OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 We've been asking that question for years and nobody really knows...its really unknown as to why the amounts were so extreme. (different from, say, a 1-3" sotrm turning into a 8-10" fluff bomb) There may have been gravity waves involved, but that alone isn't exactly satisfactory. I do like the instability progged in the current system...so I won't be surprised if some pretty intense rates are seen few a lucky few. Sometimes the mystery makes it cooler, anyway lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Sometimes the mystery makes it cooler, anyway lol. I feel the same way...it gives you some realistic hope that events can still bust badly in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 We've been asking that question for years and nobody really knows...its really unknown as to why the amounts were so extreme. (different from, say, a 1-3" storm turning into a 8-10" fluff bomb) There may have been gravity waves involved, but that alone isn't exactly satisfactory. I do like the instability progged in the current system...so I won't be surprised if some pretty intense rates are seen few a lucky few. Heh, I say there's a lot of explanation in the fact that the models busted on the intensity of the polar high lingering just N. of Maine, and it had a dammed nose in the PP extending through SNE. The wind max at mid -levels rode normal to the polar air mass interface with the encroaching jet max, such that it forced the responding inflow channel almost vertical (up the elevated frontal slope). Super maximized omega -- may as well been blowing a Pac air mass up against the wall of the Sierra Nevada; it was the atmospheric equivalent. Also, one conditional aspect was that it was clear sky amid that ridge axis until about 5 am, and then the shield came in densely and capped the radiationally cooled BL. It was few degrees below guidance at down, ...some 19F ... and with still air and a cloud deck, and the high retreating N (not E!) the whole situation was a bust written on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 fwiw... h5 depiction on RAP for 0z 12/17 is much much closer to 18z GFS than 0z/18z NAM, in both intensity and location of vm's... significantly so and eager to see the model diagnostic disco. not sure how this translates as all the pieces of energy interact, but at least something objective to give weight to GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 fwiw... h5 depiction on RAP for 0z 12/17 is much much closer to 18z GFS than 0z/18z NAM, in both intensity and location of vm's... significantly so and eager to see the model diagnostic disco. not sure how this translates as all the pieces of energy interact, but at least something objective to give weight to GFS solution. Agree 100% and the HRRR continues to appear the same to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Heh, I say there's a lot of explanation in the fact that the models busted on the intensity of the polar high lingering just N. of Maine, and it had a dammed nose in the PP extending through SNE. The wind max at mid -levels rode normal to the polar air mass interface with the encroaching jet max, such that it forced the responding inflow channel almost vertical (up the elevated frontal slope). Super maximized omega -- may as well been blowing a Pac air mass up against the wall of the Sierra Nevada; it was the atmospheric equivalent. Also, one conditional aspect was that it was clear sky amid that ridge axis until about 5 am, and then the shield came in densely and capped the radiationally cooled BL. It was few degrees below guidance at down, ...some 19F ... and with still air and a cloud deck, and the high retreating N (not E!) the whole situation was a bust written on the wall. Yes, that was def a factor, but it doesn't explain how a weak fast-moving shortwave dropped 18"+ over a fairly decent area. It explains maybe half of it IMHO...getitng that 6-10 inch fluff bomb out of an otherwise 1-3" yawner. Anyways, I don't want to digress further...but the storm is an interesting case study nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Haven't read any other posts or checked much all day. Just saw the 18z GFS and it is very close to a major snowstorm for all of SNE. 500mb looks much improved... just what I hoped might happen if the 2nd wave ended up stronger and had a little room to amplify. I would downplay QPF for now... if this run is correct I think it will prove to be too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Agree 100% and the HRRR continues to appear the same to me Looks to me like there will be snow falling much of Tuesday night especially the further east you go..and into Wednesday morning. The NAM is playing catchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yes, that was def a factor, but it doesn't explain how a weak fast-moving shortwave dropped 18"+ over a fairly decent area. It explains maybe half of it IMHO...getitng that 6-10 inch fluff bomb out of an otherwise 1-3" yawner. Anyways, I don't want to digress further...but the storm is an interesting case study nonetheless. Yeah, not to digress -- I just want to add this one thing, though. It would not have been a 1-3" yawner, because the ETA was signaling a warmer column, with wet snow and rain all the way back to ORH. That's a clue that what was going to end up being transported over the cold dome had a higher pwat. Now back to the regularly scheduled program... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 RGEM just caved too. Has measurable overnight Tuesday...more as you go to the east with the 10mm nipping the lower cape and 5mm right around E coastal MA..pushes the measurable overnight back to about Kevin. I like where this is going. Flakes should be flying most of the night Tuesday in eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 RGEM just caved too. towards the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks to me like there will be snow falling much of Tuesday night especially the further east you go..and into Wednesday morning. The NAM is playing catchup. When will says 2'nd SW is not gonna get it done bc mid level barcolinic axis is shot (or whateva) (unless the first wave disappears ) . Im not really even sure what to hope for ...other than not gettin zippo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm still catching up on the day's guidance and this thread... wanted to reiterate that several of the GEFS members show a widespread significant snowstorm. First time I've seen more than a single member do that on any ensemble guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 towards the NAM? Towards it lasting into the night Tuesday like the old 18z GFS. Let's see what the GFS does.....the trend here is a friend if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Certainly not anywhere near unprecedented but nice to get two December snow storms in a week with temps (at least in NW MA) in the teens or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Haven't been following this all too much but this second shortwave we talking about over the Mid Atlantic while we're getting hit with the first one? I feel like it garnered a lot of interest but looks very subtle until it develops offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah I think we have no choice...as long as the first one even exists, it is going to tighten the mid-level baroclinic zone up and the conditions behind it are shot for the 2nd shortwave...nothing really to work with. Maybe we get lucky and the models totally screw it up this close, but I'll keep expectations in the advisory range...and hope we get a Dec '97, lol. I agree the first s/w will probably spoil the environment for the second s/w. But several GEFS members are signaling that it's still possible, even at this late stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The UL's just don't match-up with the surface. Bueller? Love the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 RGEM just caved too. Has measurable overnight Tuesday...more as you go to the east with the 10mm nipping the lower cape and 5mm right around E coastal MA..pushes the measurable overnight back to about Kevin. I like where this is going. Flakes should be flying most of the night Tuesday in eastern sections. I honestly dont like where were going w this. Hopefully the hrrrr and 18z gfs are gonna score a coup of some sorts ......ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 RGEM just caved too. Has measurable overnight Tuesday...more as you go to the east with the 10mm nipping the lower cape and 5mm right around E coastal MA..pushes the measurable overnight back to about Kevin. I like where this is going. Flakes should be flying most of the night Tuesday in eastern sections. I also think the GFS might have the right idea, but the RGEM didn't exactly cave. The 18z GFS was much more wrapped up in the mid-levels and got measurable much further west, passed the MA, NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Towards it lasting into the night Tuesday like the old 18z GFS. Let's see what the GFS does.....the trend here is a friend if it continues.The only trend i see good is for folks maybe on a boat south of Arcadia national park, i ll take the early runs of a strong first short wave , this second one is a wing and a prayer and the closer it gets the more that seems to depend on us getting more of the shaft from firstHere's hoping snow goose is on to something w hrrrr rap and 18z being. Trend. The nam solution at 0z look'd like crap imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Am I missing something? Why is everyone talking about the HRRR........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I honestly dont like where were going w this. Hopefully the hrrrr and 18z gfs are gonna score a coup of some sorts ......ya You're fine. Enjoy your 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 There is nothing not to like if you are keeping expectations reasonable. Hopefullky this isn't something where the 00z gfs regresses after getting weenie hopes up. Yes I know that is a double negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 You're fine. Enjoy your 3-5". I wouldnt lock up more than 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Best run yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS is gonna be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS is game on.....winner winner chicken dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Dam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Ha! Gfs toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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