NorthShoreWx Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Very dark skies, looks like a stormy summer afternoon. Can see the rain pouring in skies to the north If you are looking up this way, nothing reaching the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 If you are looking up this way, nothing reaching the ground here. Raining here pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Crazy winds and somehow no advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 I really don't think upper 50's in mid nov qualifies as Indian summer lol. Glancing at the 12z euro I are upper 50's as the maybe a day or two close to 60 Gfs was alot warmer than upper 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Gusting over 33 here in Queens - lol more than I got in any t storm this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Nasty outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Would say with this wind 80% of the leaves are off the trees. Euro still looks good for some flakes tuesday morning, after that we look to get mild by weeks end. Around the 20th looks to be our next shot of chilly air. All the airports should finally see 32 or below this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Would say with this wind 80% of the leaves are off the trees. Euro still looks good for some flakes tuesday morning, after that we look to get mild by weeks end. Around the 20th looks to be our next shot of chilly air. All the airports should finally see 32 or below this week. Now that will be more like typical Indian summer weather after this mid weeks chill and widespread below freezing temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Go find an observation with 45 mph gusts. I dont think you will find one which is why there is no advisory. Crazy winds and somehow no advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Coating of snow certainly looks possible Monday night/Tuesday morning. Haven't focused much on it with the drama of the "storm that wasn't" followed by the Philly sub-forum mess... but probably rain changing to snow. Not a lot but could be the first accum of the season into the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Coating of snow certainly looks possible Monday night/Tuesday morning. Haven't focused much on it with the drama of the "storm that wasn't" followed by the Philly sub-forum mess... but probably rain changing to snow. Not a lot but could be the first accum of the season into the I-95 corridor. Going to be tough to get a coating, a quantification I hate considering it is not an official measurement, considering ground temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Going to be tough to get a coating, a quantification I hate considering it is not an official measurement, considering ground temperatures. Well to me, a "coating" is a measurable amount less than an inch. A "dusting" to me includes up to 0.1". So 0.1" to 0.9" would be a coating to me. The cold GFS would suggest it should get cold enough for it to happen, especially on grass and other elevated surfaces like cars etc. I wouldn't expect anything on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Well to me, a "coating" is a measurable amount less than an inch. A "dusting" to me includes up to 0.1". So 0.1" to 0.9" would be a coating to me. The cold GFS would suggest it should get cold enough for it to happen, especially on grass and other elevated surfaces like cars etc. I wouldn't expect anything on roads. Moisture is limited. But the 6z GFS still shows some modest omega in the mid-level levels and some steeping low-level lapse rates. Some hints also had at some sound/ocean enhancement too. So I wouldn't be surprised,if this happened for parts of I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 First flakes and frz for NYC did not look possible a week ago. I thought it would take a few more weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 One thing for sure, winter feel pending for a few days with wind and cold for this time of year. Warm-up to follow for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Caution as always with the NAM. The 12z NAM ISP sounding today, supports a burst of snow tomorrow morning over LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Well to me, a "coating" is a measurable amount less than an inch. A "dusting" to me includes up to 0.1". So 0.1" to 0.9" would be a coating to me. The cold GFS would suggest it should get cold enough for it to happen, especially on grass and other elevated surfaces like cars etc. I wouldn't expect anything on roads. It'll be nice to see, if it happens. Second November in a row with measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 First flakes and frz for NYC did not look possible a week ago. I thought it would take a few more weeks Per NAM and GFS, It does look now like there is a good chance of snow showers region-wide as the cold front comes through late tonight into tomorrow. There could be a dusting to an inch. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 NAM clown maps show no accumulation anywhere in the region. Um, they do. It's a little, I doubt much accumulation with a warm ground, but I think flakes will fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 While not comparing this at all to last year, Nov 7-8 snow, and year before than October snow, were the ground temps too warm then? If it snows a little bit at night or around daybreak, ground temps on the road will be to warm but if there is actually snow, a coating is certainly possible in a few spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Um, they do. It's a little, I doubt much accumulation with a warm ground, but I think flakes will fly. Okay, my maps show nothing. Different source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 While not comparing this at all to last year, Nov 7-8 snow, and year before than October snow, were the ground temps too warm then? If it snows a little bit at night or around daybreak, ground temps on the road will be to warm but if there is actually snow, a coating is certainly possible in a few spots. This very light snow at best will likely only stick to cold surfaces like car tops that haven't been run for several hours. Last year and the year before the snow came down heavy enough that it wasn't an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Rgem also has a little snow for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Useless drivel as usual at this forum. 2-4 flakes with 6 flake lollies. In any case, if you actually take a look at the model forecast, it will be hard pressed that there will be liquid precip with dew points in the 20s and temps in the mid 30s. The real issue here is if there is actually a good annafrontal precip band as depicted by the nam and to a degree the GFS. As we have seen with many other fronts recently, the precip dissipates as it moves over. There is a strong jet streak moving overhead as this forecast band moves through so there could be some support. Quick look at the simulated radar on the NAM, and it does show a solid area of precip over SE CT, NYC, and LI tomorrow morning around daybreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 So we'll be able to add 2013 to the list of recent years when many of us see our first flakes of the season before November 15th. October 2008 featured a late month storm where parts of NJ cashed in with more extensive snows across the region in 2011, and 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The 12z GFS has a cutter redeveloping off the coast next Monday. Right now it looks weak and disorganized but that's mainly because the transfer is never fully completed and the primary holds on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The 12z Euro is actually pretty juicy for the frontal passage now. Some areas get over 0.10" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The 12z Euro also has the storm for early next week. Yes it's all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 The 12z Euro is actually pretty juicy for the frontal passage now. Some areas get over 0.10" of QPF. NWS TAFs now have a decent shot at snow for JFK/LGA...I'm somewhat skeptical with a strong downslope component we can see much though... KJFK 111740Z 1118/1224 25013G18KT P6SM SCT150 BKN250 FM111900 22015G23KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250 FM120400 25016G24KT P6SM BKN070 OVC100 FM120800 31014G23KT 5SM -SHRASN BKN020 OVC040 TEMPO 1210/1214 1SM -SN BKN009 OVC012 FM121400 34015G22KT P6SM SCT015 BKN035 OVC080 TEMPO 1214/1216 3SM -SNRA BKN015 FM121600 34016G24KT P6SM SCT035 BKN080 BKN150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Looks like upton is thinking minor accums tmrw am. Comp radar on 18z NAM suggests we see 3-4 hours of light to mod snow (even if we initially start out as rain) as temps fall and winds pick up. Should feel pretty wintry during the AM commute tmrw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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