IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Closed low over Kentucky at hour 180. Most of the precip is still well to our southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Surface is way to warm for them I'm showing surface temps in the 30's with 850's well below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The 500mb cutoff low had to travel with that overrunning precip, because that's when the airmass is cold. The Euro hangs back the cutoff low well southwest of the initial overrunning, so then the flow gets too fast north of it, and it'll eventually just slide out to sea while our airmass moderates. Edit: Or it could wait and then phase with the next trough...but then the airmass is still way too warm at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Looks like it might get squashed this run Energy is stronger and deeper and it appears the euro is just a little delayed and will eventually show a large storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 +NAO would favor a more northern trend. These developments are rather surprising with a +NAO and a very positive AO, but obviously a -EPO overpowers them and it has been proven to have the strongest correlation to cold or warm anomalies. Also I believe last December we saw a -AO and we torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Looks like it might get squashed this run Yep. That Arctic high really means business for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Energy is stronger and deeper and it appears the euro is just a little delayed and will eventually show a large storm. Agreed. Heights are starting to rise at hr 192 and precip is starting to come north. Trough negative tilt at 198. Looks like a secondary popping off the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Temps are going to be way to warm for snow this run at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Agreed. Heights are starting to rise at hr 192 and precip is starting to come north. Trough negative tilt at 198. Looks like a secondary popping off the NC coast. The high is already to our east with a mild onshore flow underneath at 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 I don't know if it's the Arctic high squashing it as much as it is just the flow being too fast. The upstream ridge of our storm rolls over and breaks because of this, sending the cutoff low to the south while the cold airmass we initially had races well ahead of it and away from the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The high is already to our east with a mild onshore flow underneath at 204. Just because it's not snow doesn't mean it doesn't still have a big storm, which it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 This is many days away though so things will change constantly, I think we'll have a nice setup for a cold air mass but not necessarily a storm because of the fast flow, unless things continue to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Just because it's not snow doesn't mean it doesn't still have a big storm, which it does. Not for us on this run. But it's still too early to know how the energy is going to come out under the big high. Plenty of time for the models to eventually settle down and come to a common solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The Euro could have been worse, it still has a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Just because it's not snow doesn't mean it doesn't still have a big storm, which it does. It holds back the energy too long, there is no big storm when we need it. 200 hr fantasy storm is not what we are looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It holds back the energy too long, there is no big storm when we need it. 200 hr fantasy storm is not what we are looking for I am hoping that this is just the Euro hanging back energy too much like it does sometimes at later forecast hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 It holds back the energy too long, there is no big storm when we need it. 200 hr fantasy storm is not what we are looking for I hate rolling ridges in a fast flow. The flow becomes really zonal out west so there is no cold air on the west side of the ridge to keep it in "balance" when the warm air spills in from the south. This makes the ridge unstable and it eventually "breaks" like a wave in the ocean...and when the ridge "breaks", the cutoff low is forced to the south, while our cold airmass escapes to the east. If you loop through the 500mb and vorticity on the Euro you can see this pretty well. The GFS keeps the flow a little slower to the west, allowing the ridge to stay in better balance and not break, allowing the low to actually scoot east instead of being sent to the south. But the ridge still looks pretty unstable and may eventually break, so this is certainly not a stable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The 12z GGEM ensembles look more like the Euro op than the GGEM op or the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The ensemble mean has a faster ejection of the low, but it's hard to tell much of the details in this mean. Individual members may be more helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Will probably be warmer this run, the high is weaker and east at 144 - EDIT: low is more to the east so more cold air to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 18z crushes the interior mid Atlantic with a early season snow storm. It's just a tad to east to crush us. It's very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Wow it just sits there off the coast ...50 miles or so west and mother of god if that verified lol - 32 degree line is clear through central LI on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 18z crushes the interior mid Atlantic with a early season snow storm. It's just a tad to east to crush us. It's very close What a run of early season snows since late October 2008 if this comes to pass here in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Wow it just sits there off the coast ...50 miles or so west and mother of god if that verified lol - 32 degree line is clear through central LI on this run We need the over running to be further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 If more of the ensembles pick it up this run ill start be become bullish for a storm, more so if the 0z holds it. - this would be a nice way to end the dry period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Can't believe I am even diving in to this...but that ridge axis is way too far east on the GFS. The pattern doesn't look amplified enough for a big storm -- if the model has the correct general ideas. The Euro being east and flat isn't too far-fetched if you look at the pattern evolution. There is some room for everything to slow down. The older GFS/CMC were good examples of how that can happen. Guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 Can't believe I am even diving in to this...but that ridge axis is way too far east on the GFS. The pattern doesn't look amplified enough for a big storm -- if the model has the correct general ideas. The Euro being east and flat isn't too far-fetched if you look at the pattern evolution. There is some room for everything to slow down. The older GFS/CMC were good examples of how that can happen. Guess we'll see. Yea good point, its been soo long since I had something to follow so I hope things keep trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2013 Share Posted November 6, 2013 The 18z gfs looks like a mid December snow threat, very cold for this time of year and I agree that it would be something if we got another early season snow event. Some crazy stuff happening in the long range too and an eventual blocking pattern starts to develop though cold is displaced up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Quite a few hits with this storm now with the 18z GEFS. There's one member that looks like it's completely out to lunch. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_18z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The big Pacific amplification during late November 1950 was similar to this set up while the Atlantic is different this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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