TalcottWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 That would be a troubling track thinking about rivers etc... would increase runoff from the hills to the rivers.. either way I'm preparing my cellar pump. Eastern mass jackpot of 5" would suck. We live in a triple decker. Our yards are below street level and extremely prone to flooding as the first floor/finished basement is feet below the street. This will be first real test since finishing basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Wow, GFS pumping 3-4" out in spots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 1-2"? Well how much are you forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Well how much are you forecasting?at least 2" for you. you can see the comma head forming now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 at least 2" for you. you can see the comma head forming now Do you feel models will underestimate QPF in this scenario? I just have a feeling they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Think i just heard tornado on ground west palm beach on tv while reading globe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I don't know. I just can't get excited about rains like some of you guys do. 1-3 inches seems like many folks get. But I can't get excited about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Do you feel models will underestimate QPF in this scenario? I just have a feeling they will. It will. This has the look of a band of rain arcing into the center or just north of it, and then you have the crecent shaped band of frontogenesis +RA stretching from SW of the center, to well NE of the center. My concern lies in that band because it may not push NW too much...and then you have the massive low level convergence feeding into that. That's where you double model QPF easily. I'm not saying this will certainly happen..but it's what I envision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 It will. This has the look of a band of rain arcing into the center or just north of it, and then you have the crecent shaped band of frontogenesis +RA stretching from SW of the center, to well NE of the center. My concern lies in that band because it may not push NW too much...and then you have the massive low level convergence feeding into that. That's where you double model QPF easily. I'm not saying this will certainly happen..but it's what I envision. Thanks. I agree with the thoughts as well. The are just to the NW of the track will have some hefty amounts. I'd go anywhere 2-5". There is still the area out my way that will have to deal with the WAA rains out ahead of the track. Likely not as much but still 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I don't know. I just can't get excited about rains like some of you guys do. 1-3 inches seems like many folks get. But I can't get excited about that.It's a whole hell of a lot better then the 75F dp's you root on... tough to get excited about that LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 It's a whole hell of a lot better then the 75F dp's you root on... tough to get excited about that LOLTo each their own. Hope you and Scooter and Ginx and Forky and whomever else wants it gets their record rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Upton taking amounts up-3-4 inches area wide http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 To each their own. Hope you and Scooter and Ginx and Forky and whomever else wants it gets their record rains I don't want record rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 6, 2013 Author Share Posted June 6, 2013 ORH hills FTW (or L depending on one's outlook). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 To each their own. Hope you and Scooter and Ginx and Forky and whomever else wants it gets their record rains what? you dont want to see damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 This isn't something that will give someone 15" of rain..just a 12hr deluge surrounded by periods of mdt to hvy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 what? you dont want to see damage?I enjoy hvy rain in a tstorm, but just something about stratiform rains that don't tickle me. If we had wind this would be exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 To each their own. Hope you and Scooter and Ginx and Forky and whomever else wants it gets their record rains see this is exactly what I was talking about, mention model output and all of a sudden that is what we wish for. I am actually hoping for total meh, a little rain for the reservoirs and rivers and out. Tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 see this is exactly what I was talking about, mention model output and all of a sudden that is what we wish for. I am actually hoping for total meh, a little rain for the reservoirs and rivers and out. Tool And that's how people get confused and misinformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 see this is exactly what I was talking about, mention model output and all of a sudden that is what we wish for. I am actually hoping for total meh, a little rain for the reservoirs and rivers and out. ToolDude you are the Sultan. You're not fooling anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I remember when I used to think all of Kevin's posts were serious, when you realize their not, he gets funnier and funnier, especially when someone gets worked up about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 I will not be happy with less than 5 inches out of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 5" or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 This should be an impressive event for someone. Hard to say exactly where yet, but someone will need to put up the Sultan Signal. I don't think this will be an Irene for NW MA or VT though...not to that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 There is a mulch watch in effect for those in nrn CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 Surprised there is no flood watch for anyone yet-maybe in this afternoon's package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 There is a mulch watch in effect for those in nrn CT.Ill say no more than 2-3" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 This should be an impressive event for someone. Hard to say exactly where yet, but someone will need to put up the Sultan Signal. I don't think this will be an Irene for NW MA or VT though...not to that extreme. Yeah I doubt people can put up those numbers. The one concern I have is that VT and NW Mass have gotten a tremendous amount of rain recently so they're somewhat more vulnerable now than they were prior to Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 This damaging drought has been epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 so much for that This damaging drought has been epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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