dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Ok. For the record my range was accurate. Any a lot of other people posted multiple times what their forecast was. And to dendrite - I don't pretend. I fully recognize I don't know much of anything when it comes to weather. There have been instance when I have tried to take what I have learned and apply it, but oftentimes I still apply incorrectly. I never said you did pretend. My comment was more of an "attaboy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Is it decent for others, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS looks good for 3-6" actually for many on here with the exception of the Cape and some parts of SE MA, even has a mini weenie SNE jackpot zone north of ORH in Hubbdave-land up to the monads, then ~6" for downeast and >6" for midcoast maine. Looking solid for just about all of us. Edit: Wow really goes nuts up around Bangor and stuff, goes nuts and drops 12-18" up there, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I don't think the probs look too bad up here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS is so flippin close to something much bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Meh out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Meh out here GFS gives you around 6" of meh, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Is it decent for others, Yea, including Hubby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yea, including Hubby. Only if that reach around gets me at 42 Scared to look at the end of the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS ain't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Well I guess the GFS gives us something to mull over during the dead period. QPF isn't all that impressive...but getting that second SW involved is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 There is a Whole new batch of Precipitation that develops SW of the area almost like it's trying to create a full on Snowstorm for all vs. a passing clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Really I prefer the NAM solution to the GFS verbatim. Precip is too spread out over CT which means lesser rates which is a concern for those of us who get a little toasty in the BL. NAM would yield better rates around here and get moisture out of here before BL temps really become an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That s/w is mighty tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I like the trend on the GFS to a much wetter solution for all, particularly EMA. 0z had us barely in the 0.25-0.5 range, it trend all day to the west and now 0.5-0.75 qfp is just off the deck, in the ocean. Keep moving that west. 0z will be interesting. Each run was signficantly better for Downeast Maine too. They might get 12"+ if the trend holds serve. These little doozey's always seem to perform well for NEMA and and Seacoast NH and ME as they bomb out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 SREFs will always be way too low on the snow probs when the sfc temps creep near freezing. We've had 10" paste bombs here where the SREFs were like 50% for 1" and 10% for 4"....lol. Also, SnowMan is probably the biggest weenie on here these days. It's really two fold there. One is they determine ptype by taking the majority type of the 21 members' dominant ptype. So if snow was dominant ptype in 8 members, sleet in 7, freezing rain in 4, and rain in 2, the SREF would calculate snowfall because most of the members had snow falling. So if it's near freezing and snow doesn't come up as the dominant ptype, it will drastically underplay snowfall amounts. The second issue is the algorithm used to calculate snowfall. I believe (depending on the source) that it uses max saturated T in the column (as opposed to zone omega or standard ratio). This is good because it accounts for riming in cases where the warm nose approaches -5 or so, but bad because in cases near freezing at the surface you can assume the same is going on aloft and we get some poor ratios as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What would Cadillac Mountain in Acadia National Park get if the GFS verified, 16-20 inches? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Just a question - is it possible that this can keep trending towards a more significant solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What would Cadillac Mountain in Acadia National Park get if the GFS verified, 16-20 inches? lol good weenie spot as per this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Just a question - is it possible that this can keep trending towards a more significant solution? Yes, and actually I would see that happening over a lesser and weaker solution, NAM is way too warm in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Water Vapor imagery suggests shortwave is developing over Southwestern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The storm would have to bomb out about 6 hours earlier. There is very little room to get that done but it's possible. The second s/w, which is modeled to be quite impressive, is being robbed some by the first one on the GFS---hence the low QPF rates until DE maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 WOW... GFS is close to a snowstorm in Eastern Ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Is this our first true clipper in like 3-4 years? It's been awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Been traveling and away from net all day, how does it look for GC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Been traveling and away from net all day, how does it look for GC? Meh... GFS has maybe 2-4"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Just a question - is it possible that this can keep trending towards a more significant solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 WOW... GFS is close to a snowstorm in Eastern Ma. We're on more runs worth of shifts away from a much more sizeable event if this were to continue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 We're on more runs worth of shifts away from a much more sizeable event if this were to continue.... Looking at water vapor imagery I think this is closer to becoming an event for Cape Cod, MA then anything else. 18z GFS is inches away from something much more formidable, honestly I'm not buying the warmer solution on the models, with the baroclinic zone offshore expect coastal storm to be further east than NAM and more in line with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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