Lava Rock Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nam looks like a decent hit, Deeper by 4mb 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm not really worried. as in you don't care or think meso's are overdoing warmth near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 1-2 looks like it may be a good call here i might eek out 2-3 but its vaporized by the weekend anyways either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 My question regards the potential interaction with the baroclinic zone and the MSLP. What happens between these two and does the second shortwave induce a low pressure further off the coast, but allows the precip shield to develop over the outer waters and then crash into the coastline as low pressure deepens, or does the first shortwave induced MSLP take over the show enough to keep the baroclinic zone from impacting the coastline? The 12z meso models forecast 3" of QPF along the baroclinic axis, but NAM shows no comma head until further northeast into Downeast ME and Nova Scotia, Canada; does this actually end up impacting the coastline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 as in you don't care or don't agree I don't really buy a warm solution. An even if it did warm, the lift is through the good DGZ. I'll take a thump and a few drops of rain. I sort of like my location for now. Maybe it changes, just my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 i might eek out 2-3 but its vaporized by the weekend anyways either way Same here, if we get warm it will be gone in like half a day here. Looks like whatever falls tomorrow will be slop like. Probably won't stick to roads and what not. Like last Tuesday possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 as in you don't care or think meso's are overdoing warmth near the coast. For me, it's both. How many times have we seen it snow with temps in the low/mid 30s when it's cold aloft? A ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 2-4"? 3-5" ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I don't really buy a warm solution. An even if it did warm, the lift is through the good DGZ. I'll take a thump and a few drops of rain. I sort of like my location for now. Maybe it changes, just my thoughts. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I don't really buy a warm solution. An even if it did warm, the lift is through the good DGZ. I'll take a thump and a few drops of rain. I sort of like my location for now. Maybe it changes, just my thoughts. I think the SREFs are overplaying the low level warmth and screwing up the snow probs. Look a bit low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Before we go crazy, we are forecasting exactly 4.1" for GYX, 4.6" for PWM, 3.6" for CON, just to give you an idea of where we fall in those ranges. Midcoast does actually have 6-8" totals though, they are sitting in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Before we go crazy, we are forecasting exactly 4.1" for GYX, 4.6" for PWM, 3.6" for CON, just to give you an idea of where we fall in those ranges. Midcoast does actually have 6-8" totals though, they are sitting in a good spot. I know ALL about the ranges, I see i got carved out of the 4-6", Mid coast to DE usually do quite well in these............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Man the NAM really torches the lower levels this run. Most of the precip is over though, may end as a brief period of rain. Here are the 2 skews on either end of when it flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I know ALL about the ranges, I see i got carved out of the 4-6", Mid coast to DE usually do quite well in these............. Or you could find the middle of the range and double it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 1-2" if I don't rain. This one I think is going to jackpot well north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Bob, where is that sounding for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Didn't see it posted, but the ec ens are juicier than the op. 0.25" runs from about HUL-GNR-1P1-VSF-ORH-GON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Bob, where is that sounding for? West Bridgewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 1-2" if I don't rain. This one I think is going to jackpot well north of me. This NAM run is crazy with the low level warmth. 50F almost reaches Montauk Point and Block Island as the low passes. SE MA looks very toasty as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Or you could find the middle of the range and double it. 3-5" sound reasonable right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Didn't see it posted, but the ec ens are juicier than the op. 0.25" runs from about HUL-GNR-1P1-VSF-ORH-GONMaybe tickle our way to advisory level where I am at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 i'll take whatever it is the RPM is drinking. first wave gives a nice snow, then a follow up wave which keeps light snow going through the day on Wednesday from BOS to the Cape. that is a weenie model. every-other-run it does something comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Didn't see it posted, but the ec ens are juicier than the op. 0.25" runs from about HUL-GNR-1P1-VSF-ORH-GON Just based on surface low track it looked better, But that's all i can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 West Bridgewater. LMAO I was googling for last 3 minutes zero'ing in on lat/ longitudes and last place I was at was east bridgewater and it was just west....and I thought nahhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Just based on surface low track it looked better, But that's all i can seeI like fluff, but considering what lies ahead this weekend I want staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This NAM run is crazy with the low level warmth. 50F almost reaches Montauk Point and Block Island as the low passes. SE MA looks very toasty as well. Euro 2m was toasty too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Maybe tickle our way to advisory level where I am at Whether or not you make it there, you have an advisory out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I like fluff, but considering what lies ahead this weekend I want staying power. Could see quite a pack reduction if things don't go so well later this week/weekend, Not much moisture to this pack right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GYX gave my county a Winter Storm Watch. Again, could be subject to change with future model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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