convection northward. Of course this has to happen while I'm going to be on vacation in Virgina. We have been pretty lucky with July 4th weather in the 2010's so far. I guess the best scenario would be that the front clears the coast and the heaviest rain falls offshore. Still to early to tell yet, but there could be NE to N flow in any event which would keeps temps near or even below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 Every single 15z SREF ensemble member develops this by 48 hours. also you can bet once the mainstream media gets hold of this storm possibility they will run with it up until its no longer a threat for the July 4th weekend - this was the weekend most of the coastal regions that were impacted by Sandy were counting on for a huge amount of $$$ from tourism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 also you can bet once the mainstream media gets hold of this storm possibility they will run with it up until its no longer a threat for the July 4th weekend - this was the weekend most of the coastal regions that were impacted by Sandy were counting on for a huge amount of $$$ from tourism This one has egg on the face written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 This is still a huge IF right now, and doesn't warrant more than occasional monitoring. The July 4th weekend is probably the biggest shore weekend of the year and any kind of monkey wrench in it would be very unfortunate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Great view of the cell here currently over West Milford. Looks to hit me dead on for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Great view of the cell here currently over West Milford. Looks to hit me dead on for once. I think it's moving to the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 I think it's moving to the southeastPicked up some rain here and cool convective clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Temps look comfortable for July 4th compared to recent years heat. The ensemble mean looks to clear the front through by fireworks time which would be good news if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 Temps look comfortable for July 4th compared to recent years heat. The ensemble mean looks to clear the front through by fireworks time which would be good news if it holds. get_legacy_plot-web249-20140627093033-26747-0342.gif D7.gif I had mentioned here a few times that I thought we would have our first widespread heatwave in the metro before July 10th BUT the chances of that are diminishing because we can't break out of the same basic pattern we have been in the last few months which does not allow the heat to make it into our area from the southwest for any extended period of time http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Here is July 2009 at EWR - http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2009/7/1/MonthlyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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