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February Banter


POWERSTROKE

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Hey guys, I was wondering if y'all could give me some advice. I'm driving from Shelby NC to Chapel Hill Wed. for the Duke - UNC game. Should I leave Tues. afternoon or do y'all think I would be OK leaving Wed. morning? If I'm reading correct the second heavier wave will be coming in sometime Wed.

 

I understand this is somewhat of an IMBY post but I don't know of anywhere else to go to get advice. I sure can't rely on the TV forecasts!!!

 

Thanks for any advice y'all can give.

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RAH changed grids for RDU to rain on Wed, thinks wintery precip will be confined to the west, makes sense, models probably under doing the WAA.

I thought we had a strong wedge here. All I read in the storm thread is that every run is colder colder colder. Wouldn't our surface temps be below freezing at least?

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I thought we had a strong wedge here. All I read in the storm thread is that every run is colder colder colder. Wouldn't our surface temps be below freezing at least?

They treat Euro as the almighty one and we hover around 29-30F during peak precip, if it's 32 it's probably a cold rain. The Euro is so strong it's going to warm us. They are better than us, if they thought this had a chance at all they would be trumpeting this as 3-4" of snow with 1-2" of sleet would be crazy bad, so they must not be buying it.

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They treat Euro as the almighty one and we hover around 29-30F during peak precip, if it's 32 it's probably a cold rain. The Euro is so strong it's going to warm us. They are better than us, if they thought this had a chance at all they would be trumpeting this as 3-4" of snow with 1-2" of sleet would be crazy bad, so they must not be buying it.

Ok, but I wanna know one thing. Are you all in or not? :)

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They treat Euro as the almighty one and we hover around 29-30F during peak precip, if it's 32 it's probably a cold rain. The Euro is so strong it's going to warm us. They are better than us, if they thought this had a chance at all they would be trumpeting this as 3-4" of snow with 1-2" of sleet would be crazy bad, so they must not be buying it.

 

I have to admit the RAH office is one of the best around.  They usually do a fantastic job.

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CAE had  question and answer session on fb.....here was my question...

 

 For the upcoming system, do you believe the 2m temps that are being modeled are too warm due to a perfectly placed cad? It looks to me that mcn/ags/cae would be ground zero for a nasty ice storm

 

here was their answer  

 

Michelle, this does look like a near classic CAD event and the models do tend to be a bit warm in the near surface layer with these events, so an ice storm in the Midlands cannot be ruled out.

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Ok, but I wanna know one thing. Are you all in or not? :)

 

I think we see 1-3" but when the SLP starts coming up the coast we flip to rain, think Dec 2009, that SLP tracked over Hatteras just like the Euro is showing now and no high pressure, we have a retreating high pressure that has shifted into the Atlantic, no way we don't flip, and I think RAH believes that too.  I remember tracking the Dec 2009 storm about this range and we were right on the edge of rain/snow and what happened....This isn't me being pessimistic, this is me studying old analogs how things worked out.  I don't ever remember a storm that ended being colder than modeled, think last week when FAY/PGV had all the mixing, it turned out to be warmer than modeled.  We must be different from GA for CAD, maybe there temps are warmer on models than what verifies but for us it's always warmer than what models show.  

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I think we see 1-3" but when the SLP starts coming up the coast we flip to rain, think Dec 2009, that SLP tracked over Hatteras just like the Euro is showing now and no high pressure, we have a retreating high pressure that has shifted into the Atlantic, no way we don't flip, and I think RAH believes that too. I remember tracking the Dec 2009 storm about this range and we were right on the edge of rain/snow and what happened....This isn't me being pessimistic, this is me studying old analogs how things worked out. I don't ever remember a storm that ended being colder than modeled, think last week when FAY/PGV had all the mixing, it turned out to be warmer than modeled. We must be different from GA for CAD, maybe there temps are warmer on models than what verifies but for us it's always warmer than what models show.

I would normally agree with you, but since I'm all in....maybe we'll get Nam'ed!!

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I would normally agree with you, but since I'm all in....maybe we'll get Nam'ed!!

 

Well that was poetic, as soon as I typed that the NAM brought the over-running back and RAH just updated there GRIDS showing massive winter storm here, still not all in, waiting until 12z tomorrows runs.  NAM does blow past 36 hours, if the RGEM shows that I will go eat something unhealthy like Bojangles :-)  

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Well that was poetic, as soon as I typed that the NAM brought the over-running back and RAH just updated there GRIDS showing massive winter storm here, still not all in, waiting until 12z tomorrows runs.  NAM does blow past 36 hours, if the RGEM shows that I will go eat something unhealthy like Bojangles :-)  

Yeah I was sure the NAM was going to phase later and destroy NC and then I was like ruh ruh why did you have to phase then why couldn't you have waited another 100 miles......

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Yeah, all these good runs and still all the negativity, wow! 90% of people on this board will get something other than rain, IMO !

 

Probably because nobody can tell exactly what the "something" will be.  I mean I can't tell (nor can people a lot smarter about this than I am) if we're getting sleet, freezing rain, or snow here - or if it will simply be a rain event.  And we are not much more than 24 hours out from the start now.

 

I guess I'll buy a little bit of extra food in the morning, just in case.  Maybe dig the extra flashlights out of the camp kit in the garage.  But I suspect it's going to be just like the storm a couple of weeks ago - nobody will know what's going to fall until after it's already fallen. :)

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Well that was poetic, as soon as I typed that the NAM brought the over-running back and RAH just updated there GRIDS showing massive winter storm here, still not all in, waiting until 12z tomorrows runs.  NAM does blow past 36 hours, if the RGEM shows that I will go eat something unhealthy like Bojangles :-)

Haha! How can the nam put down so much snow? Looks like the 850s aren't there. And what's up with the snowfall map in centimeters? Let's do one in fathoms.

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Just for fun, RAH wants to give us some practice flurries tomorrow afternoon/night ;)

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SMEARING LIGHT POST-FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z TO 06Z...WITH EMPHASIZE ON THE WORD "LIGHT"...WITH AVERAGE LIQUID AMOUNTS OF ONLY 0.03 TO 0.05". BASED ON PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SFC WETBULBS...THE AIRMASS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD AND MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW/FLURRIES NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRIANGLE(OR US 64 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD)...WITH A LIGHT RAIN/MIX SOUTH OF THE TRIANGLE...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT.
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