HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Whether or not you make it there, you have an advisory out.Not imby yet. Maybe in 10 minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Could see quite a pack reduction if things don't go so well later this week/weekend, Not much moisture to this pack right nowWe do not toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not imby yet. Maybe in 10 minutes? There's a 100% chance of have an advisory out for this one. http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/ma.php?x=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 We do not toss. image.jpg No we don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 There's a 100% chance of have an advisory out for this one. http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/ma.php?x=1 Hey. It was within 10 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not imby yet. Maybe in 10 minutes? Check their AFD, it lists the zones included. Looks like it will be most of the area outside the Cape/islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 BOX with a couple 4-6 weenie totals in NE Ct up to ORH Storm Total Snow Forecast Click to see WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE Probability 2 Inches of Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 WE USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF TO DERIVE SNOWFALL. HIGHER QPF ISEXPECTED NEAR THE COAST WITH LESS FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR BUT HIGHSNOW RATIOS WILL BE A FACTOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR WHERETEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS SNE TUEWITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO NEAR 40 OVER THE ISLANDS.WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL 2-4 INCHESACROSS MOST OF SNE...LESS FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE IT IS LIKELYTHERE WILL BE ENOUGH BL WARMING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN MID/LATEAFTERNOON. IN FACT ACCUM WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN 1" FOR THEOUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS. AND RAIN/SNOW LINE COULD GET INTO SOUTHERNRI AND SE MA AT THE END OF THE STORM TOWARD TUE EVENING.WHERE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOP...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR 6+ INCHESBUT NO WAY OF KNOWING WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR AND THESE HEAVIERAMOUNTS WOULD BE ISOLATED. CURRENT THINKING IS MAX SNOWFALL MAYEND UP ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MA INTO NE CT AND NW RI...BUT THIS CANCHANGE. THE CONCERN IS HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTING THEEVENING COMMUTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Those SREFs probs look way too far NW. BOX map looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Those SREFs probs look way too far NW. BOX map looks reasonable. It would actually get the rain into areas that are going to be in the teens(sref's) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That's more NE MA not NE CT. Cstl front will hug near BOS I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It would actually get the rain into areas that are going to be in the teens(sref's) Yeah I don't know what they are smoking unless they have an inherent ratio fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Those SREFs probs look way too far NW. BOX map looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Winter weather advisory here for 2-4. Seems a bit bullish with marginal temps, but hope it verifies nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 WE USED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF TO DERIVE SNOWFALL. HIGHER QPF IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST WITH LESS FURTHER IN THE INTERIOR BUT HIGH SNOW RATIOS WILL BE A FACTOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR WHERE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS SNE TUE WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NW TO NEAR 40 OVER THE ISLANDS. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF SNE...LESS FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BL WARMING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN MID/LATE AFTERNOON. IN FACT ACCUM WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN 1" FOR THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS. AND RAIN/SNOW LINE COULD GET INTO SOUTHERN RI AND SE MA AT THE END OF THE STORM TOWARD TUE EVENING. WHERE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOP...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR 6+ INCHES BUT NO WAY OF KNOWING WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR AND THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WOULD BE ISOLATED. CURRENT THINKING IS MAX SNOWFALL MAY END UP ACROSS CENTRAL/NE MA INTO NE CT AND NW RI...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE. THE CONCERN IS HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTING THE EVENING COMMUTE FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 No it doesn't mean that you guys wot see snow...it just seems bullish to have interior ern ma with low probs. I call BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah srfc temps mean ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 No it doesn't mean that you guys wot see snow...it just seems bullish to have interior ern ma with low probs. I call BS. I'm actually surprised BOX didn't end up going with a little more snow for eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah I don't know what they are smoking unless they have an inherent ratio fetish.They always hit the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 No it doesn't mean that you guys wot see snow...it just seems bullish to have interior ern ma with low probs. I call BS. SREFs will always be way too low on the snow probs when the sfc temps creep near freezing. We've had 10" paste bombs here where the SREFs were like 50% for 1" and 10% for 4"....lol. Also, SnowMan is probably the biggest weenie on here these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 SREFs will always be way too low on the snow probs when the sfc temps creep near freezing. We've had 10" paste bombs here where the SREFs were like 50% for 1" and 10% for 4"....lol. Also, SnowMan is probably the biggest weenie on here these days. Look no further to this last storm. But I know it may be a resolution and ratio issue too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 SREFs will always be way too low on the snow probs when the sfc temps creep near freezing. We've had 10" paste bombs here where the SREFs were like 50% for 1" and 10% for 4"....lol. Also, SnowMan is probably the biggest weenie on here these days. I think the questions I ask are mistaken as weenie questions when I am really just trying to learn lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think the questions I ask are mistaken as weenie questions when I am really just trying to learn lolQuestions are better than pretending to know something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think the questions I ask are mistaken as weenie questions when I am really just trying to learn lol Nah, questions are fine, its how we all learn...its more like posting a hot dog at a valid comment on the SREFs and telling us every 15 minutes that you are forecasting 10-14" for southern NH last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This is another one of those times when I feel like the winter weather advisory should just be an impact based product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nah, questions are fine, its how we all learn...its more like posting a hot dog at a valid comment on the SREFs and telling us every 15 minutes that you are forecasting 10-14" for southern NH last storm. Ok. For the record my range was accurate. Any a lot of other people posted multiple times what their forecast was. And to dendrite - I don't pretend. I fully recognize I don't know much of anything when it comes to weather. There have been instance when I have tried to take what I have learned and apply it, but oftentimes I still apply incorrectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS just went RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NE CT hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Well confirms my don't worry wen ma lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 2nd s/w FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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