It's Always Sunny Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Euro came in big with the blizzard but I think the GFS picked out landfall first for this storm, not 100% though. Euro seems to do well with many large events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Euro came in big with the blizzard but I think the GFS picked out landfall first for this storm, not 100% though. Euro seems to do well with many large events. It did, yup -- and, typical for the GFS, it goes A.D.D. and gets distracted like a hyperactive brat on a chocolate bender. GFS quite typically scopes out something at like ... jesus, day 12 I've seen it in the past, then poof. Gone. Meanwhile, the GGEM goes bananas and overdoes it at D6, the Euro destroys the EC on D5 .... and then finfally the GFS swoops in with like 20 minutes left before storm start time to signal the apocalypse. Problem is getting the 11 days between day 12 and day 1 to show some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Going to be a long long week with all these swings from run run with some on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Jerry is excited, posting gefs qpf breakdowns at 132 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I think the chances for an event are growing, but you still have to think the euro is an outlier, and probably a lesser solution is closer to the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Jerry is excited, posting gefs qpf breakdowns at 132 hrs Yeah I'm feeling this. I always like fresh and deep cold around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 18z GFS is certainly plausible. I don't mind a 24-36 hour duration light to moderate snowfall, as long as we get accumulations. Scott mentioned earlier today about a large circulation low pressure center, well there it is Scott. I have a lot of hopes for this system, but a long duration, light to moderate event on cape cod is not on of them. GEFS look decent. 0.5+ for much of the region and 0.75+ for BOS to PVD inside 128 and east for the mean. Very strong signal for day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I have a lot of hopes for this system, but a long duration, light to moderate event on cape cod is not on of them. Very strong signal for day 5. OES CJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 GEFS look decent. 0.5+ for much of the region and 0.75+ for BOS to PVD inside 128 and east for the mean. Another nice bump west..All that we need is the Nogaps and it's done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Man expectations seem high for such a long lead time. You can already tell people would be disappointed with a 3-6 inch type event and we are like 6 days out, lol. The natives are getting restless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Man expectations seem high for such a long lead time. You can already tell people would be disappointed with a 3-6 inch type event and we are like 6 days out, lol. The natives are getting restless. I won't be disappointed with even 1-3 inches. It's gonna snow..just a matter of huge or minor or something in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Does the pattern even support a system of the size the euro is printing out? I would love to be all in on this. I'm just feeling really skeptical, no idea why really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Man expectations seem high for such a long lead time. You can already tell people would be disappointed with a 3-6 inch type event and we are like 6 days out, lol. The natives are getting restless. I already set my goal of 2-4, more would be great. Like Jerry, fresh cold and colder after works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Does the pattern even support a system of the size the euro is printing out? I would love to be all in on this. I'm just feeling really skeptical, no idea why really Sure, its possible to get big storms if you phase energy into even fast moving progressive flow. You can almost get sort of "pseudo blocks" in progressive flow that can temporarily slow a system down...or the phasing itself slows down a progressive system (think back to January 12, 2011). The "problem" with a lack of Atlantic blocking is that it just reduces our margin for error on phasing and other nuances. So you need a lot of things to align to get a longer duration large event. The 12z OP Euro manages to incorporate enough pieces timed well to produce an ideal New England long duration snowstorm in an otherwise progressive pattern. The irony on the Euro is the progressive pattern actually helps us stay snow...that trough in the midwest is starting to amp up pretty good by 114-120 hours...which in a slower pattern might deepen and go negative too soon...spraying the low up into NY State or something...but the fast flow trucks the trough eastward as it deepens and the low is shoved to the coast quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Was jan 12,2011 the one kev got like 25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Was jan 12,2011 the one kev got like 25". OMG what an epic month that was.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Was jan 12,2011 the one kev got like 25".What about that one? That was a totally different pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Ez question Kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Another nice bump west..All that we need is the Nogaps and it's done Lol..nogaps is in fact on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Ez question Kev?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2013 Author Share Posted December 29, 2013 Lol..nogaps is in fact on board.Schwartz Synoptic Seven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Schwartz Synoptic Seven The NOGAPs was retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The NOGAPs was retired. Aka navgem, Everyone knew I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 The NOGAPs was retired. I thought it was still run though. Sort of like a 'classic cars show'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Aka navgem, Everyone knew I thought. Yeah, but it got a big upgrade with the change. It's not your old NOGAPs anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Yeah, but it got a big upgrade with the change. It's not your old NOGAPs anymore. It's way better but it's still high minors, Like jma and navgem are triple A, Korean is the cape cod league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 I thought it was still run though. Sort of like a 'classic cars show'.Hard to get parts for a Commodore 64 now though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's way better but it's still high minors, Like jma and navgem are triple A, Korean is the cape cod league. Sure...I'm not saying it's great. I'm just not sure it fits the "SSS" anymore. The old ETA/EC, SREFs, and NOGAPs forecasting tricks can't be applied today although some still like to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 It's way better but it's still high minors, Like jma and navgem are triple A, Korean is the cape cod league. Sure...I'm not saying it's great. I'm just not sure it fits the "SSS" anymore. The old ETA/EC, SREFs, and NOGAPs forecasting tricks can't be applied today although some still like to. yeah there's a handful that just don't work anymore. and some observational biases too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Sure...I'm not saying it's great. I'm just not sure it fits the "SSS" anymore. The old ETA/EC, SREFs, and NOGAPs forecasting tricks can't be applied today although some still like to. Where's the JMA been -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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