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CWG - Complaint/Praise thread


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I love CWG but today cringed when I read an article giving at forecast for the Superbowl this early.   The climo stuff was good but I'm not sure why anyone would go with a forecast so early even if it is a prelim one when we have criticized other groups for doing the same thing.  The science just isn't there.  To me making any statement more than climo is pretty foolish unless you are talking about the averages during a 5 day or seven day period.  the forecast probably relied most of climo with the an ensemble mean thrown in but but at that time range the timing of the shortwaves is likely to be all over the place. 

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I guess today is take the 5th day for me on all fronts.

Ian, no, Steve and I were just voicing our opinion, one we've voiced before concerning specific stomr forecasts in that time range (day 9).  Rick's forecast may be fine as most times it isn't going to snow or rain but some euro ensembles are actually showing around Feb 2nd as a period of interest for us and them.  It also may make my outlook tomorrow look funny as I was planning on saying it was too early to make a call for the Superbowl but we've now already made a prelim call. 

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Ian, no, Steve and I were just voicing our opinion, one we've voiced before concerning specific stomr forecasts in that time range (day 9).  Rick's forecast may be fine as most times it isn't going to snow or rain but some euro ensembles are actually showing around Feb 2nd as a period of interest for us and them.  It also may make my outlook tomorrow look funny as I was planning on saying it was too early to make a call for the Superbowl but we've now already made a prelim call. 

 

Well initially we were going to run it by the usual outlook folks but the snowstorm kind of messed up the planning/timing.  It may have been a mistake to include the specific gamecast as obviously that's pretty much a total guess based on climo. 

 

Honestly, initially it was just going to be all climo stuff as I had the idea right after the Farmers' Almanac came out... for whatever reason we decided to sit on it then a whole bunch of other places including NJ State Climatologist did stuff .. so needed a bit of a different angle. 

 

If it was me on the LR stuff I would have been more vague.. but I think most people realize it's a guess.  My first subtitle for it said "first guess"... I dunno. It didn't seem to get much play either way.. saturated topic at this pt.

 

I don't think you're wedded to it or anything. Steve's comment was a little less compassionate.. we might as well shut down a lot of threads here if there's no use to looking at D10.

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Well initially we were going to run it by the usual outlook folks but the snowstorm kind of messed up the planning/timing.  It may have been a mistake to include the specific gamecast as obviously that's pretty much a total guess based on climo. 

 

Honestly, initially it was just going to be all climo stuff as I had the idea right after the Farmers' Almanac came out... for whatever reason we decided to sit on it then a whole bunch of other places including NJ State Climatologist did stuff .. so needed a bit of a different angle. 

 

If it was me on the LR stuff I would have been more vague.. but I think most people realize it's a guess.  My first subtitle for it said "first guess"... I dunno. It didn't seem to get much play either way.. saturated topic at this pt.

 

I don't think you're wedded to it or anything. Steve's comment was a little less compassionate.. we might as well shut down a lot of threads here if there's no use to looking at D10.

Steve is smart and a friend but he's never been noted for tact.  He probably thinks my outlooks are worthless which may very well be true but as you say, others are doing them.  I think making a day 9 forecast is better than writing an article criticizing school officials.  I even had a friend send me a facebook question about when I was gonna do an editorial.  I didn't know what she was talking about until I read Jason's article and the county's response. 

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Well initially we were going to run it by the usual outlook folks but the snowstorm kind of messed up the planning/timing.  It may have been a mistake to include the specific gamecast as obviously that's pretty much a total guess based on climo. 

 

Honestly, initially it was just going to be all climo stuff as I had the idea right after the Farmers' Almanac came out... for whatever reason we decided to sit on it then a whole bunch of other places including NJ State Climatologist did stuff .. so needed a bit of a different angle. 

 

If it was me on the LR stuff I would have been more vague.. but I think most people realize it's a guess.  My first subtitle for it said "first guess"... I dunno. It didn't seem to get much play either way.. saturated topic at this pt.

 

I don't think you're wedded to it or anything. Steve's comment was a little less compassionate.. we might as well shut down a lot of threads here if there's no use to looking at D10.

 

I don't take Steve too seriously...

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