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POWERSTROKE

February Banter

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I want one or two more nice storms.  However, I only want them if they can hit during the night or on the weekend, because my local governments are #fail.

 

Not that I'm picky or anything.

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Seahawks. That's right.

 

http://www.bigblueview.com/2014/1/29/5357534/super-bowl-prop-bets-48-prop-bets-super-bowl-xlviii-broncos-seahawks

#18 is great!

 

Percentage Chance

1. 10 percent chance there will be a score in the first 90 seconds of the game (Yes +850 | No -1600)

2. 12 percent chance, IF Denver wins, Peyton Manning retires before Game 1of next year (Yes +700 | No -1500)

3. 13 percent chance the game will go into overtime (Yes +650 | No -900)

4. 19 percent chance Richard Sherman gets a taunting penalty during the game (Yes +400 | No -700)

5. 23 percent chance Percy Harvin is knocked out of the game by injury (Yes +300 | No -500)

50/50 Props

6. Will there be a score in the first 6.5 minutes of the game?

7. Will player who scores first touchdown have a jersey number above or below 79.5?

8. What will be mentioned more: Denver's #1 offense OR Seattle's #1 defense?

9. Will any Red Hot Chili Peppers member be shirtless during the performance?

Over/Under Props

10. Over/Under for Renee Fleming to sing the National Anthem: 2 minutes and 23 seconds

11. Over/Under for longest made field goal of the game: 43.5 yards

12. Over/Under for net yards by both teams combined: 702.5 yards

Times Shown On TV

13. Eli Manning: over/under 1.5 times (Over -140 | Under +100)

14. Archie Manning: over/under 1 time (Over -160 | Under +120)

15. 54 percent chance Erin Andrews will be shown before Pam Oliver after kickoff

Times Mentioned During Broadcast

16. "12th Man": over/under 2 times (Over +100 | Under -140)

17. "Beast Mode": over/under 2 times (Over +110 | Under -150)

18. 21 percent chance announcers say "Marijuana" during the game (Yes +350 | No -600)

Big Payoff Props

19. Seattle OR Denver shutout: 50/1

20. Seattle OR Denver score exactly two-points: 2500/1

7 or less points combined scored in Super Bowl: 200/1

21. Seattle scores 50 or more points: 30/1

22. Denver scores 50 or more points: 25/1

From Bovada

23. Will it snow during the game?

Yes +300 (3/1) | No -500 (1/5])

24. What will be the temperature at Kickoff?

Over/Under 34 degrees Fahrenheit

25. What will be the lowest temperature during the game?

Over/Under 31 degrees Fahrenheit

26. Will the power go out in the stadium during the game?

Yes 25/1

27. How long will it take Renee Fleming to sing the US National Anthem?

Over 2 minutes 30 seconds EVEN (1/1)

Under 2 minutes 30 seconds -140 (5/7)

28. Will Renee Fleming forget or omit at least 1 word of the official US National Anthem?

Yes +250 (5/2)

No -400 (1/4)

29. Will Renee Fleming wear gloves when she starts singing the US National Anthem?

Yes -200 (1/2)

No +150 (3/2)

30. If Renee Fleming wears gloves when she starts singing US National Anthem what color will they be?

White 5/4

Black 3/2

Red 4/1

Any Other Color 3/1

31. Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the singing of the National Anthem?

Yes +400 (4/1)

No -700 (1/7)

32. How many times will Peyton Manning say "Omaha" during the game?

Over/Under 27½

33. How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV during the game?

Over/Under 2½

34. How many times will Eli Manning be shown on TV during the game?

Over/Under 3½

35. Which coach will be mentioned first by name after kickoff?

Pete Carroll -110

John Fox -110

36. Will Bruno Mars and the Red Hot Chili Peppers play a song on stage at the same time?

Yes -200 (1/2)

No +150 (3/2)

37. Which song will Bruno Mars perform first?

Treasure 2/1

Grenade 5/2

Locked Out Of Heaven 3/1

Just The Way You Are 6/1

Marry You 7/1

The Lazy Song 10/1

Gorilla 10/1

38. What will Bruno Mars be wearing on his head at the start of his Half Time performance?

Fedora 2/3

No hat 2/1

Fur Hat 5/1

Tuque 8/1

39. Will the Halftime show break the record for most watched ever (Record Madonna 114 million viewers)

Yes +150 (3/2)

No -200 (1/2)

40. Who will Barack Obama pick to win the game?

Seattle Seahawks -110

Denver Broncos -110

41. Will Richard Sherman be interviewed on field after the game by Erin Andrews on the live FOX broadcast and shown on TV?

Yes -110

No -110

42. What Color will the Gatorade (or liquid) be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the Winning Super Bowl Team?

Clear/Water 2/1

Orange 3/1

Yellow 3/1

Red 5/1

Blue 7/1

Green 10/1

43. What will the TV Rating be for the Super Bowl?

Over/Under Nielsen Rating 47½

44. Will Richard Sherman be interviewed on field after the game on the live FOX broadcast?

Yes -110

No -110

45. Will either team successfully convert a 4th down attempt?

Yes (4th Down Converted) -200 (1/2)

No (4th Down Converted) +160 (8/5)

46. Will Michael Crabtree mention Richard Sherman in a tweet during the Super Bowl from kickoff until final whistle?

Yes +150 (3/2)

No -200 (1/2)47. Will the announcers refer to Russell Wilson being drafted in the MLB?

Yes +150 (3/2)

No -200 (1/2)

48. Who will the Super Bowl MVP of the mention first in his speech?

Teammates 2/1

God 5/2

Fans 5/1

Other Team or Player on Other Team 7/1

Coach 12/1

Family 12/1

Owner 25/1

Does not mention any of the above 4/1

 

 

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Amazing how the board has done a 180 in less than 24 hours.  Depressing!

TW

I think people in CAD areas and especially here in NC,  still have a good shot at an Ice storm Friday/Saturday next week. But Snow storm looks to be off the table at the moment.  But things sure don't look as good as 24 hours ago (model agreement)!  But it could turn back around next 24 hours. These 7-10 days storms are going to flip flop every run until within 3 days or closer....  Fab Feb :)

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I think people in CAD areas and especially here in NC, still have a good shot at an Ice storm Friday/Saturday next week. But Snow storm looks to be off the table at the moment. But things sure don't look as good as 24 hours ago (model agreement)! But it could turn back around next 24 hours. These 7-10 days storms are going to flip flop every run until within 3 days or closer.... Fab Feb :)

Lol. Bring on 50's

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I think people in CAD areas and especially here in NC,  still have a good shot at an Ice storm Friday/Saturday next week. But Snow storm looks to be off the table at the moment.  But things sure don't look as good as 24 hours ago (model agreement)!  But it could turn back around next 24 hours. These 7-10 days storms are going to flip flop every run until within 3 days or closer....  Fab Feb :)

Certainly possible and our areas have a much better chance than most.  Yesterday prior to last nights 00z runs, there was irrational exhuberance about an historic February (at least by a few, but nobody seemed to argue).  Now today, there is little to get excited about, and much of the long term discussion is about warmth and lack of cold.  Seems like we've done this a time or two already this year and within a day or two, the "warm up" doesn't look so warm or last more than 2-3 days.   

 

DT's backed off and Robert seems to be pulling back to the northwest portions of the southeast and has thrown no bones today to the bulk of the board.

 

TW

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Lol seems like there's more discussion here than anywhere on the board right now. Can someone break down the Nam's 57-63 hr temp for southern va. I hate when we have a storm that breaks us up because southern va ends up getting stuck inbetween boards between southeast and mid Atlantic. 850's are literally right on top of us when the heavy precip comes in. I'm assuming and hoping that heavy rates can overcome sketchy bl

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Awesome with the prop bets, Strong. I always love to see what they come up with. I just hope the commercials don't suck this year.

TW, the theme for this year is unpredictable. Is that different from any year though, really? Lol! I don't see any indication of historic Feb in the making. On the other hand, I don't see any indication that we should throw in the towel either. Forget about hype, models, and the shifting sentiment on this board, myself included.

What do we know? We know that the SE ridge has been over-modeled so far. We know that torches have been muted and have turned out much less than originally depicted. We know the NAO has been positive. We know that the -EPO has been a dominant feature and for the most part has trumped otherwise unfavorable signals. And we know that if winter ended now, we'd probably remember it more for episodes of cold than winter weather events.

Now, given that, is there anything to suggest the next 6 weeks are going to end up differently? I don't see anything. The indexes we usually look at look terrible today, but that hasn't meant a whole lot so far. So, then, who cares? I don't think we torch. I don't think we evolve into some blockbuster winter pattern either. Nothing in the data I can see suggests much of anything different than we've seen so far.

Canada looks to remain very cold. As long as the cold is nearby, we're in the game. But the odds are no better than a 50/50 prop bet at this point. No reason to throw in the towel on winter. No reason to be overly exuberant either.

I suspect we'll get another legit chance or two. Next weekend? Not so optimistic. After the 10th or so? Better, IMO. :)

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Lol seems like there's more discussion here than anywhere on the board right now. Can someone break down the Nam's 57-63 hr temp for southern va. I hate when we have a storm that breaks us up because southern va ends up getting stuck inbetween boards between southeast and mid Atlantic. 850's are literally right on top of us when the heavy precip comes in. I'm assuming and hoping that heavy rates can overcome sketchy bl

here's a little light for you I think, game on for you!!!

 

269948_622587471104645_2091126056_a.jpg

 
NAM is still the furthest south with snow chances Sunday night and Monday morning. It's going to be a close call for eastern Kentucky, northern Tennessee and western to middle Virginia. I think this looks about right, but a little too high on snow amounts. As for the snow/rain/sleet line, about right though. There is still time to refine the amounts and the line between precip types. It shows a weak 850 low in western Virginia Monday morning..which could help intensify the snow rates in western Virginia, northern VA and eastern West Virginia. I'd keep my eyes on this for western northern TN, and through eastern Ky, Va to Maryland.
1654247_776655709031153_2023137301_n.jpg

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Lol seems like there's more discussion here than anywhere on the board right now. Can someone break down the Nam's 57-63 hr temp for southern va. I hate when we have a storm that breaks us up because southern va ends up getting stuck inbetween boards between southeast and mid Atlantic. 850's are literally right on top of us when the heavy precip comes in. I'm assuming and hoping that heavy rates can overcome sketchy bl

 

I would say rain-to-wet snow with perhaps 1-4" of accumulation.  BL temps might be a problem.  850s go below 0C right around hr 57-60.  Surface temps probably never go below freezing.

 

The WeatherBell clown spits out 2-3", which actually seems kind of reasonable, although, again, BL temps are problematic, so that would cut down on accumulations.

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I would said rain-to-wet snow with perhaps 1-4" of accumulation. BL temps might be a problem. 850s go below 0C right around hr 57-60. Surface temps probably never go below freezing.

The WeatherBell clown spits out 2-3", which actually seems kind of reasonable, although, again, BL temps are problematic, so that would cut down on accumulations.

Sun angle and soil temps are ok?

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Sun angle and soil temps are ok?

 

Early February sun angle = problematic.

 

Warm soil temperatures = problematic.

 

Saturated soil = problematic.

 

It's a disaster!  :lmao:

 

;)

 

Don't worry, though, because Fab February and Marvelous March are going to give us some fantastic snowfall rates from our train of Big Dogs, so we won't have to worry about pesky soil temperatures and sun angles whenever the snow is coming down at 2-3"/hr.

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All wintry precip in Fab February and Marvelous March stops at a line running along Interstate 16. Sorry. :( Maybe go chase to Macon?

Sigh. :( :( I'll take the rain.

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Sun angle and soil temps are ok?

Funny thing is , we don't give the sun enough credit?! My 1/2 inch of snow was melted/ sublimated off of my backyard in full sun with temps in the teens. Today with temps in the mid 50s , there was still snow left in the shade! The suns radiation is no joke! :(

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Sigh. :( :( I'll take the rain.

 

We have a HAL 9000 computer that uses a scoring matrix to produce probabilities of snowfall based on the weighting of the ensemble means given their past verification scores during the particular synoptic setup.  We expect all wintry precipitation for the rest of the winter to be well north and west of Waycross, GA.

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We have a HAL 9000 computer that uses a scoring matrix to produce probabilities of snowfall based on the weighting of the ensemble means given their past verification scores during the particular synoptic setup. We expect all wintry precipitation for the rest of the winter to be well north and west of Waycross, GA.

You don't have to have a super computer to predict the weather. Just watch the bird activity in Wilkesboro NC

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You don't have to have a super computer to predict the weather. Just watch the bird activity in Wilkesboro NC

Ill just stick to the ole Weather Stone.......when i look out the door and ye ole stone be white, i know its snowing.

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Funny thing is , we don't give the sun enough credit?! My 1/2 inch of snow was melted/ sublimated off of my backyard in full sun with temps in the teens. Today with temps in the mid 50s , there was still snow left in the shade! The suns radiation is no joke! :(

Ugh you should have put the snow in the freezer and saved it till it snowed again, throw it in the new snow, and see how long it takes to melt.

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We have a HAL 9000 computer that uses a scoring matrix to produce probabilities of snowfall based on the weighting of the ensemble means given their past verification scores during the particular synoptic setup. We expect all wintry precipitation for the rest of the winter to be well north and west of Waycross, GA.

Our analysis of the model shows it has a significant warm bias. We could very well be in the game.

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Ugh you should have put the snow in the freezer and saved it till it snowed again, throw it in the new snow, and see how long it takes to melt.

I would have told you to save your sleet pellets for the next sleet storm, but you may not have room in your freezer to keep it until 2044! :)

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