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Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

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Noyes will bust on the changeover. BOS isn't raining at any time if it hasn't flipped yet. E winds >20kts for the past 7-8 hours and the best they can do is 33. F"ck you December, it's February now!

 

I'd agree.  It's still at 32 here and snow.  It may flip here for a time but I wouldn't think for more than a few hours and much further north than Marshfield or Duxbury.

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Rough estimate...48hr QPF valid 48hrs

 

0.50" PQI-1V4-MPV

0.75" HUL-BML-RUT

1.00" CYFC-IZG-DDH

1.50" BHB-CON-POU

2.00" PWM-PSM-FIT-CEF-BDR

 

Map for the weenies.

 

http://coolwx.com/analysis/surface/current/stns.ne-large.png

 

Thanks for including that map with it!!!  I should have opened it up before I started googling all the codes.  I'll take 1.5".  Hopefully add a reasonable ratio and eek out some thing good.

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UPDATED snowfall map (final)

 

post-313-0-89197200-1360346947_thumb.jpg

 

Not much change to my earlier forecast, all changes were slight increases with various zones moved 10-20 miles south mainly, also added a 40-inch zone and revised the 3' contour to 35" for continuity. Forecast -- expect large area of 2-3 ft accumulations in southern New England, trending to 1-2 ft NYC metro and n NJ, central LI which receive similar QPF but suffer occasional mixing and lower ratios.

 

Expect steady drop in accum southeast of a zone from Brockton to Fall River with 8-12 inches for south Cape Cod and the Islands. Possible max of 40-45 inches on higher terrain facing east in eastern MA and (isolated) east slope to height of Berkshires.

 

As mentioned before, thundersnow potential looks highest around 06z (0100 EST) to 09z (0400 EST) in an arc extending ISP-eCT-ORH-BOS including most of e MA and n RI. At this time accumulation rates could reach 3-6 inches an hour boosting totals to 30-40 inches locally in favoured upslope locations from se NH across e/c MA into ne CT. A secondary max will probably run down the eastern flank of the Berkshires and into s VT, and a third max can be expected largely off-map in the Catskills and southeast Adirondacks.

 

My predicted track takes center from 38N 72W to the benchmark around 0300h EST into southern Gulf of Maine by 0900h. Furthest northward extension of rain shield would be around midnight then phase will change back in affected areas. Peak wind gusts 85 mph Cape Cod and Islands, 60 mph BOS (80 mph higher elevations) and 55 mph Long Island Sound across Long Island.

 

Short people should wear tall hats for later ease of discovery. Drifts of 7-12 feet possible into early Sunday in parts of e MA.

 

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UPDATED snowfall map (final)

 

attachicon.gifFeb 8-9.jpg

 

Not much change to my earlier forecast, all changes were slight increases with various zones moved 10-20 miles south mainly, also added a 40-inch zone and revised the 3' contour to 35" for continuity. Forecast -- expect large area of 2-3 ft accumulations in southern New England, trending to 1-2 ft NYC metro and n NJ, central LI which receive similar QPF but suffer occasional mixing and lower ratios.

 

Expect steady drop in accum southeast of a zone from Brockton to Fall River with 8-12 inches for south Cape Cod and the Islands. Possible max of 40-45 inches on higher terrain facing east in eastern MA and (isolated) east slope to height of Berkshires.

 

As mentioned before, thundersnow potential looks highest around 06z (0100 EST) to 09z (0400 EST) in an arc extending ISP-eCT-ORH-BOS including most of e MA and n RI. At this time accumulation rates could reach 3-6 inches an hour boosting totals to 30-40 inches locally in favoured upslope locations from se NH across e/c MA into ne CT. A secondary max will probably run down the eastern flank of the Berkshires and into s VT, and a third max can be expected largely off-map in the Catskills and southeast Adirondacks.

 

My predicted track takes center from 38N 72W to the benchmark around 0300h EST into southern Gulf of Maine by 0900h. Furthest northward extension of rain shield would be around midnight then phase will change back in affected areas. Peak wind gusts 85 mph Cape Cod and Islands, 60 mph BOS (80 mph higher elevations) and 55 mph Long Island Sound across Long Island.

 

Short people should wear tall hats for later ease of discovery. Drifts of 7-12 feet possible into early Sunday in parts of e MA.

Like the 30-40 from here up to ORH Roger that ..10-4 Over

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It's amazing.  I love his analysis, but I agree, his posts come off that way.  Not sure why.  Anyway, Euro says, crush, kill, destroy!

 

A run or two ago it had the height of impact overnight into the morning with a stalled low SE or SSE of the Cape.  Where it stalled for a couple/several hours.  The last two runs have moved that what is now a significant amount NE.  Luckily the intensity of what happens the first half of tonight makes up for later.

 

But it's fairly significant as DT mentioned, it was where it stalls that makes or breaks the legendary status.

Ec went SE but is a prolific precip producer

Yep.

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A run or two ago it had the height of impact overnight into the morning with a stalled low SE or SSE of the Cape.  Where it stalled for a couple/several hours.  The last two runs have moved that what is now a significant amount NE.  Luckily the intensity of what happens the first half of tonight makes up for later.

 

But it's fairly significant as DT mentioned, it was where it stalls that makes or breaks the legendary status.

Yep.

 

It's honestly just set up the SE MA area as ground central with the shift SE.  :weenie:

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