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February Medium/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr

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Great stats in here guys. Appreciate it. One thing that appears to want to set march apart from the last 6+ is the pv refuses to leave our side of.the planet and coldest anoms in the nh are modeled basically perfect.

Seeing all the burb events is encouraging. I would like to see dc proper put a good one in the books.

Everyone in Dale City is asking me about the polar vortex. How on earth do these ppl find out about it if they are not on this forum? I didnt believe in it so I never said anything about it.

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Oh, I'd be more than happy with 1 to 2 or 2 to 4.    As for the potential after that, I'd be glad to have the Euro have it on the map for the next 8 runs...don't care if it's not a perfect hit...actually, I'd rather it not be a perfect hit.

 

 

You got what you want on the Euro tonight...a fringe job, but its there next week. The modeling this winter has been pretty amazing.

 

 

I've been musing about the conference workshop with Ekster and modeling this winter might be at the top of the list. It's been a fascinating winter on that front.

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The 6z GFS is a little more interesting for next week. Something light on monday and then something  light with a little punch on Wednesday. Hard not to be a little interested in something measureable at some point next week, even if it is minor.

 

For those of you chasing fantasy storms, it has a cutter after next weekend and then at the end of the run something huge in the gulf in extreme fantasy land. On March 9.

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This is the most reasonable solution in my opinion

Just curious why you think a cutter is the most reasonable solution. We dont know the specifics of how this upcoming cold pattern will evolve. The Euro op has had 3 very different solutions over the past few runs wrt storm potential next weekend.

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Just curious why you think a cutter is the most reasonable solution. We dont know the specifics of how this upcoming cold pattern will evolve. The Euro op has had 3 very different solutions over the past few runs wrt storm potential next weekend.

I think the PV sets up further NW and with no blocking will allow the storm to cut

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I think the PV sets up further NW and with no blocking will allow the storm to cut

At this point it is no more than a wag to try to pinpoint the location/strength of these features. We are 8 days out. And there is some west based blocking showing up in the guidance. My focus is on next Tues-Wed, where we have possibly 2 threats, and one may  turn out to be legit. The following weekend potential could end up a total fail. I really don't care at this point.

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09-10 winter the models were much better in the long/medium range b/c of the insane -NAO we had in place so there was basically two options on the table then, up the coast or just OTS.  Now these shortwaves can cut, ride the apps, hug the coast or go OTS b/c it's all timing based.   The PV is our quasi block and it's not really entrenched as it's constantly fluctuating in where it sets up from run to run. I actually feel bad for the models this year (as if they were living breathing entities) b/c the atmosphere is a jumbled mess!

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Another possibility is based based on fluctuations in the NAO and some subtle changes in the PNA

the mid week threat may grow in size and the weekend threat is still too uncertain as to the placement of the PV.

 

Seems beyond the first week of March there may be signals for a phase change event, maybe what Ian mentioned, about the storm after the storm threat.  Once past this Saturday will be ever more interesting to track. I am going to take advantage

of the upper 50's on Saturday here and have a Frisbee match with my cousin, and maybe brush off the grill. 

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Euro ens lost the big signal for the weekend storm but they still have a signal and don't support the op. There is still support for cold precip event.

Ens also don't really support a big cutter on the heels. Mslp anoms look miller b'ish to me. I'm not worried about anything beyond 5 days or so because the pattern isn't stable enough to worry about definitive solutions.

Glad to see gaining support for wed. Could be a nice event

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There was no block on the last storm

There was a transient one. I tried to pull esrl re-analysis panels but the site is down. The PV itself can block and set up strong confluence as well. That's what we have to hope for with any storm going forward. Either good pv placement or a transient west based block. Since both are impossible to resolve definitively even 3-4 days out I'm not going to sweat anything next week until it becomes clear. Right now it's a mud puddle.

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There was no block on the last storm

Not only was there a west based bubble, I was able to detect it a week+ out. That, and I was also able to see the classic storm progression of its seemingly hidden presence. This setup is not quite that so expectations should be lowered and the potential for variability is up.

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Not only was there a west based bubble, I was able to detect it a week+ out. That, and I was also able to see the classic storm progression of its seemingly hidden presence. This setup is not quite that so expectations should be lowered and the potential for variability is up.

HM, any thoughts on the MJO going to phase 8? Seems like reliable ens guidance is all pointing that way in a week or so. Ens guidance is also converging on west coast ridging re-emerging around march 4-5th or so. It's in interesting look if split flow sets up. I can envision st moisture undercutting and joining the party along the gulf coast. It's way out in lala but the look is there nonetheless. Our window keeps looking like it has legs as days pass.

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