tim Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I think low temps on the island will fall below the current forecast mins early on, then level out later. This usually happens when the wind is shifting to the south rather than east, so it could be a little different tonight, but forecasts for similar nights are very timing sensitive. A few hours of light winds and clear skies after sunset are all it takes to blow the temp forecast. The high clouds over PA (and timing of when they get here) are part of the forecast problem, Personally, I think we get down to at least freezing early tonight. correct you are ! (well at least out here) KFOX down to 28*..(they dropped 16* in 2 hours !) ..i'm currently @ 34.0* here in Eastport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Westhampton is already down to 28. Yet the surrounding weatherbug stations are in the mid/upper 30's, something seems off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Westhampton is already down to 28. Yet the surrounding weatherbug stations are in the mid/upper 30's, something seems off. BNL is down to 29 also with radiational cooling. http://wx1.bnl.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Westhampton is already down to 28. Yet the surrounding weatherbug stations are in the mid/upper 30's, something seems off. ...actually its pretty normal when you have optimal radiational cooling conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 correct you are ! (well at least out here) KFOX down to 28*..(they dropped 16* in 2 hours !) ..i'm currently @ 34.0* here in Eastport. Now down to 32 here (6:40PM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Westhampton is already down to 28. Yet the surrounding weatherbug stations are in the mid/upper 30's, something seems off. FOK is an exception. If you want radiational cooling, you can't get better then FOK. Places that radiate as good as FOK on LI are virtually non existent with the exception of one or two places. 38 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 38 here...34 was my low this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 29 at my parent's house in Muttontown. Radiational cooling doing well out there. http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=CW0028 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 20 was the low here... Our growing season ended a few weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Already 4F below my low last night.31.2F, way below forecast of 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 37 now with some high cloudiness... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Been stuck at 33-34 for almost 2 hrs now, and im overcast. Dropped like a rock when the sun went down though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 29.5 here-seeing some clouds off to the SW now, but still slowly dropping...my guess is we level off and start to rise a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Chris, NYC recorded NELY winds all night; that may have something to do with it. Really didn't end up being the ideal wind direction as progged. Unimpressive lows all around due to wind. Only 35F here this morning, was 29.7F a week ago. Yep, I knew once the park went steady close to midnight and actually went up a degree it wasn't happening. Like you mentioned, we always get the post-midnight drop of a few degrees, but we started at 38-39 instead of 34-35. The NE winds made that drop even less pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Temps actually rising here in Queens, hit 39 around 9pm, now up to 41, with E/NE winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 We actually had the Highest pressure recorded this year at my weather station 30.66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Temps actually rising here in Queens, hit 39 around 9pm, now up to 41, with E/NE windswas down to 35 early this evening.. now up to 38.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Youz guyz see this?: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 One of the oddest storm evolutions that I can remember on the Euro. That's a miller B that cuts off. Surface temps are in the upper 30's for our region during most of that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 The dry pattern rolls on with some showers ahead of the front this week. Driest falls in NYC 3.50...2013...so far 4.00...1908 4.67...1909 4.93...1881 4.97...1931 5.02...1879 5.32...1965 5.76...1901 5.77...1941 5.83...1914 5.96...1948 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 The dry pattern rolls on with some showers ahead of the front this week. gfs_namer_168_precip_ptot.gif Driest falls in NYC 3.50...2013...so far 4.00...1908 4.67...1909 4.93...1881 4.97...1931 5.02...1879 5.32...1965 5.76...1901 5.77...1941 5.83...1914 5.96...1948 The 00z Euro was quite a bit wetter than the GFS thanks to that cut off low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Not much ensemble support for that fantasy D 10 Nor easter on the Euro. Any other models have it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Not much ensemble support for that fantasy D 10 Nor easter on the Euro. Any other models have it? I agree. I think there's about a one in twenty chance of it. And if it happened, I don't think there'd be any cold air to go with it. We'd be flooded with warm air off of the Atlantic ocean. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I agree. I think there's about a one in twenty chance of it. And if it happened, I don't think there'd be any cold air to go with it. We'd be flooded with warm air off of the Atlantic ocean. WX/PT I'd be happy with it for 2 reasons, finally get some rain and actually have a real storm. The lack of anything the last few months has me concerned for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Not much ensemble support for that fantasy D 10 Nor easter on the Euro. Any other models have it? I see no justification for it at all. There's a +NAO, -PNA, and overall fast flow that would strongly argue against major amplification like this. I think this is just a hiccup run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 I see no justification for it at all. There's a +NAO, -PNA, and overall fast flow that would strongly argue against major amplification like this. I think this is just a hiccup run. And what happens when the 12z run has it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 And what happens when the 12z run has it? Then without the -NAO or +PNA or some mechanism to slow down the progressive pattern, I'll still think it's completely out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Temps running on the high side today. Forecast is low 50s but already up to 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 Does anyone have a list of first freeze dates for Newark and how yesterdays freeze ranked on the list? The last few years have been on the early side there for post 1980's climo around here. 11-04-13.....32 11-06-12.....27 10-31-11.....32 you'll find it here... http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 5, 2013 Share Posted November 5, 2013 12z GFS took a step towards the 00z Euro at day ten. Despite the fact that it doesn't cut off the system like what the Euro showed, it does have the system. The GFS now gives most stations over 2" of QPF with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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