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March 2013 General Disco


snowstormcanuck

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Warmth the last third of March is going completely against every long term model Ive seen (euro weeklies, cfs weeklies, LR GFS all indicate winter holding firm).

 

We have heard the long term warm-up talk for over a month now... Wishful thinking I believe. Alek was tooting this horn a couple weeks back.... Now the thought of that prognostication brings up the sound of a dial-tone and crickets.

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I took this pic and actually posted it around New Years day. This is of the Rock just outside of town. It was around 4-5' at this point, which is very low. It's now flooding at about 16'. That island with the trees on it near the bridge is completely under water.

The water would be several feet over my head in this pic right now.

201301011434412.jpg

I was in the quad cities area for work today. The house I had to inspect was not flooded, but the road to it was. They picked me up in a johnboat lol!

It is kind of freaky driving along 280 with water all the way up against the roadway.

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Snow has been on and off here all day. i really have no idea how much has actually fallen since it's been accumulating and melting over and over again but I think we're in the 2-4cm range for today. Not bad for mid-March. Still more bursts passing through this evening.

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Snow has been on and off here all day. i really have no idea how much has actually fallen since it's been accumulating and melting over and over again but I think we're in the 2-4cm range for today. Not bad for mid-March. Still more bursts passing through this evening.

 

This is true stat padding snow. It goes in the books but offers very little enjoyment.

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Just a T. Snow piles from the plows and where people dump their snow from shoveling are still impressive though.

 

I'm guessing almost all of the snow in your pic is gone.

It is all gone, high 33F. Fluff+wind+march=snowdeath lol. Only those who had the biggest shoveled piles in a shaded area have any shoveled piles left, and some parking lot plow piles is all thats left of snow here. The 50s/60s for two days demolished many parking lot piles as well.

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I was in the quad cities area for work today. The house I had to inspect was not flooded, but the road to it was. They picked me up in a johnboat lol!

It is kind of freaky driving along 280 with water all the way up against the roadway.

 

Yeah those swampland areas around 280 flood when the Rock floods.  The water is almost up to the road on the main road leaving Erie to the southeast. 

 

Farmland around here has a lot of standing water as well.  Last year at this time the river levels were low and farm fields were pretty dry.  They got the crops in very early due to that dryness, and of course the early warmth.  Was thinking we may be in for another hot summer if dry conditions continued, but the rally in moisture the last few months makes me think we'll have a cooler summer. 

 

EDIT:  A cooler summer than last year, not a cooler than avg summer.

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EDIT:  A cooler summer than last year, not a cooler than avg summer.

 

That's (just about) a no-brainer.

 

Last summer, and Summer 2011 for that matter, were essentially the pinnacle of hot summers. It'll be next to impossible to top them again in our lifetime.

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Feels very winterlike out there this evening. Gusty northwesterly wind, snow flurries in the air. Really happy. Will keep the pesky Canada geese away for a few more weeks!

 

Haha. They tried to come back here late last week, but I noticed the flocks left once it cooled off on Monday. No real open ground to feed on. Doubt they could peck there way through the glacier on the ground!

 

---

 

Down to 23° here with clear skies.

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Seen many geese running north the last few warm days with the strong South winds of late. Tonight going to go outside, soak in the tub and stare at the stars. Absolutly a perfect sky for star watching .... Feeling much like winter than spring tonight :) Will be snowing and accumulating before long.

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That's (just about) a no-brainer.

 

Last summer, and Summer 2011 for that matter, were essentially the pinnacle of hot summers. It'll be next to impossible to top them again in our lifetime.

 

 

The drought over the Plains and western MW were well ahead of last year at this point, so if dry weather would have continued I think this year had a chance to top last quite easily.  Sort of a cumulative effect. 

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The drought over the Plains and western MW were well ahead of last year at this point, so if dry weather would have continued I think this year had a chance to top last quite easily.  Sort of a cumulative effect. 

 

Perhaps.

 

The odds just go against 3 (4 if you count 2010, which I don't, different animal) consecutive record-breaking summers in a row. Even with the drought, there are other things that will be at play as well.

 

Like with the consecutive snowy winters we had, we have to flip back to reality eventually.

 

I'm not saying this Summer won't be hot, but at the same time 2011 and 2012 are really the highest you can set the bar for Summer heat.

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I don't see any prolonged warmup in our future. I was taking a look at the data and it's currently only showing two 60+ degree days in Louisville over the next two weeks. What's even more mind boggling is that the GFS showed eight out of the next 15 days with the temperature not hitting 50.

 

Our average high is 60 March 20th and then by March 29th it's 64. I wouldn't be shocked to see this go down as a top ten coldest March in history if this holds. It looks like there's a chance that Louisville will only hit 60 four or five times this month. I guess this is payback for the past two March's.

 

And with that said, the trees may still be bare by the time April 1st rolls around, that would be crazy for Kentucky standards. Personally, I'm ready for spring unless a surprise upper level low dumps four or five inches of snow. But I doubt that happens. I know the 60's will start coming once April arrives, even if the cold pattern continues.

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Yummy... a local "chase team" posted a euro run showing a foot of snow for Indy and calling for a major snow event Monday.

 

Next.

 

Yeah, I saw that map. Someone on Facebook posted the accuweatherpro Euro 162 hr. snowfall map showing an I-70 special with a stripe of 12" from Central IL into PA and beyond.

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This is true stat padding snow. It goes in the books but offers very little enjoyment.

 

 

Yeah, but it balances out though. When you have days on end of snowpack without aid of any new snow (see the first 10 days of January) its full winter landscape with nothing new in the books.

 

I usually don't disagree with you Josh, as you are many times the voice of reason among MI posters, but in this case I do. When you say that snow cover adds nothing new to the books, that's wrong. Days of snowcover is recorded and looked at by weather historians such as yourself. I do understand that you are looking at it from a winter weather weenie's point of view.

 

I know that many people here would rather hear fingernails across a chalkboard than see the term stat padding used, but in this case, Mike's comment is an example of the proper use of the term. Any time that the ground is bare, a measurable snow falls, then is gone within 1-4 hours I consider a stat padder.

 

For example, years into the future, I'd look at this year and say that it was a good late Dec. snow and good stretch of winter weather with the snowcover in early Jan. However, Feb. was full of stat padders, at least in this area. Many days of measurable snowfall adding up to double digit totals, but nothing over 1.5" on the ground for any one day, averaging just a trace.

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This March has been a cruel joke. Below average temps and below average snow ... what's the point?

 

Yesterday had stiff winds at 30 mph gusting to 38 at a temp of 28. That produces a wind chill of 12. Combined with no snow on the ground and a gloomy sky, mother nature is just trolling us.

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20º at LAF this morning, 19º at IND.

 

Euro's consistency with the Sunday/early Monday deal for central IL/IN/OH is interesting. Seems most forecasters are ignoring it...but I guess it won't be "legit" until the GFS comes on board. 

 

How's Chad's gardening doing?

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