Sundog Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 It will be interesting to see if the mid to late part of the month stays dry enough for NYC to finish with a top 10 driest fall. The dates on the list were a very long time ago. Driest falls in NYC 3.50...2013...so far 4.00...1908 4.67...1909 4.93...1881 4.97...1931 5.02...1879 5.32...1965 5.76...1901 5.77...1941 5.83...1914 5.96...1948 A cooler world supporting a less juicy atmosphere leading to the possibility of drier seasons. No wonder they are from another era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 winter precipitation after the driest Falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 I didn't think we would reach 70, saw the potential but thought similar to yesterday that clouds would hinder the 70 readings. Getting too dry out there and still wonder when the switch will flip to very wet... When or IF. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 winter precipitation after the driest Falls Central Park Stats for corresponding winters: 3 AN Snowfall Winters (1901-1902/1914-1915/1948-1949) 4 BN Snowfall Winters (1908-1909/1931-1932/1941-1942/1965-1966) 1 Near Normal Snowfall Winter (1909-1910) Average for all 8 winters: 23.86" of Snowfall (Below Average). http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/monthseasonsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Warlock approves of the recent mild stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Is that sep/oct/nov or astronomical autumn? Yeah, it's Sept/Oct/Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 The raw model temperature data gets NYC down close to freezing Monday morning. It would be the second year in a row with a freeze by November 7th if we can pull it off. Here are the freezes by November 7th in NYC back to 1960 from Uncle's list: 11-06-12 10-31-88 10-27-76 10-31-75 10-20-72 10-23-69 11-04-66 10-29-65 11-07-62 11-07-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Despite the mild weather overall, some very nice chill is coming tomorrow and Monday, I don't think anyone is getting out of the 40s on Monday. The dry weather could also help with the overnight lows as they could be a bit colder than forecast. Don mentioned that we could get stronger although brief shots of cold weather even if the winter is above normal overall because the arctic is colder than in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 We are def at peak color here in north central jersey. Colors have been very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 We are def at peak color here in north central jersey. Colors have been very impressive It's the best color I've seen around here in years. Spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 It's the best color I've seen around here in years. Spectacular. Guess the warm weather and lack of rain didn't hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Guess the warm weather and lack of rain didn't hurt The foliage got off to a great start because of ideal conditions in September, it then slowed down the first half of October because of the warmth but made a major comeback with more ideal conditions the second half of October. The dry weather actually aided the foliage this season instead of harming it probably because the very dry conditions began in September rather than July and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Sunday night will be the coldest night we have had all fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 The foliage got off to a great start because of ideal conditions in September, it then slowed down the first half of October because of the warmth but made a major comeback with more ideal conditions the second half of October. The dry weather actually aided the foliage this season instead of harming it probably because the very dry conditions began in September rather than July and August. Not here its been dry since July. The colors here I think are the best ever. Even trees like Norway Maple that usualy arent great are on fire right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 We are def at peak color here in north central jersey. Colors have been very impressive Strongly agree. The dry weather and cool nights have worked wonders. Peak occurring now here as oaks have turned in the past 48 hours. Nice reds and oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Not here its been dry since July. The colors here I think are the best ever. Even trees like Norway Maple that usualy arent great are on fire right now! We were lucky here in Jersey in the summer. It was a bad t-storm season, but we had plenty of showers and downpours all summer. It was the first time in years that the lawns stayed green all summer. Then of course it went super dry in September and October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 The raw model temperature data gets NYC down close to freezing Monday morning. It would be the second year in a row with a freeze by November 7th if we can pull it off. Here are the freezes by November 7th in NYC back to 1960 from Uncle's list: 11-06-12 10-31-88 10-27-76 10-31-75 10-20-72 10-23-69 11-04-66 10-29-65 11-07-62 11-07-60 I'll check my list...1974 had three straight in October starting 10/19...I was thirteen in 1962 and remember seeing ice that morning on puddles while walking to school on 11/07...November 1962 was cold and had a winter storm with snow to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 I'll check my list...1974 had three straight in October starting 10/19...I was thirteen in 1962 and remember seeing ice that morning on puddles while walking to school on 11/07...November 1962 was cold and had a winter storm with snow to rain... I forgot to include that one from the October thread that you posted. I can still remember all the cold leading up to and including the little ice age in 76-77 when I just turned 10. http://www.miamiherald.com/2009/02/03/886359/jan-19-1977-the-day-it-snowed.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Perfect northerly winds to get cold air down the Hudson Valley. This kind of flow and high position has been missing during recent winters when low temperatures have been underperforming. We haven't seen winter patterns like this since 2004 when we got to 1 degree on a northerly flow in NYC. Maybe we can finally break the 5 degree barrier this winter if these highs build down right over the Lakes instead of to far to our SW over the Plains. This type of -EPO pattern is great at building Arctic highs down from the Arctic toward our area. Just like at the huge -EPO block of recent days and the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 What's the record low at KNYC tonight? With northerly winds I think they have a chance at 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 GFS and ECM continue the dry pattern with less than 0.50 of precip over the next 8 days. As others have said the dryness will aid the cold at night and warmth during the day. Roller coaster pattern continues into the foreseeable future as cold shots quickly moderate to a 2 day warmup then we cool again. Likely overall above normal but some stronger cool mixed in between 11/3 and 11/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 What's the record low at KNYC tonight? With northerly winds I think they have a chance at 32F. 25 (1879) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 25 (1879) Ok thanks, no shot at all for reaching that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 GFS QPF thru D10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Ok thanks, no shot at all for reaching that! Bring back the 1879 landscape and you have a shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 25 (1879) on the way to one of the warmer winters of that era... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 GFS and ECM continue the dry pattern with less than 0.50 of precip over the next 8 days. As others have said the dryness will aid the cold at night and warmth during the day. Roller coaster pattern continues into the foreseeable future as cold shots quickly moderate to a 2 dahe y warmup then we cool again. Likely overall above normal but some stronger cool mixed in between 11/3 and 11/13. One would think the low precip pattern will reverse at some point in the next several months given the very +SSTA off the Atlantic coast. Once the mean jet position moves into our region for DJF we'll see more baroclinic / thermal gradient induced waves of storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 GFS QPF thru D10 I'd be thrilled if we could actually get close to that .75 shown over text 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 One would think the low precip pattern will reverse at some point in the next several months given the very +SSTA off the Atlantic coast. Once the mean jet position moves into our region for DJF we'll see more baroclinic / thermal gradient induced waves of storminess. Agreed - its just a matter of time, let hope its before the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I'd be thrilled if we could actually get close to that .75 shown over text 10 days. we'll see how well we do with the front coming this Friday which is the next shot at meaningful precip. Ahead of there wed-fri look very warm with departures running +10 or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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