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Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

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Pretty close, but not quite as cool:)  Probably because that was the single best looking plains cyclone I have seen in years. Absolutely slaughtered western NE where I was at the time. A classic example of extreme PV stretching leeside of the Rockies and moist convection greatly enhancing synoptic cyclogenesis.

 

Hope you don't mind, but I am stealing this image.

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I'm just LOVIN' this AFD disco

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

 

 


THE EXPECTATION IS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO IMPACT MUCH OFEASTERN AND ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTOSATURDAY PRIOR TO THE STORM TAPERING OFF INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...BUT FEEL THEDETAILS BELOW CONVEY OUR BEST THINKING.*/PRECIPITATION...SNOW OVERSPREADING THE REGION RESULTING IN VISIBILITIES DOWN TOA QUARTER MILE IN PARTS. ANTICIPATING THE INTENSITY TO PICK UPTOWARDS THE EVENING COMMUTE. PHASING INTO THE STRONGER SOUTHERNSTREAM COUPLET APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...THE EXPECTATION IS FORSNOWFALL RATES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR.ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...THE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR WITHIN THE LOW-MID LVLS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW ALONG THE EPERIPHERY FROM THE SOUTH IS RESULTING IN THE MIXING OVER TO RAIN/INCLUDING THE E CAPE/. MAY EVEN SEE SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONGTHE E COAST OF MA WITH DRAW OF WARMER AIR OFF THE OCEAN. STILL AMANTICIPATING NANTUCKET TO REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. THESE LOCALES SHOULDCHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW INTO THE EVENING HRS.AS THE LOW BOMBS TOWARDS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...ANTICIPATING THELOW-MID LVL THERMAL FIELDS TO COLLAPSE...TIGHTENING WITH RESPECT TOTHE SURFACE LOW. N/NE FLOW SHOULD DRAW DOWN COLD AIR ACROSS ALL OFSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILLINCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ANY RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TOSNOW. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUALLY DRAW SOUTH RESULTING IN SNOWACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE COAST BECOMING FLUFFIER.MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER INTO LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY...GRADUALLYTAPERING WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS OUT INTO THEATLANTIC INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.*/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WHILE INITIAL E-W SNOW-BANDING IS COMING ASHORE...AS THE LOWDEEPENS TO THE NE AND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...THE BANDS SHOULDPIVOT SW-NE WITHIN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE MID-LVL LOW COINCIDENTWITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC TROWALING OF THETAE AXIS...MID-LVLFRONTOGENESIS...AND DEEP-LAYER ENHANCED ASCENT.IT IS WITHIN THESE REGIONS THAT AROUND 3 INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATESWILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE. BANDS MAY BE ONLY 5 TO 10 MILES INWIDTH...AND WITH THE DYNAMICLY DEEP NATURE OF THE STORM IT IS NOTOUT OF THE QUESTION WE MAY SEE THUNDER-SNOW. BUT THE KEY IS THELOCATION OF THE H85-7 LOW AS THE PLACEMENT OF WHICH AND THEATTENDANT DYNAMICS WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES THE HEAVIEST OF SNOWS.THERE REMAINS AN UNCERTAINTY AS DETERMINISTIC SOLNS VARY TO SLIGHTDEGREES IN PLACEMENT OF THE H85-7 LOW.ASIDE...WITH MORE FAVORABILITY TOWARDS THE ECMWF...A LOW-MID LVLBAND SETUP IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND COINCIDENT WITHTHE BETTER DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW /PARALLEL AND LIKELY ALONGTHE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE/.NO SURPRISE...AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH A SURFACE LOW CROSSINGOVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE ORIENTED ALONGAND ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. CONTINUE TO SET MY SIGHTS OFHEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS VICINITY.A MORE MID-LVL BANDING SETUP APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHERN HUDSONRIVER VALLEY ACROSS W MA TOWARDS THE SHORELINE OF MAINE. COULD BESOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.A MAJORITY OF THE BANDING WILL OCCUR BEGINNING AROUND THIS EVENINGCOMMUTE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.Epic, epic storm - You guys are living history - memories are in the process of being made that will last a lifetime. Enjoy!!!
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