November 2013 Observations & Discussions

[Brian5671]

My weenie snow maps for the 12z GFS show over 30" for eastern PA

Amazing how fast things change.  Just 2 days ago we were looking dry and warm for 15 days

[nzucker]

And the GFS drops the hammer in the LR. PV comes into Southeast Canada with wicked cold air. 

[donsutherland1]

The 11/6 12z run of the GFS has almost a November 20-30, 1989 look in the extended range. After a very cold end to November and prolonged period of cold through much of December, the pattern broke and winter was all but over.  Both the 0z ensembles and teleconnection analogs argue that the operational run of the GFS is overdone with the cold. The 12z ensembles are not yet available. It will be interesting to see how things play out.

[IsentropicLift]

The 500mb setup on the GFS reminds me of late February 2003.

[Brian5671]

And the GFS drops the hammer in the LR. PV comes into Southeast Canada with wicked cold air. 

Will be interesting to see if the GEFS support that or the Euro in a bit. 

[supermeh]

ggem has a similar evolution as the gfs to a certain extent for next week. it also has snow into nyc

[donsutherland1]

And the GFS drops the hammer in the LR. PV comes into Southeast Canada with wicked cold air. 

I hope it's right. Ensemble support would be helpful.

[IsentropicLift]

12z GGEM has non stop precip from hour 168 through hr 240 with two separate lows back to back.

[IsentropicLift]

The soundings on the GFS are quite cold. Bufkit shows surface temps in the upper 20's over interior northern NJ with ratios of at least 12:1. Surface temps at KLGA are in the lower to mid 30's.

[user13]

Lol wow...and it begins... The setup with the artic high is pretty

Gfs has been doing well this year, lets see how it handles the winter pattern now.

[user13]

The soundings on the GFS are quite cold. Bufkit shows surface temps in the upper 20's over interior northern NJ with ratios of at least 12:1. Surface temps at KLGA are in the lower to mid 30's.

Yea the setup might be to early in the year for the coast but after the last two years its not out of the question so lets get to work.

[IsentropicLift]

Yea the setup might be to early in the year for the coast but after the last two years its not out of the question so lets get to work.

That setup is really nice for everyone (For November). It's an over running event followed by a coastal. Has the potential for a long duration event as well. I think verbatim given that arctic high to the north, the coast would likely change over to snow.

[Allsnow]

Tuesday night the city will have a good chance of going below 32. That's a very cold airmass

[user13]

That setup is really nice for everyone (For November). It's an over running event followed by a coastal. Has the potential for a long duration event as well. I think verbatim given that arctic high to the north, the coast

would likely change over to snow.

Yea it is a beautiful setup if the gfs is right....its funny i just posted yesterday on how we are due for a major overrunning event in the other topic and then this thing shows up.

[nzucker]

That setup is really nice for everyone (For November). It's an over running event followed by a coastal. Has the potential for a long duration event as well. I think verbatim given that arctic high to the north, the coast would likely change over to snow.

I think it's probably the opposite looking at the GFS verbatim: the coast probably starts as snow and then changes over to rain as the low approaches too close. Also, the arctic high is weakening as the long-duration storm continues so it might be a snow-->rain situation. Definitely some frozen in there, though. 

[Weathergun]

12z GFS ensembles. Only 2 look anything like the OP run for the storm next week. I do like the large sprawling cold high, however:

 

[Guest Imperator]

Heres the text ouput for the 12z GFS run:

 

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: JFK    LAT=  40.65 LON=  -73.78 ELE=    23

                                            12Z NOV06   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
WED 12Z 06-NOV  10.1     7.7    1030      80       4             580     555   
WED 18Z 06-NOV  14.8     8.5    1026      64       4    0.00     581     559   
THU 00Z 07-NOV  13.2     9.8    1023      79      13    0.00     579     561   
THU 06Z 07-NOV  14.2     8.4    1018      94      19    0.00     575     560   
THU 12Z 07-NOV  15.8    10.1    1012      97      42    0.04     569     559   
THU 18Z 07-NOV  15.4     7.5    1009      80      78    0.04     564     556   
FRI 00Z 08-NOV   8.9     1.3    1013      74      13    0.01     557     546   
FRI 06Z 08-NOV   5.8    -5.2    1014      73      22    0.00     549     538   
FRI 12Z 08-NOV   4.0    -5.3    1016      76      35    0.00     540     527   
FRI 18Z 08-NOV   9.1    -5.5    1016      51      32    0.00     542     529   
SAT 00Z 09-NOV   7.2    -5.3    1021      60      21    0.00     550     533   
SAT 06Z 09-NOV   4.8    -5.5    1024      73      10    0.00     556     537   
SAT 12Z 09-NOV   3.4    -4.2    1026      82       8    0.00     560     539   
SAT 18Z 09-NOV   8.2    -1.7    1024      55      89    0.00     559     539   
SUN 00Z 10-NOV   7.1     1.2    1023      64      67    0.00     559     540   
SUN 06Z 10-NOV   6.9     1.7    1021      71      60    0.00     559     542   
SUN 12Z 10-NOV   4.7     2.1    1019      84      46    0.00     562     547   
SUN 18Z 10-NOV  11.7     2.4    1017      62      17    0.00     562     548   
MON 00Z 11-NOV   8.2    -2.8    1021      68       8    0.00     561     544   
MON 06Z 11-NOV   5.2    -2.7    1023      73       8    0.00     558     540   
MON 12Z 11-NOV   3.4    -0.7    1025      80      26    0.00     558     539   
MON 18Z 11-NOV   9.8    -0.2    1020      55      76    0.00     557     541   
TUE 00Z 12-NOV   9.0    -4.1    1022      58      59    0.00     555     537   
TUE 06Z 12-NOV   1.9    -6.0    1026      66      16    0.00     553     533   
TUE 12Z 12-NOV   0.8    -6.1    1028      72      22    0.00     554     532   
TUE 18Z 12-NOV   4.8    -6.5    1026      50      76    0.00     554     533   
WED 00Z 13-NOV   4.2    -6.8    1028      54      84    0.00     555     533   
WED 06Z 13-NOV   3.2    -7.3    1028      62      97    0.00     554     532   
WED 12Z 13-NOV   2.9    -8.1    1028      69      99    0.01     555     533   
WED 18Z 13-NOV   2.5    -5.4    1026      79     100    0.09     555     535   
THU 00Z 14-NOV   2.3    -2.4    1024      94      98    0.21     557     538   
THU 06Z 14-NOV   4.4    -1.3    1019      93      96    0.14     557     541   
THU 12Z 14-NOV   6.4     0.7    1016      92      87    0.10     555     542   
FRI 00Z 15-NOV   6.4     3.2    1007      93      82    0.30     550     544   
FRI 12Z 15-NOV   1.5     0.2    1012      92      41    0.29     552     543   
SAT 00Z 16-NOV   2.3     3.9    1019      90      11    0.00     564     548   
SAT 12Z 16-NOV  -0.2     4.1    1022      86      61    0.00     565     547   
SUN 00Z 17-NOV   1.9     5.3    1023      82      62    0.00     570     552   
SUN 12Z 17-NOV   5.0     6.8    1021      85      75    0.01     572     555   
MON 00Z 18-NOV   9.4     9.4    1010      96      88    0.56     569     561   
MON 12Z 18-NOV   6.2     8.4    1009      93      32    0.25     566     559   
TUE 00Z 19-NOV   7.4     4.7    1008      90      34    0.01     558     551   
TUE 12Z 19-NOV   1.9    -3.4    1012      85      13    0.01     552     542   
WED 00Z 20-NOV  -0.6   -11.1    1014      79      19    0.01     535     524   
WED 12Z 20-NOV  -3.0   -13.0    1014      74      45    0.02     526     515   
THU 00Z 21-NOV  -2.3   -12.9    1014      75      83    0.03     522     512   
THU 12Z 21-NOV  -4.4   -13.6    1017      78      45    0.04     527     514   
FRI 00Z 22-NOV  -2.9    -8.4    1016      73      64    0.01     538     525   
FRI 12Z 22-NOV  -0.6    -4.0    1014      75      42    0.01     543     532   



 

[Allsnow]

The euro at 00z would prob give our area some flakes next week. Also def a good shot for the city to see below 32 Tuesday night

[salseneca]

The GFS Ensemble not showing that cold air mass dropping down like the Operational but at least gives us something to keep an eye on

[earthlight]

The GEFS are not as enthused with the big blocking and potential for snow in New England in the long range. But the average 2m temperature anomalies are still leaning colder during that time period.

 

[Allsnow]

Euro looks pretty chilly Saturday night. 20's outside the city

[SnoSki14]

I was pleasantly surprised with the 12z gfs, any snow is still a pipe dream right now. The arctic high and possibly well below normal temperatures are definitely gaining traction though and would lead to a very December like air mass, which of course is nearly cold enough for snow. 

[Allsnow]

Hr 156 the euro does not get us out of the 30's, artic high drops in

[bluewave]

Euro has low in Texas panhandle at 156.

 

 

[Allsnow]

Hr 162 light snow from St. Louis to Cleveland. Very cold airmass

[bluewave]

Precip to South Jersey at 168.

[IsentropicLift]

850mb temps are -10 C at hr 168. -12 100 miles NW of NYC.

[Allsnow]

Precip to South Jersey at 168.

Looks like it might get squashed this run

[IsentropicLift]

How often does the VA Beach area see snow in mid November? Euro has it at 174.

[Allsnow]

How often does the VA Beach area see snow in mid November? Euro has it at 174.

Surface is way to warm for them