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Late July Pattern Change - Wx Discussion


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Top average Max temps at BDL in July:

 

 

1966: 89.2

1955: 88.6

1999: 88.5

2010: 88.4

1995: 88.4

1952: 87.7

1949: 87.7

1994: 87.6

1983: 87.4

2013: 87.4

2011: 87.3

 

 

 

So the maxes were definitely below some of the other big dog Julys known for heat waves.

 

 

Record average minimum at BDL in July:

 

1921: 66.7

1994: 66.6

 

 

and

 

2013: 68.9

 

Absolutely shattering the previous record.

 

Bingo.

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It was brutal and having used a past tense reference makes it even easier to talk about. Gone like a freight train, gone like yesterday, gone like the civil war, shes gone.

 

Yeah, I'm not taking away from the temps...it was just not your normal way of breaking records...which speaks for the ridiculous dewpoints we had. More water vapor/heat capacity of water means temps will not drop much. Might aslo partially explain why temps never got so high...it takes a lot of energy to heat the air with high water content.

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Uh oh.. From Paul at accuwx

I am backing off on the heat returning in the Northeast. The warmer-than-normal departures may come in a different way. The warm nights will return as humidity levels increase again. Heading into late next week into the following week, next week, we notice a slight change in the pattern, a more amplified pattern. The ridge will build again over the Rockies and western Canada in response to the upper trough returning to the western Gulf of Alaska. I would like to see a stronger trough on the models.

This will bring a return of the monsoonal moisture into the Southwest. Also, the heat will build across the West and north-central Rockies during this time. Across the Plains, the trough will deepen and sink fronts a little farther south. Cooler weather will reach the eastern Ohio and Tennessee valleys but have a difficult time reaching the East Coast as the southwest flow looks stronger. That means more humid conditions for the East. Upper heights build across eastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic, but not enough to build the same kind of heat we saw earlier in the month. The humidity and mild nights could start later next week.

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Yeah, I'm not taking away from the temps...it was just not your normal way of breaking records...which speaks for the ridiculous dewpoints we had. More water vapor/heat capacity of water means temps will not drop much. Might aslo partially explain why temps never got so high...it takes a lot of energy to heat the air with high water content.

 

Ironic that Mr. High Humidity is getting so defensive about this... it seems as if this is the way he would WANT to break a record.

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Huh? I'm not defensive at all. We just experienced the hottest month we've ever had. No sugar coating that bad boy

It had the hottest average temperature....but we weren't blazing aoa 100º. It was brutally humid, and nights sucked if you had no a/c. If nobody told me it was the hottest July on record, I wouldn't have guessed.

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Uh oh.. From Paul at accuwx

I am backing off on the heat returning in the Northeast. The warmer-than-normal departures may come in a different way. The warm nights will return as humidity levels increase again. Heading into late next week into the following week, next week, we notice a slight change in the pattern, a more amplified pattern. The ridge will build again over the Rockies and western Canada in response to the upper trough returning to the western Gulf of Alaska. I would like to see a stronger trough on the models.

This will bring a return of the monsoonal moisture into the Southwest. Also, the heat will build across the West and north-central Rockies during this time. Across the Plains, the trough will deepen and sink fronts a little farther south. Cooler weather will reach the eastern Ohio and Tennessee valleys but have a difficult time reaching the East Coast as the southwest flow looks stronger. That means more humid conditions for the East. Upper heights build across eastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic, but not enough to build the same kind of heat we saw earlier in the month. The humidity and mild nights could start later next week.

uh no

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I wouldn't mind a mild September/October if we flipped cooler in November.  The past week and the coming weeks as progged have good timing for me.

 

I'm with you.... we do cooler for Aug, turns warm for a period Sept/Oct, then cycles cooler Nov/Dec.  Average 6 week cycles haha.

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Many of the other record July had highs much hotter. The period of high dews is what really did it with overnight lows astronomically high. That was the biggest reason.

 

Check the last CLMBDL, this July was no different than last July (12 days AOA 90 degress, average high around 87), EXCEPT that the lows averaged 3 degrees warmer than 2012 and around 6 degrees above normal.

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But aren't you basically guaranteed high overnight departures when your daytime highs are running +10 and above.  They go hand-in-hand to me.  It's not bootleg to me at all.  July 14th-20th sticks out to me.  I don't get too many 7 day heatwaves.

 

At BDL there were no 100 degree days, no record highs, and 9 days had high temps which were below average. 

 

July 2013 still easily became the hottest month on record... largely because of all the 88/73 type days. 

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July 2013 is going to end up slightly the coolest July wrt avg max temps in the last 4 years IMBY. Definitely bootleg up here.

 

Same here.  Pending today's numbers (about 75/50), my final avg max of about 76.1 is actually 0.5F under my 16-yr avg, and ranks 10th of 16.  However, the July minima will average about 57.2, which is +3.1F, 2nd mildest, and just 0.4F from 2010.

 

 

A neat fact is it also will end up hottest month ever too, not just hottest July

 

Well, duh!  If one looked at the 100 longest and reasonably complete temperature datasets in New England, I'd be surprised if more than 5 set their warmest month any time but in July.

 

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I should try to come up with a weenie metric somewhat similar to HDD/CDD that calculates daily temp spread relative to climo daily means.

Call it "Weenie Degree Days" or "WDD"

 

Couldn't we do something similar to the DJIA and sum up the daily departure from normal?  The WDD could be a total of every months sum of daily departures.  I wonder how that would work long term?

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Couldn't we do something similar to the DJIA and sum up the daily departure from normal?  The WDD could be a total of every months sum of daily departures.  I wonder how that would work long term?

 

So as an example, I took my own data against my long term normals and summed up every month's departures from normal since May 1985.  The data is kind of interesting and it shows how extreme a month can be compared to normal - not just one given day.  Oh, the departure is in celcius because that's what I keep my records in.

 

This July was a +65 relative to normal.

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Incorporate dews , use a metric, over 65 and under, actually just like CDD

 

The problem is access to that data. 

 

I was thinking another way might be a calculation based on the max or min departure from normal instead of just the average departure from normal.  I have the daily data so I guess I could figure that out.

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So as an example, I took my own data against my long term normals and summed up every month's departures from normal since May 1985.  The data is kind of interesting and it shows how extreme a month can be compared to normal - not just one given day.  Oh, the departure is in celcius because that's what I keep my records in.

 

This July was a +65 relative to normal.

 

Nice!  Dec '89 really jumps out, and what month in '87 was nearly -300?

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Halfway thru our yearly vacation with the wife's family in Cape Breton Nova Scotia. Finally a sunny day, 75/63.

If any of you have been up this way, you'll believe me when I say this is the nicest place (beaches, beer, people, beer, culture, beer, golf, scenery, etc) on the east coast. Inverness/Lake Ainslie area is just spectacular.

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