cpasi Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Our whole area is in back to back 6 hour panels @ .15 - .25 contours. And a follow up .10 - .15 on the tail. Whats that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I agree mitch but after looking at the EPS run I can't help but to think about believing the chance exists. yeah Bob, and the chance existed in 12/26/2010 but with great blocking, great pattern, blah, blah blah, and still nothing I want this to happen as much as anyone in our area, but Lucy is quick with that football and I have grass stains on my pants that will never wash out as it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 yeah Bob, and the chance existed in 12/26/2010 but with great blocking, great pattern, blah, blah blah, and still nothing I want this to happen as much as anyone in our area, but Lucy is quick with that football and I have grass stains on my pants that will never wash out as it is I'm worried about the typical 50/50 that the models like to show early and then pull away from us as we get closer to the event. As I understand it, we lose that 50/50, we lose this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm worried about the typical 50/50 that the models like to show early and then pull away from us as we get closer to the event. As I understand it, we lose that 50/50, we lose this storm. We lose a miller A but we can easily score on the front of a miller B. I'm not sold on a miller A at all. Even after seeing quite a bit of agreement from the euro and eps. My excitement is mostly from what I'm seeing on the panels. Not what I really think is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We lose a miller A but we can easily score on the front of a miller B. I'm not sold on a miller A at all. Even after seeing quite a bit of agreement from the euro and eps. My excitement is mostly from what I'm seeing on the panels. Not what I really think is going to happen. What's scaring you off from the Miller A look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The last good storm we had that was pretty much locked in well in advance was 2/5-6 or 2/9-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The last good storm we had that was pretty much locked in well in advance was 2/5-6 or 2/9-10? 2/5-2/6 but that pattern was totally different to this one. A lot easier to lock in because of well established block and other things that my weak mind is forgetting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What's scaring you off from the Miller A look? Weaken or move the vortex over the Maritimes and it al changes. Same with the block near baffin island. We need the euro to verify almost identical to get a miller a. Way too many days in front of us for things to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Weaken or move the vortex over the Maritimes and it al changes. Same with the block near baffin island. We need the euro to verify almost identical to get a miller a. Way too many days in front of us for things to change Miller A's are so rare. It almost makes sense that it would be some kind of a transfer storm. But we can still do OK with an upfront thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 this is why I find it hard to get excited over a 5 day Euro forecast that was a cautionary tale about having the ridge too far east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Miller A's are so rare. It almost makes sense that it would be some kind of a transfer storm. But we can still do OK with an upfront thump. OK for you probably but us "Near the Bay'ers" fail more often than not on upfront thumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So will this be happy hour?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So will this be happy hour?? Already started ahead of time but I know what we are up against with something like this...Miller A..Hmmm can't believe it..I am having beer for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sure, completely understand the point. Just enjoy learning as I go. If you want to learn, talk to somebody else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 LP developing in S AL at 138... decent s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 this is why I find it hard to get excited over a 5 day Euro forecast I don't have the best memory, but 5 days out the euro was on its own with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Toss this run. Warm...miller B transfer too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS is a mess...too disorganized and then takes a bad track....another rainstorm for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I don't have the best memory, but 5 days out the euro was on its own with that one. nah, they all had a storm of sorts...even HPC loved the Euro idea (sort of like today????) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 LP developing in S AL at 138... decent s/w It's too close for comfort even though it passes under us. It would be a disaster if it played out like that. Not worried about the run but it shows the risks pretty starkly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I thought Ensembles were vastly superior at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS is a mess...too disorganized and then takes a bad track....another rainstorm for DC frankly, I'd rather see it like that our storms tend to be modeled in the last 24-48 hours, or so it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like rain on the 18Z GFS. Not that it matters at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Big storm with bad surface temps and epic dry slot over MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 warmest storm in history to have a 1040 high to the northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I thought Ensembles were vastly superior at this range... They are and a gfs op run at this lead won't mean much one way or another unless you're just looking for emotional boost that carries you over for 6 hours. The run shows a miller A though unlike 12z with the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Generally looked like a step in the right direction over 12z though so thats all Ill take from it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The vortex over the maritimes slides ne as the storm approaches. It's one of the problems we are faced with for sure. Less confluence so the storm gets too close. It's a reasonable solution unfortunately but we're a long ways from knowing one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 our 50-50 vanishes and the storm takes an inland track..scooting out ahead of the trough...the solution is entirely reasonable too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 and it doesn't look all that different from the Euro at 144 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=144ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_144_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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