packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah, it did a little, but there was less spread in E NC, so less members were taking it inland. I'll take it. That track works for us. Yeah, I guess overall it hits the mark we want (unlike the RGEM). The 850 temps ticked west/warmer too. I think that we will go to sleet/snow mix for about 6 hours. Probably end up on the low totals that has been forecasted. I still can't believe how high the accumulations are that the NWS put out. They are so bullish, when they are alway conservative. Pretty high bust potential with mixing involved. At least the qpf will be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Are we inside the NAM's wheelhouse yet or do we have to wait until after the storm ends for that? --- Yeah, Pack, I didn't even look at the 850 line. I'm not sure how useful it is on an ensemble mean (or maybe I'm just a weenie, LOL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Beautiful track! Why don't you put more of this in the discussion thread instead of banter? EDIT: It actually ticked WEST of the 15z run. I have to get out of this negative thread. It's rubbing off on me! I compared it to the 9z SREF, not the 15z, and I thought it looks very close to the 21z, but the 21z is deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brysonwnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's all downhill. That just depends on your definition of "downhill." This Midwesterner is missing the big snows. But, I do love me some electricity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Are we inside the NAM's wheelhouse yet or do we have to wait until after the storm ends for that? It's been waffling so bad, I wouldn't take anything serious it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I compared it to the 9z SREF, not the 15z, and I thought it looks very close to the 21z, but the 21z is deeper. I like your optimism! Keep Dr. Jeckle in the discussion thread and save Mr. Hyde for the Burns thread. Is that what your going for? I'm going to ask you like CR does, are you ready to go ALL IN yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Has anyone seen Robert's snow map over at wxsouth? I'd love to know what he is showing for GSP, but it isn't on the free side so I can't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 0z NAM definitely isn't as sharp through 12 hours compared to the 18z at 18 hours, not sure what that means, it should mean weaker, but will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You are in for one hell of an Ice Storm Michelle, probably 1.25" worth of accretion, rates may be your saving grace rather than IP, but it is still going to be a get the candles out type deal. I am sorry. Yea.....I know....sigh....lol. On the flip side, if I see over an inch of ice it will be the most I can remember experiencing. I'll be able to add another extreme weather experience to my list Indeed really sucks for you guys. Seriously, stay safe. Hit me up on FB if you and whoever you got need a place to crash. Got a spare bedroom a few mattresses and a big couch. Thanks burger I've got my fingers crossed the power will be back on in a matter of days instead of weeks Good luck to you Michelle, good luck to anyone else in the ZR bullseye. Thank you Marietta I sure hope everyone is ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's been waffling so bad, I wouldn't take anything serious it shows. Ok, the Pack is winning. It's our night. East east east. Give me the Nam east. Set the tone for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CarlHill, on 11 Feb 2014 - 8:48 PM, said:Has anyone seen Robert's snow map over at wxsouth? I'd love to know what he is showing for GSP, but it isn't on the free side so I can't see it. Nobody is going to give away the paid info. Too much respect for Robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I like your optimism! Keep Dr. Jeckle in the discussion thread and save Mr. Hyde for the Burns thread. Is that what your going for? I'm going to ask you like CR does, are you ready to go ALL IN yet? LOL, I am all in for 2-3" of snow, with 0.25" of frzn, and some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Has every model not trended to the Euro and RGEM today? Showing it going through Southern Georgia and up between 95 and the shore line. Just really hard to bet against the EURO and its 97% accuracy, the Canadian and for the most part UK. You point being? Fact is euro at times this winter has been far from superb. Also from what I can tell... the 850s are colder and slightly south of the placement from what 12z showed. The SLP placement too... shows it running through southern LA. With the current trough on the map I showed a bit ago... all indications would leave me to believe the SLP goes south of Jacksonville, FL eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 WLOS TV 13 is in KAVL It's all downhill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't know, out through 18 it looks less sharp but the surface very much the same, crossing northern FL into the Atlantic. I think after 18 hours of the NAM is enough. Bring on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 To my stupid untrained eye, looks like the NAM is bringing the heavy frozen precip farther east by h24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Been at 34.6° for 4 hours. I don't like this game. EDIT: 34.5°!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nobody is going to give away the paid info. Too much respect for Robert. Was not asking for anyone to post his map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Assuming I can ask IMBY questions: What do you think will happen for Chapel Hill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Assuming I can ask IMBY questions: What do you think will happen for Chapel Hill? Well for starters, a 10 pt Duke win. As for weather, no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Been at 34.6° for 4 hours. I don't like this game. EDIT: 34.5°!! It's coming. I was stuck at 33º for several hours. Now I have a NE flow, rising barometer, 27º and the dew point is 21º. All of which has tricked my Vantage Pro II into forecasting, "mostly clear with little temperature change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well time for me to go to bed. Too much model watching for me. Hope the obvs in the morning look great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Shield of precip is farther east, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Now that the jv team has finished playing its time for the rgem to come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Now that the jv team has finished playing its time for the rgem to come in. Haha! Shut it Franklin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So did the Nam flip us to rain, Pack? Edit: NM. Just saw Falls' post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No cold rain for you, Cold Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Haha! Shut it Franklin! what did you have for dinner tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 When does the RGEM come out? I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM still looks like a good hit for RDU according to others. 4 to 8 inches of snow with ice, too. I could do without the ice but the runs still keep going a good hit of snow. The thing I don't get is why Fishel says only 1 to 4 inches of snow ow when all the models have showed 4 being on the low side, even with the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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