Stormsfury Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 THe cad will keep trending stronger. look at the high pressure on any current sfc analysis over the northern plains, it's an arctic hp with source regions over the nw territories. it's just another reason any thermal boundary that sets up will likely be off the coastline. this situation looks pretty classic. everyone needs to take a deep breath and quit model hugging. Absolutely. Even the threat of the ZR is beginning to lurk into the inland counties of the Lowcountry, and if any model is going to pick up on the degree of it, it's almost always the NAM, and in stronger CAD situations, even it's usually too warm 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is that yet another low spinning up in the GOM? And if so, would it trail the first low, or be forced further east? Can't say I've seen that before, so apologies if that's an ignorant question. I think more likely the LP center will consolidate into one. Right now models are a little confused which piece of energy it wants to treat as the leading wave.. as we move closer it will sniff it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I disagree. The storm back in January of 2000 at least in the Dawsonville area had at least an inch of snow on the ground before freezing rain began.I was talking for mby. I wasn't here in 2000. Also I wasn't talking about snow to ice. I was talking about snow on the ground before the wedge kicks in. Usually the wedge builds in and precip arrives. This is a different set up (also I will admit I have no idea how cads work in dawsonville lol)Many times be ga starts as snow and gets an initial thump then a change over to ip and zr. This is showing a snowfall. Then a wedge type second wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxcwman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was talking for mby. I wasn't here in 2000. Also I wasn't talking about snow to ice. I was talking about snow on the ground before the wedge kicks in. Usually the wedge builds in and precip arrives. This is a different set up (also I will admit I have no idea how cads work in dawsonville lol) Many times be ga starts as snow and gets an initial thump then a change over to ip and zr. This is showing a snowfall. Then a wedge type second wave Check your PM. I was assuming you were still in the clarksville/MT Airy vacinity when I made my post. Cad is a bit less potent here as we are a bit further west. Oh with that being the case, well we live in the south. How many times is there snow on the ground for extended periods anyways? LOL (Ill stop bantering now, you can delete this if you want lookout) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Here's what the nam bufkit has to say for cae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Next up...GFS, what you got sir?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Here's what the nam bufkit has to say for cae plotter.png plotter (1).png Man that is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 These model runs remind me of the big storm we got here in Anderson County (East TN Central Valley) on Grounghog Day 1996. Meteorologists were calling for rain and maybe ice. Day of the storm they were calling for up to 5 inches of ice. Ended up with about 30 minutes of sleet and then the heaviest snowfall I've ever witnessed. And we got 2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliapalooza Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Pardon the newb question: what would need to happen for the majority of the precip to fall as snow so that we can avoid the crippling damage of ice? Wouldn't that first low need to come together in the NE gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM definitely not a good run for "NW" sections of nc/sc. Hopefully it remains an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z GFS wetter with overrunning @27 compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 @30 it looks like the NAM with some light precip over WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Here's what the nam bufkit has to say for cae plotter.png plotter (1).png This type of ice would absolutely decimate pine trees and power lines, really any trees for that matter. It would be catastrophic for sure. It is going to be interesting to see how far that freezing line heads south and how long it stays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The difference between the 00z run and 12z run of NAM for North Alabama and Tennessee is just ridiculous. the difference between major winter storm and a cloudy day. 00z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Bastardi placing more weight on the ECMWF in his morning video to clients. Carolinas are covered but the big ticket he thinks is how the NE gets the largest snows from this. Joe's thoughts are that the storm Wednesday will come just inland up the coastal plain and off around Norfolk. Still we don't get left out and if Bastardi is correct, most in the Carolinas will be pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Light snow coming into NC at hr 30. Southern piece over vegas looks a little stronger than 6z run. also looks a little colder overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 So reading all info put forth by you guys . Whatever solutions are formulated concerning this storm its mostly an inland threat and here at the beaches a very cold possibly windswept rain ? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ouch http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kmcn.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Light snow coming into NC at hr 30. Southern piece over vegas looks a little stronger than 6z run. also looks a little colder overall HP over the MW looks stonger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 @45 12z is really holding that southern energy stronger. Looks pretty close to the NAM at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WPC ZR probabilities are painting over 80% chance of ZR (.01") just north of areas like KSAV and KCHS, and about 50% of .10" just north of KCHS by 12z WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Stronger TX s/w... trending toward the NAM/Euro. Less overrunning ahead of the low.. going to be more of a consolidated low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 HR48 a little stronger with southern piece of energy and slower a bit, also colder a bit as well at 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ouch http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kmcn.txt CAE doesn't look that great either http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kcae.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 WPC ZR probabilities are painting over 80% chance of ZR (.01") just north of areas like KSAV and KCHS, and about 50% of .10" just north of KCHS by 12z WED. Not too happy about that, especially after this last ice storm in Charleston that shut down the Ravenel bridge for 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 interesting thought - was discussed briefly yesterday (i think) at one point. we didnt remember a wedge coming in with snow cover either. i would tend to agree with you, if anything it could help with that extra degree or two drop that we so often need here in ga lol. i have had storms come in and go snow to ice or rain. i do not recall a one two punch like is being shown. this seems for the most part (as others stated this morning) to be looking like a more usual se winter storm with snow, sleet and freezing rain (to rain in some areas). since we are what, less than two days away its looking pretty good. we are almost to the point of being able to see the temps and radar start lighting up lol This is a very valid point. Just with the recent icestorm event that traversed back on 1/29. KCHS stayed below FRZ for about 50 consecutive hours, thanks in part to upstream snow cover in the Pee Dee region of SC and the snow cover in Eastern NC as the NNE winds continued to funnel down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 HR54 its def. colder here in GA. Rain for me, but colder overall Southern energy is stronger and a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 CAE doesn't look that great either http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kcae.txt oh good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 850 60hr image getting juiced up in LA and TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 gsf continues the trend of being colder at 850mb and moving that area of snowfall south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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