Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Canadian is the perfect storm in GA and Carolinas in my opinion. I used to draw such maps in Junior high, hoping one day that would really happen. For areas in the Piedmont of both Carolinas and southeast of Atlanta that missed out on big totals of Superstorm 93, this run would make up for it bigtime. It may be too extreme though, but it has had the hot hand on details imo, as well as NAM in certain situations, atleast setting trends. We'll see if Euro has all the pieces come together just right. When I saw all models holding on to Baffin Ridge so long, I suspected something big would erupt down south. We'll see though, its' all in the details. Honestly, you wouldn't want quite what the Canadian shows really, it would devastate communities worse than an actual icestorm, massive roof collapses and trees, etc. What a storm though, no matter how you cut it. If the canadian was right and the combo of the 2 storms would produce totals many would be talking about 50 years from now. I know right...try to forecast for some of this on tv..heheh CMC looks a bit colder again at 2m and 850...Dr no is up next. I think FFC is going to have to consider something for us down here as well. I wouldn't. I don't envy you or anyone else right now at the nws/tv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just putting this out there but climo heavily disagrees with the CMC regarding Atlanta. That would be historic for us. Climo disagrees with everything extreme. Their is a first for everything in weather as you well know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 HA! About as epic a look on a map inside 5 day you will probably see. good lord. ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 A 961 LP??? That's a snowcane off New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 good lord. ' Just beautiful how the vort wraps in negative tilt in exactly the right spot to nail so many areas at once. We never get this kind of setup, well maybe once in a quarter century. Its usually just north of this region and MidAtlantic that gets to have such a meteorological masterpiece occur right over them. And to think its only 3 days away from getting started or even less for some. Not a week. Seriously with all the models showing something down south, the public only has a couple days to prepare for a moderate Winter storm in the least. And historic at best. Truth could be in the middle, but we're due for something truly major I think, and this has the potential. You'd want to see this now, not a month from now when southern trees are budding. Still would mean a devastating hit to many livelihoods if this occurs. We'd be reeling for weeks I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 HA! About as epic a look on a map inside 5 day you will probably see. That's the truth. Hard to believe such an extreme solution but there is some model agreement of this thing blowing up. This is just...I have no words lol This doesn't even count the first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 If the Euro holds serve I'd expect watches to go up this evening. Wyff already talking this up as crippling to the upstate and surrounding areas. Good trends from all the models thus far gives me a lot of confidence in seeing warning criteria snowfall....finally! Keep up the great disco fellow weenies!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 hmmm. Not quite as cold as I thought it would be given the setup. It's clearly the warmest model aloft for both systems. It would be deformation zone sleet and freezing rain for many per ewall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 hmmm. Not quite as cold as I thought it would be given the setup. It's clearly the warmest model aloft for both systems. It would be deformation zone sleet and freezing rain for many per ewall maps. Not a surprise given it's the Canadian... It would definitely be cold enough in the mid levels with a storm bombing out of this nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Where can I get a snowfall accumulation map for the Canadian? This run is probably overdone, but I'd like to see what our ceiling is in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's not often that I stop by this forum but wow, looks like this thing could be massive for a lot of you NWS had better post lots of watches very soon... since I shudder to imagine anyone in the deep south getting 1" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not a surprise given it's the Canadian... It would definitely be cold enough in the mid levels with a storm bombing out of this nature. I would think so too. It's hard to believe there wouldn't be some dynamical cooling with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Where can I get a snowfall accumulation map for the Canadian? This run is probably overdone, but I'd like to see what our ceiling is in terms of snowfall. Meteocenter will have them, but theyre not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Where can I get a snowfall accumulation map for the Canadian? This run is probably overdone, but I'd like to see what our ceiling is in terms of snowfall. It's not out yet.. edit: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&type=SN〈=en&map=na change the run to 12z when it becomes available I'm sure someone will post a paid map though considering the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Where can I get a snowfall accumulation map for the Canadian? This run is probably overdone, but I'd like to see what our ceiling is in terms of snowfall. Iol I know this is banter, but we are between models so I'll risk it. You answered your own question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 if you look back at any wound up hecs type of system like the ggem is showing, there are many pockets of warm air in the mid-levels and even at the sfc that can get pushed inland due to the mid and low level east winds. THere would definitely be sleet and zr in this situation for anyone east of i77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 How far south will the frozen precip fall? Are we safe here in the low country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Phasing would be wonderful but I think we need to consider that the GFS has the more sane picture. just trying to take us(me) down to earth. If we go just with the GFS, I would not complain about five inches of snow(with temps in the 20s) it shows my back yard and would be happy for you guys SW of here. Total precip at hour 96. Like I said still a good hit for RDU just not a fabulous hit like shown to the SW. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_096_precip_p48.gif Looks Great for CLT! 3 - 6" in the Triangle. 2 - 4" maximum north of the Triangle into the southern VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Out to 18 on the GEM at the model center.. their grib files takes forever to process. That's why it's so slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Well give credit to Brad Nitz on Noon weather (WSB TV ATL) he stressed the event would NOT end at 1PM Tuesday, and would continue through Wednesday with a ZR event and Ice Storm (if the trend continues) stressed as a serious winter weather event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 if you look back at any wound up hecs type of system like the ggem is showing, there are many pockets of warm air in the mid-levels and even at the sfc that can get pushed inland due to the mid and low level east winds. THere would definitely be sleet and zr in this situation for anyone east of i77. I'm .3 of a mile west of 77...am I safe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 hmmm. Not quite as cold as I thought it would be given the setup. It's clearly the warmest model aloft for both systems. It would be deformation zone sleet and freezing rain for many per ewall maps. I was going to say the same thing. CMC should be colder with that look at 2m and 850. I think for temps, at least in cad areas for 2m, the NAM should be the front runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm .3 of a mile west of 77...am I safe? I guess I'm screwed then.. I'm a mile east of it. Now if I stay at work, then I'm good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 LOL, for RDU from CMC http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Raleigh&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us The image posted must be another run. It shows 30 mm of SN (1.2" QPF), 11 mm of IP, and 5 mm of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like the good doc is in que and ready to be released to the world. I know that all runs are important, but this should be super important with all the cooler weather trends today in the models for us in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 any word on the UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 any word on the UKIE? Looks to be a Canadianesque bomb: Winter Storm Watch up for N GA, including ATL. EDIT: Oops, that's been up since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I guess I'm screwed then.. I'm a mile east of it. Now if I stay at work, then I'm good! I'm .3 of a mile west of 77...am I safe? lol no snow for you guys sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Holy Canadian!!!!! That would be a storm of epic proportions and it is pretty darn close to 0z Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua in Charlotte Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I guess I'm screwed then.. I'm a mile east of it. Now if I stay at work, then I'm good! LOL - I'm 0.5 west so YAY for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.