ADKweather27 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 With the miss tonight, it could be 2 weeks + before we attempt this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 With the miss tonight, it could be 2 weeks + before we attempt this again. I agree. Latest CFSv2 weeklies showing a big +EPO and East Coast ridge for middle of this month: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Not too shabby considering the coldest temperature at JFK by November 4th is 30 degrees. RERJFKRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY757 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY...A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 34 DEGREES WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY.THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 34 SET IN 1966 AND 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Except for the Bronx, Growing Season still continues for NYC,LI, and Eastern Union County. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 630 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013 ...THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED FOR COASTAL CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND PORTIONS OF URBAN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK CITY... AS OF THIS MORNING...NOVEMBER 4TH...MOST LOCATIONS IN HUDSON AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ESSEX AND BERGEN COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY...THE BRONX AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NEW YORK...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FAIRFIELD...NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX IN CONNECTICUT EXPERIENCED SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FROST AND FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THESE AREAS HAS ENDED AND WILL RESUME DURING OUR NEXT GROWING SEASON IN THE SPRING. NOTE THAT FROST ADVISORIES...FREEZE WATCHES AND FREEZE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...LONG ISLAND AND THE REMAINING BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY UNTIL THEIR GROWING SEASON ENDS. ..even KFOX only got down to 35*..wind was too busy last nite. 37* here in eastport.. ..dryness is the concern here on the east end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 The LGA-NYC relationship was different this time for what we normally see on northerly flow CAA. Most of the time it seems like LGA and NYC have the same low or LGA is warmer. This time NYC made to 35 and LGA got down to 34. It's interesting considering LGA wind crossed the warmer East River first. All the MOS output had LGA warmer than NYC. The NWS also had LGA warmer in their low temperature forecasts. ...NEW YORK CITY...CENTRAL PARK, NYSUNNY PTCLDY MOCLDY SHWRS SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY32/47 39/53 46/62 55/68 45/53 40/56 42/5600/00 10/00 00/00 10/60 70/10 00/10 20/10LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYSUNNY PTCLDY MOCLDY SHWRS SUNNY PTCLDY PTCLDY36/48 41/55 47/63 57/68 46/53 42/56 46/5600/00 10/00 00/00 10/60 70/10 00/10 20/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 00z Euro last night had a weak little miller B valid next Sunday that really takes off once well offshore. Even though surface temps look too warm, 850 temps look like a close call. Something to watch in an otherwise boring pattern. The 00z GGEM has a much stronger, more well organized system as development occurs further south. The GFS wants nothing to do with any of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 00z Euro last night had a weak little miller B valid next Sunday that really takes off once well offshore. Even though surface temps look too warm, 850 temps look like a close call. Something to watch in an otherwise boring pattern. The 00z GGEM has a much stronger, more well organized system as development occurs further south. The GFS wants nothing to do with any of it. The Euro continues the dry pattern through the next 10 days with only some showers on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 The Euro continues the dry pattern through the next 10 days with only some showers on Thursday. It still has the miller B on Sunday even though it keeps the precip to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 The grass has been dead since mid October even before the growing season has officially ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 The grass has been dead since mid October even before the growing season has officially ended. Its fine with me. If we're going to have a drought I'd rather it be now than in the Spring or summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Its fine with me. If we're going to have a drought I'd rather it be now than in the Spring or summer. Sure absolutely, you wouldn't want to see grass like hay deep into Spring or Summer, not to mention the high evaporative rates would only enhance the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Bore fest continues on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Bore fest continues on the 12z GFS it's unreal. I've never seen anything this bad. 01-02 and 11-12 were bad, but I don't recall the boring stuff hitting Aug/Sept/Oct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 When is the last time that we went the entire Autumn without being affected at least once by a coastal storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 NYC's top 10 driest autumns are all from 1965 or earlier. Right now we need at least a half inch more this month to avoid the top spot but if we get less than 2.5" we'll make the top 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 We'll be lucky to squeeze out a .10 of an inch for the next week or so according to the gfs. Nice cold shot though for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Chris, NYC recorded NELY winds all night; that may have something to do with it. Really didn't end up being the ideal wind direction as progged. Unimpressive lows all around due to wind. Only 35F here this morning, was 29.7F a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 29.8 here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 still solid cold afternoon with temps mostly in the mid 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 22 this morning in Vernon...got to 19 at Sussex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 As I thought, marine influence will always keep LI warmer. 35 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Low here last night was 34. Gusty breeze off the sound kept temps above freezing. I am a bit curious about the OKX statement including the Bronx in the area where the growing season has already ended. Only small parts of the Bronx may have touched freezing last night. On the other hand, here were LI low temps on 10/26: Baiting Hollow - 26 Bridgehampton - 29 Farmingdale - 31 Islip - 32 Shirley - 31 Smithtown - 29 Upton - 30 Westhampton - 20 The freezing temps on 10/26 damaged, but did not kill sensitive plants in my backyard, so I can see the argument for that not having ended the growing season. However, I doubt the Bronx saw nearly as much freezing temps last night as most of the island has seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 NWS forecasting a low of 40 tonight for NYC. Seems a tad warm no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salseneca Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Euro Ens showing some cooler changes back end of next week. We've seen the noon model runs both GFS and Euro bringing in some cooler changes for next week but still hardly anything to get too excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 NWS forecasting a low of 40 tonight for NYC. Seems a tad warm no? seems high--HP right overhead and low dews...unless warmer air is coming in at some point would think NYC is going to be low to mid 30's IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 NWS forecasting a low of 40 tonight for NYC. Seems a tad warm no? lol its 43 now here in Queens - unless we get more of an easterly wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I think low temps on the island will fall below the current forecast mins early on, then level out later. This usually happens when the wind is shifting to the south rather than east, so it could be a little different tonight, but forecasts for similar nights are very timing sensitive. A few hours of light winds and clear skies after sunset are all it takes to blow the temp forecast. The high clouds over PA (and timing of when they get here) are part of the forecast problem, Personally, I think we get down to at least freezing early tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 High clouds overspreading from the west are the primary detriment for cold lows tonight. Otherwise tonight would be colder for radiational cooling locations. Most will reach their lows before midnight before slowly rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Had a low of 32.1 last night in SE Bergen County for my coldest night so far this season. The temp drop seemed to really slow down after midnight. Hopefully this dry pattern flips on a dime just in time for winter like all of the recent mini-droughts that we've had. I'd rather take my chances on temps, than continue with this lack of precip since July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Dropping like a rock again..my forecast low was dropped from 36 to 33 but I'll hit that in the next few hours and probably level off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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