NCSNOW Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Guess I can live with 25 inches even though DC would get 40. Biggest weenie run I have ever seen, not just inside 3 days but all time. Edit: mm, still a classic and you would need the yardstick to measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro not as wet with the first wave like 00z out to 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Guess I can live with 25 inches even though DC would get 40. Biggest weenie run I have ever seen, not just inside 3 days but all time. Its in mm... not inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 @60 low is getting cranked. You can see some moisture over N TX where 00z didn't have it. Looks like a phase may be happening soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 almost 5 degrees colder at 2m at hour 54 this run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What is a PL event? Sleet. And I agree. This is looking like a largely IP event like 2/1979 and 1/1988 for ATL-AHN. The 850's of mainly +1 to +3 support as per climo. Also, I think there will likely be some snow early. The threat of a major ZR there is dropping imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Thank you! Do you all have the hr72 by chance? Here it is. Precip is blossoming and it's about to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 @72 this looks good. 850's colder than 00z for many. Moisture is starting to move up into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Cleared for take off at hr72. 2m again colder in GA. edit...EURO is also colder at 850 Has my 850's at 5 now, it was like 8-10c EURO SFC LOW off shore now, vs on at hr84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What is a PL event? Ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Moisture incoming @78 into NC. Heavy snow breaking out just west of CLT Colder this run with the low in the southern panhandle of FL. This looks like it's about to go BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Am I crazy or has the Euro slowed down the arrival time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Low sitting right off of SAV @84. Heavy snow in WNC. 850 line getting pulled east. BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 positive tilted still at 78, should be east of 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Am I crazy or has the Euro slowed down the arrival time? No, its keying on the second wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Out to 84 .75 of QPF across much of NC. CLT and I-85 corridor around 1 inch plus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 looks like a big sleet storm for everyone east of I-77 or thereabouts at 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Out to 84 .75 of QPF across much of NC. CLT and I-85 corridor around 1 inch plus! Might just be our time. John might finally get his foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 By 90 it's pulling out and we're digging out. This run was east of 00z for that low. Made a big difference. Temps are still borderline for CLT to RDU but not too worried about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro 996mb Sitting off VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 How does North Georgia fare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This is fantastic trend todays 12z runs with the euro included. 2m and 850 temps are colder in GA, Larry, Chris. Larry, my 850's never get above 5-6 vs 8-10 on the 00z run. verbatim 2m temps are 34-35 but we know how that will go and they have been lowered from 00z run. This run looks it hits Chris' area very hard with sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Might just be our time. John might finally get his foot of snow. By 96 1.5 inches of QPF is at our backdoor. Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 2.7" total QPF this run...WOW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Am I crazy or has the Euro slowed down the arrival time? Looks about the same as far as timing. This run is a touch warmer aloft over north ga/sc than the 0z run. i think it has to do with the fact precip is a fair bit lighter than the 0z run with the first wave. But it's heavier with the second wave. Just through hour 72 it has an inch or greater liguid from atlanta to athens and south. But there is another inch or so after 72. Overall it's actually wetter..showing 2 inches or greater liquid over central ga/sc..and right at 2 inches around atlanta to athens. So the euro is a mixed bag for me. I don't like seeing that warming at 850, even though it's probably just noise. Still would likely spell sleet here but it's just so close between snow/sleet/rain with the first wave that the slightest deviation has huge consequences for my location. In so far as the 2nd wave, it more or less is about the same temp wise at the surface in ga at first but ever so slightly colder over far east/northeast ga into south carolina. Massive ice/sleet storm for areas that we have talked about already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Not sure what is going on, CMC won't update on WB or AmericanWx, now the Euro is stuck at 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This is fantastic trend todays 12z runs with the euro included. 2m and 850 temps are colder in GA, Larry, Chris. Larry, my 850's never get above 5-6 vs 8-10 on the 00z run. verbatim 2m temps are 34-35 but we know how that will go and they have been lowered from 00z run. This run looks it hits Chris' area very hard with sleet? On my maps 850s are slightly warmer with the first wave but colder with the 2nd. Surface temp wise, I don't see much difference over north and northeast ga. If there is any, it's sort of splitting hairs. Regardless the first wave is really tough to nail down the smallest of temp differences aloft just makes a world of difference for areas along and south of 85. North of there it's snow but again precip is lighter. And it's just a huge mess with that second one with a buttload of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 What??? I'm guessing Columbia ends up with a raging sleet storm and not a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yeah I agree, the low needs to get going way more SW of where the GEM shows it, sort of like a 1993 type setup for heavy snow there...my guess is it ends as some snow but is mainly a PL event...I do think you may escape a catastrophic ZR event at least in ATL...MCN may be a different story...I'm also strongly against any snow there tomorrow night, the WSWs to me are warranted but they should be from 2pm onward Tuesday, not tomorrow night, at least outside of far NRN GA. Agreed on the mainly PL event. Also, I think some snow near the start, especially on the northside of ATL to AHN , looks quite possible now. 850's of +1 to +2 C do not support ZR per history in that area. If it is wintry with those 850's it is usually IP, not ZR or S. Regarding start time, I would definitely not let it start as late as 2 PM. I still think that it could POSSIBLY start as early as about 5-9 AM (earliest further north like Cumming). I think it is quite conceivable that on the northside of ATL to AHN, especially, that it is snowing/sleeting nearly all day long (snow to sleet) after ~7-9 AM. Some models are very close to that, if not actually implying that. So, they definitely should play it safe imo, especially since this is only a watch and be open to that reasonable possibility. In my mind, I wouldn't take a chance that it starts in the AM rather than 2 PM+ with it being a close call per models. That could be snowjam 2014 all over again. edit: per Euro, ATL-AHN looking at a lot of IP like 2/1979 and 1/1988! If that occurs, I expect temp.'s to fall into the middle 20's. I think lots of IP down to Tony! Euro 2 meter temp.'s 5+ too warm imo. Edit 2: classic Miller a track of low with ample cold air to the north is consistent with climo to produce a major ATL-AHN winter storm such as the Euro and other models are showing. Very reasonable. Edit: MCN-CAE major ZR looking even more likely per Euro and others. Be prepared just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Looks like from a line from CLT to RDU it's snow through hour 78. Which would be 8-10" for CLT and 2-3" for RDU. After that it's all sleet it looks like for both. Another 0.25" of sleet for CLT and 0.5" for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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