Tropopause_Fold Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 The downside of the GFS solution is it hangs back a ribbon of moisture along the slowed frontal boundary after the initial sfc low escapes NE...so it leaves us with a pretty sucky Saturday with light to mod rain. Hopefully that doesn't happen. yeah that's not a great way for that to unfold. would probably make for a more unsettled afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I still think the euro and its ensembles make more sense, but we'll see. NAM is on crack. Has not changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I still think the euro and its ensembles make more sense, but we'll see. NAM is on crack. yeah. i don't trust the GFS with a system like this struggling to get it's self together. it's been on the E side of things pretty frequently too the last several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 yeah. i don't trust the GFS with a system like this struggling to get it's self together. it's been on the E side of things pretty frequently too the last several days. I do buy the PRE look, but looks a little too convective-ish off the Cape if you know what I mean. I suppose it could be right...but I'm with you...don't really trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I do buy the PRE look, but looks a little too convective-ish off the Cape if you know what I mean. I suppose it could be right...but I'm with you...don't really trust it. GFS is obessed with doing this. It does it in the winter too frequently during coastals. Gets convection-happy in the warm sector and then leaves the NW side high and dry...totally butchers the conveyor processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 GFS is obessed with doing this. It does it in the winter too frequently during coastals. Gets convection-happy in the warm sector and then leaves the NW side high and dry...totally butchers the conveyor processes. Leaving me with qpf-depletion syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 7/10? as in on a clock?bowling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Leaving me with qpf-depletion syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 That pic says it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 QPF!!.jpg LOL. The symptoms are much less severe in summer than winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Speaking of GFS mistakes... the other night I was looking at some of the big Feb blizzard threads and that was some special bust. Even like 12 hours before that event it had most of CT with like 0.75-1.25" QPF while the ECM/NAM combo was like 3"...we all know how that turned out with widespread 20-40" in CT. It was like Will just said...the convection in the warm sector cannibalizes the NW side precipitation scheme and leaves it too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Speaking of GFS mistakes... the other night I was looking at some of the big Feb blizzard threads and that was some special bust. Even like 12 hours before that event it had most of CT with like 0.75-1.25" QPF while the ECM/NAM combo was like 3"...we all know how that turned out with widespread 20-40" in CT. It was like Will just said...the convection in the warm sector cannibalizes the NW side precipitation scheme and leaves it too dry. yep. GFS also tends to run the actual low too far South and East.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Wow, GFS is pretty far SE. Not much chance for warmth on this run... in the relative sense that is. There was discussion yesterday about the higher DPs making a presence during the thing, and given a defined closed circulation staying SE of the ORH-BOS line, I don't see much hope of that. The 00z Euro came a tick SE of the 12z run. We'll have to see where the next run goes. Also, though the rain would be heavy, the duration of this is fast... That may cut down on flooding some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Speaking of GFS mistakes... the other night I was looking at some of the big Feb blizzard threads and that was some special bust. Even like 12 hours before that event it had most of CT with like 0.75-1.25" QPF while the ECM/NAM combo was like 3"...we all know how that turned out with widespread 20-40" in CT. It was like Will just said...the convection in the warm sector cannibalizes the NW side precipitation scheme and leaves it too dry. Yeah and I think the March 6-8 bust for the GFS was even worse...once inside of 60 hours. It hardly had any precip getting into SNE from the main firehose conveyor. It was giving like a total of half an inch of qpf back to this area. I'm not sure why it does that so frequently, but hopefully it improves on that aspect of progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Interesting to see the NAM so far west ... but (and I am not sure this should apply in summer) the NAM has a NW bias with surface tracks beyond 48 hours -- this run's position up through the Capital District with the vestigial wave could very well be a result of that. But if this run were to prevail, the rain cuts by noon for SNE, S to N, and we are left with 570 dm murk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 ukmet is 2"+ all of SNE...bullseye of 4-5" over S and SE CT thru 12z SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 ukmet is 2"+ all of SNE...bullseye of 4-5" over S and SE CT thru 12z SATSLP track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 ukmet is 2"+ all of SNE...bullseye of 4-5" over S and SE CT thru 12z SATis there a screw zone in the middle like the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 GGEM has quite heavy rain Friday night...esp eastern half of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 SLP track? Looks like right over the Cape. is there a screw zone in the middle like the gfs? no. has NYC area with ~3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 maybe some better data will get put into the models now Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 17:14ZDate: June 5, 2013Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 1Observation Number: 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Euro is a deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Euro is a deluge. Wow, yeah that is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Euro is a deluge.Deep details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Start/end times on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Euro FTL on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Deep details It's got widespread 2-3" for SNE on may maps...but that track screams mega rains just NW of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 2-3" for all of SNE except maybe a bit under 2" for the Cape. Looks like most of the rian is over by late morning on Saturday which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 It's got widespread 2-3" for SNE on may maps...but that track screams mega rains just NW of the track. where's the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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